Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of the forecast uncertainty of an individual forecaster are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of his recent squared forecast errors, where the number of past forecast errors available decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such samples are investigated. If the forecast uncertainty is estimated by seemingly unrelated regressions, it turns out that the covariance matrix of the squared forecast errors does not have to be estimated, but simply needs to have a certain structure, which is a very useful property in small samples. Considering optimal and non-optimal forecasts, it is found that the efficiency gains can be substantial for longer horizons in small samples. The superior performance of the seemingly-unrelated-regressions approach is confirmed in several empirical applications.     

改革开放以来影响广东省外贸出口因素的实证分析

本文分析了广东省外贸出口与进口、FDI、出口对象国的经济增长及人民币名义汇率等影响因素的长期均衡关系,然后分析了短期中广东省外贸出口量对各影响因素波动的反应。得出结论:长期中,广东省出口额与外国收入、进口额、人民币名义汇率之间存在着正相关关系,而短期内进口额和人民币名义汇率对出口影响较大。     

An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach

This paper estimates time specific values for China's long-run equilibrium exchange rate and develops measures of the direction and extent of misalignment based on a reduced-form real effective exchange rate (REER) model. An appropriately specified long-run equilibrium model is estimated and tested following Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedures, which is then used to construct an estimated time path for long-run equilibrium exchange rate values.Unit root tests indicated that each series can be considered as I(1) and that there was one cointegrating relationship linking the RMB series with its “fundamentals” – openness, money supply, productivity and government spending – with long-run elasticities of (0.41), (0.97), (0.51) and (0.75), respectively. The estimated error-correction model of REER determination showed that during China's latest exchange rate regime (from 2005:Q3) the RMB was undervalued by an average of 6.7 percent, which is modest compared to related studies.Estimation of the associated short-run error correction model shows that the error correction term has a statistically significant value of 0.85, implying that the actual real effective exchange rates would converge relatively quickly (just over one quarter, on average) towards their long-run equilibrium level in the absence of central bank intervention.     

Beauty is the promise of happiness?

We measure the impact of individuals' looks on life satisfaction and happiness. Using six data sets, from Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we construct beauty measures in a number of different ways. Beauty raises happiness: A one standard-deviation change in beauty generates about 0.08 standard deviations of additional satisfaction/happiness among men, 0.07 among women. The finding is robust to a rare opportunity to measure it using an instrumental variables approach. Accounting for a wide variety of covariates, particularly educational, marital, and labor-market outcomes that might be affected by beauty, the gross effects are roughly halved, with small reductions arising from the impact of beauty on monetary outcomes.     

让民主管理在“两全”工作中发挥积极作用

全面责任管理和全员业绩考核机制(简称两全机制)的建立是企业组织、功能、体制、机制中最核心的部分,建立两全机制事关企业转方式、调结构、强机制、增效益的大局,是实现企业科学发展上水平、创先争优常态化的有机融合,是实现做强做优、创建一流企业的有力保障。文章以大唐岩滩水力发电有限责任公司为例,阐述在两全三定过程中民主管理工作的重要性。     

Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens,Greece

We analyze market shares for each public transport mode in total public transport ridership for the multimodal public transportation system of Athens, Greece. This analysis provides useful information for making investment decisions concerning the public transport infrastructure and for allocating subsidies. Due to the non-stationary properties of the data, cointegration techniques are applied to investigate the long run equilibrium relationships. Error Correction Models are implemented to estimate short run dynamics as well as the speed of adjustment from the short to the long run. Results suggest that fare and GDP are the main determinants of the public transport mode shares both in the short and in the long run. Findings also indicate the role of total ridership fluctuations in explaining variations in public transport mode shares.     

整体治理的现实困境与路径选择

整体治理理论主张通过功能整合来为公众提供无缝隙的公共服务，但在实践中面临组织整合的技术困境、组织冲突的协调困境以及合作治理的问责困境。解决这些问题需要对整体治理进行改进和提升：要从注重机构整合转变为注重机构协作，营造整体行动的柔性机制以及建设学习型问责制度。     

A preliminary theoretical examination of the targeted public distribution system in India

A theoretical model of targeting in the public distribution system is set out. In any system of targeting there could be inclusion and exclusion errors. These errors could be reduced by search by the state. The state aims to minimise the costs of food administration subject to keeping the magnitude of the exclusion error bounded. Targeting involves a consideration of the objective poverty level, the official poverty level and the targeted poverty level by the state. The targeted poverty level could be less than the official poverty level if the extent of search is not adequate. The objective poverty level is an increasing function of the above poverty line issue price of food due to exclusion errors, a decreasing function of the procurement price of food and by definition the below poverty line issue price of food. The instruments in the hands of the state are the official poverty level, the above poverty line issue price for food, the procurement price of food and the extent of search. The comparative static implications of the model are set out.     

角速度传感器误差校正研究

某角速度传感器的输入与输出成近似线性关系,测量输出的电压值即可得到目标运动的角速度。为了提高测量的精度,通过对角速度传感器零位和灵敏度的误差进行校正,可得到更为精确的目标运动角速度。实验表明,该校正方法能有效提高角速度传感器的测量精度,有一定的实用性。     

Consumption smoothing in Russia1

Using a panel from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1994–2004), this paper investigates to what extent Russian households have been able to maintain their living standards while suffering income shocks. Consumption smoothing is modelled by means of an equilibrium correction mechanism, which disentangles short‐run dynamics and long‐run equilibrium adjustments. GMM estimation is used to control for individual household effects in the presence of dynamics. Additionally, we differentiate between food and non‐food consumption, positive and negative shocks, rural and urban areas, and several levels of poverty risk. We find that dynamics are important in the consumption equation, and that estimates are sensitive to imputation errors in home food production. No strong claims can be made regarding heterogeneity in smoothing behaviour.