我国区际产业转移的动力机制及其耦合

从作用模式出发,产业转移动力机制可分为三个子系统:市场驱动机制、政府作用机制和自我维持机制。市场驱动机制是推动产业转移最根本的力量,政府作用机制引导企业将产业转移的可能性进一步转化为现实行为,自我维持机制是形成产业转移行为自我强化和路径依赖现象的原因。三者之间互相联系,通过作用于企业这一主体而彼此连接、相互耦合。现实中由于动力机制作用发挥不充分,出现产业转移粘性、行政区划内转移、政策目标偏差等耦合误差。     

项目治理机制改善公共项目管理绩效的研究——以代建人激励效应为中介变量

文章以国内代建制下的公共项目为研究情景,在归纳和总结项目治理理论已有研究成果的基础上,考虑公共项目多层委托代理形成治理结构特殊性,构建出以代建人激励效应为中介变量的"项目治理机制——代建人激励效应——公共项目管理绩效"理论模型,并提出项目治理机制作用于公共项目管理绩效的改善路径假设。通过对147个样本数据的分析,结果表明:公共项目治理机制能够对代建人产生显著的激励效应,代建人的激励效应能够对公共项目管理绩效产生显著的影响,项目治理机制对公共项目管理绩效的直接效应较弱。表明在特定治理结构下,代建人的激励效应是项目治理机制改善公共项目管理绩效的中介变量。研究结果可为政府决策部门完善代建管理制度提供理论支撑。     

公司治理机制、替代效应与代理成本——基于动态内生性的经验研究

以2002-2011年716家上市公司为样本,在动态内生性的框架下,运用动态面板的SystemGMM估计方法,通过“内部工具变量”解决了寻找有效的工具变量的困难,不仅研究了公司治理机制与代理成本间相互作用,还研究了公司治理机制间的交互效应对代理成本的影响.通过研究发现,股权集中度、董事会独立性和管理层持股比例都与代理成本负相关,公司治理机制间存在替代效应.此外,公司治理机制与代理成本间存在动态内生性,即不仅前期公司治理机制对当期代理成本有影响,而且当期代理成本又对下一期公司治理机制产生了反馈效应.     

A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy

In this paper, we draw on both the consistent specification testing and the predictive ability testing literatures and propose an integrated conditional moment type predictive accuracy test that is similar in spirit to that developed by Bierens (J. Econometr. 20 (1982) 105; Econometrica 58 (1990) 1443) and Bierens and Ploberger (Econometrica 65 (1997) 1129). The test is consistent against generic nonlinear alternatives, and is designed for comparing nested models. One important feature of our approach is that the same loss function is used for in-sample estimation and out-of-sample prediction. In this way, we rule out the possibility that the null model can outperform the nesting generic alternative model. It turns out that the limiting distribution of the ICM type test statistic that we propose is a functional of a Gaussian process with a covariance kernel that reflects both the time series structure of the data as well as the contribution of parameter estimation error. As a consequence, critical values that are data dependent and cannot be directly tabulated. One approach in this case is to obtain critical value upper bounds using the approach of Bierens and Ploberger (Econometrica 65 (1997) 1129). Here, we establish the validity of a conditional p-value method for constructing critical values. The method is similar in spirit to that proposed by Hansen (Econometrica 64 (1996) 413) and Inoue (Econometric Theory 17 (2001) 156), although we additionally account for parameter estimation error. In a series of Monte Carlo experiments, the finite sample properties of three variants of the predictive accuracy test are examined. Our findings suggest that all three variants of the test have good finite sample properties when quadratic loss is specified, even for samples as small as 600 observations. However, non-quadratic loss functions such as linex loss require larger sample sizes (of 1000 observations or more) in order to ensure reasonable finite sample performance.     

Oil price shocks and producer prices in Taiwan: an application of non-linear error-correction models

This study estimated the short-term and long-term pass-through effects of oil prices on inflation in Taiwan from 1981M1-2011M5, employing the producer price general index and various basic sub-indices for evaluation. The empirical results show that oil prices have long-term and short-term pass-through effects on Taiwan’s producer price indices. Moreover, producer prices have significant non-linear error-correction relationships with the oil price, output and wages, suggesting asymmetric and time-variant properties of error correction. When the deviation of price in the equilibrium is greater, the error-correction adjustment will be faster. Our findings could therefore enable the monetary authorities and manufacturers to formulate a more effective policy from the oil price shocks.     

The impact of casinos on employment across sectors in Macau

This paper investigates a contemporary issue of Macau concerning the impact of casinos on other sectors’ employment. The long-run and short-run effects are investigated using data-oriented econometric models. In the long-run, the casino boom leads to an employment expansion in other sectors. However, the effect is insignificant in the short-run. Simulations from a theoretical model disclose the pure crowding-out effect of the increased casino employment on other sectors with other things the same as the situation of 2003. During the period 2004–2008, the crowding-out effect is more serious on the non-casino service sector than on the industrial sector. Results from both types of models shed light on policy options.     

碳排放约束条件下江苏省经济增长的影响研究

为江苏战略性能源开发供应提供依据,本文运用线性回归理论和灰色关联度分析江苏省煤炭消费总量及其占能源消费量的比重、三次产业煤炭消费量的变动对节能减排、经济增长等指标的影响及运用线性回归理论和协整理论建立误差修正模型为江苏省在节能减排的基础上及碳排放约束下经济发展措施提供合理的建议。     

土地征用安置补助费计算的误区及其纠正

研究目的:探讨准确体现土地法精神的征地安置补助费计算方法.研究方法:案例解剖法.研究结果:目前多数项目征地安置补助费的计算上存在三个主要偏差:以所谓的"综合价"包含全部土地赔偿费用;按照征用土地数量而非需要安置的农业人口计算安置补助费;夸大和缩小需要安置的农业人口数量.研究结论:提出了准确理解土地法关于安置补助费计算的方式,并给出了计算公式.     

Seasonal Migration and Improving Living Standards in Vietnam

We use panel data methods to explore whether households in Vietnam used seasonal migration to increase their living standards during the 1990s. Using per capita expenditures as our primary measure of living standards and historical and latent network variables as instruments for migration, we can attribute 5.2 percentage points of annualized expenditure growth to increased migration. The results are robust to several alternative measures of living standards. As the estimates suggest migration accounts for a 3 percentage point decrease in the poverty headcount, we conclude migration played an important role in the improvement of living standards observed in Vietnam.     

建立土地利用现状数据库的面积误差分析--以宜宾市高县为例

利用“地星土地变更调查信息系统”软件，建立1：1万土地利用现状数据库(简称建库)面积误差主要来源于原始资料、扫描过程、矢量化过程和数据处理程序；根据以图幅为单元进行理论面积(一级地类面积)与计算机自动产生的面积(一级地类面积)为对象进行误差分析表明，用“地星土地变更调查信息系统”软件进行建库工作，完全能达到国土资源部建库的精度和目前国土部门的数据转换，即由详查数据＋历年变更数据模式向土地利用数据库数据转换。