项目总控的应用及其信息处理规划

随着国内大型建设项目的增多，大型建设项目的实施遇到诸多问题，其原因主要是业主对项目的控制能力不强，从而导致大型建设项目不能实现其质量、进度、投资等预期目标，甚至会导致整个项目的失败，项目总控模式的应用很大程度地解决了这一问题，另外，由于信息处理是项目总控的主要工作，因此，本也讨论了项目总控模式下的信息处理规划。     

Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article

Estimates of central bank intervention losses or profits vary widely; some estimates find substantial losses, others profits. In most cases, estimated profits are not risk-adjusted, and risk adjustment can have large effects. Furthermore, profit estimates involve variables integrated of order one, and because of this test-statistics may have nonstandard distributions; few studies take this into account. Estimates of risk-adjusted profits for the US Fed and the Swedish Riksbank, with allowances for possible nonstandard distributions, suggest that neither made losses and might have made significant profits.     

Cross-hedging foreign currency risk: Empirical evidence from an error correction model

In this article, the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method is extended by applying the theory of cointegration in the case of cross-hedging of spot exchange risk of the Belgian franc (BF), the Italian lira (IL), and the Dutch guilder (NG) with U.S. Dollar Index futures contracts. Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratio estimated by the error correction method is superior to that obtained from the traditional method, as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Hedgers will be able to control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

外汇高顺差形势下外汇统计监测应对策略探讨

在当前外汇收支统计监测中，资本项目和经常项目外汇收支相互融合，离岸外汇收支混入在岸外汇收支，个人跨境外汇收支流动增势迅猛。要加强外汇统计监测，就要加快设计和构建外汇信息统计监测体系，加强统计监测，建立各类监测分析的快捷反应机制。     

我国金融工程发展的市场环境与制度框架

金融工程具有对风险的规避和放大效应。金融工程的发展不仅需要强大的技术手段支持,更需要政府从制度层面进行合理配置。本文分析了金融工程在经济运行中的负面作用,根据当前我国利率、汇率市场化改革的宏观环境,并结合当前国外金融制度建设的基本特征和我国基本国情,提出了我国金融工程发展的制度框架。其中,近期制度建设构想为:加强法规制度建设,优化金融环境,严防金融欺诈;加强监管机构管理,确保其独立性和公平性;加强二级市场管理建设。远期制度建设构想为:进一步强化对产品发行人、合作投资计划、市场中介机构和行业自律等方面的制度约束。     

从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩

从汇率制度角度透视我国当前的商业银行流动性过剩现象,目的在于为经济金融的进一步开放提供理论依据和决策参考。本文通过对“三元悖论”理论的解读和1998～2006年各季度数据的实证检验,揭示了我国商业银行流动性过剩与汇率制度之间存在密切相关性,即在我国现行的汇率制度下,外汇储备的不断增加直接导致了商业银行存差的扩大,造成金融系统乃至整个社会的流动性过剩。基于上述研究,作者提出了如下相关建议:完善我国汇率形成的市场机制,培育相对均衡汇率;深化我国外汇管理体制改革,有序开放资本市场;汇率制度改革要与其他政策改革协调配合。     

当前人民币汇率制度选择的理论思考

任何汇率制度都只是实现经济目标的手段而不是目的,我们在各个时期选择的汇率制度应该是对我国经济发展最有利的制度。在现有的国际货币体系下,如果资本项目尚未开放,则理性的选择应该是固定汇率制度;如果资本项目已完全开放,则实行浮动汇率制是有效而保险的。对于中国这样一个资本账户部分开放的国家,现阶段重新回到真正意义上的有管理的浮动汇率制是必要的,也是可行的。     

税收价格论对强化税收征管的现实意义

税收价格论认为税收是纳税人为消费公共品而向政府支付的“价格”,税收征纳双方在本质上是平等的交换关系。借鉴税收价格论,应当以个人为基点,从利益交换关系的角度,赋予纳税人作为交换一方应有的权利。应在整个公共部门经济的全过程中体现税收本质上的平等交换关系,并以法律的形式予以确定和保护。引进税收价格论,对提供新的税收征管思路,强化税收征管工作,具有重要的现实意义。     

我国涉外企业外汇交易风险研究

随着世界经济逐步向全球一体化的方向发展以及我国对WTO相关条款的逐步履行,我国与其他国家的经济往来也变得更加频繁。更为重要的是,我国外汇管理体制改革的进一步深化和外汇市场的发展和完善,使得人民币汇率开始走向市场,汇率变动的频率和范围将大大增强。因此,在这一背景下,本文以科学性和前瞻性为指导原则,通过阐述我国涉外企业面临的外汇交易风险现状和问题,揭示这类企业加强外汇交易风险管理的必要性,在此基础上,来探讨外汇交易风险对我国涉外企业净利润的影响,最终结合我国外汇管理体制改革的实践,提出有效防范和规避外汇交易风险的建议和对策。     

Incentives and Information Exchange in International Taxation

The exchange of taxpayer-specific information between national tax authorities has recently emerged as a key and controversial topic in international tax policy discussions, most notably with the OECD's harmful tax practices project and the EU's savings tax initiative. This paper analyzes the effects of information exchange and withholding taxes, recognizing that countries which agree to exchange information do not forfeit the ability to levy withholding taxes, and also focusing in particular on the effects of innovative revenue-sharing arrangements. Amongst the findings are that: (i) the transfer of withholding tax receipts to the residence country, as planned in the European Union, has no effect on equilibrium tax rates, but acts purely as a lump-sum transfer; (ii) in contrast, allocating some of the revenue from information exchange to the source country—counter to usual practice (though no less so than the EU agreement)—would have adverse strategic effects on total revenue; (iii) nevertheless, any withholding tax regime is Pareto dominated by information exchange combined with appropriate revenue sharing; and, in particular, (iv) sharing of the additional revenues raised from information provided, while efficiency-reducing, could be in the interests of large countries as a means of persuading small countries to provide that information voluntarily. JEL Code: H77, H87, F42