Current account adjustment in industrial countries

This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10–20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit–GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.     

民爆企业安全生产风险管控的案例分析——以久联化工有限公司为例

民爆行业是国民经济建设的重要基础性产业,近年来得到快速发展。民爆行业属易燃易爆的高危行业,其产品生产和使用的风险性较大,重、特大伤亡事故时有发生,近年来呈多发递增趋势。因此,深入研究分析,完善措施,加强安全生产风险管控工作势在必行。论文以贵阳久联化工有限责任公司为例,分析了其安全生产风险管控方面的不足,运用风险管理理论并结合实际,对该企业的安全生产风险管控体系进行了系统研究,针对关键的风险管理问题提出了改进建议。     

Shibor基准地位确立及对我国货币政策传导效率影响研究

本文运用多种计量方法,对Shibor运行以来基准地位的确立情况以及本轮金融危机爆发以来Shibor基准地位的变动情况进行了分析,探讨了Shibor基准地位的确立对提高我国货币政策传导效率的影响,并提出进一步提高Shibor基准地位的建议。     

浅谈我国企业汇率风险的防范与应对策略

我国企业对外贸易中的汇率风险大多是由于汇率波动所引发的折算风险、利润风险以及汇兑风险等。目前,基于国际金融环境不稳定的背景下,在对外贸易中,我国企业汇率风险在不断地加大,所以,对汇率风险进行防范,进而确保企业经营成果是当前我国外贸企业必须迫切解决的现实问题。本文在分析汇率风险影响外贸企业的基础上,提出了如何对汇率风险进行防范的应对策略,旨在积极有效地规避汇率风险。我国企业只有在对外贸易中应该积极地采取一些应对汇率风险的措施,才能在动荡金融环境下获得生存,进而谋求长远发展。     

Incentive Contract and Weather Risk

We study contracts designed to remunerate a farmer for the production of an ecosystem service with the payment dependent on the results of the farmer’s actions and on weather conditions. Two contracts are proposed: the first takes into account both the results of the farmer’s actions and a weather variable that reflects the actual atmospheric conditions during the life of the contract; the second bases the payment on the results alone incorporating only the average effect of weather. Social welfare is optimal when both the results and the specific atmospheric conditions are taken into account; however, this type of contract may be less acceptable to the farmer due to his perception of the level of risk involved.We thank two referees for valuable comments.     

上市公司控制权转移与市场反应

国外有研究表明,控制权转移能给目标公司股东带来20%左右的超额收益率.本文通过考察我国1997-2003发生控制权转移的282个样本,发现控制权转移能给目标公司带来9%以上的累积超额收益率.而且,转移后变更行业、变更董事长或总经理、民营转给国有的样本转移时可获得的累积超额收益率甚至更高.最后,我们用多元回归模型进一步分析了累积超额收益率的影响因素,进一步证明行业变更、董事长或总经理变更、转移类型对控制权转移的市场反应有显著影响.     

The impact of FIFA’s official announcements on the stock market of Qatar: The case of the 2022 World Cup

This study examines the impact of the FIFA’s official announcements on Doha Stock Exchange (DSE) of Qatar with respect to the 2022 World Cup. Using the abnormal unsystematic volatility method of Hilliard and Savickas (2002), our empirical findings reveal that the DSE market is sensitive to FIFA’s announcements about the 2022 World Cup. We find that four out of six FIFA announcements act as primary drivers to the DSE market volatility. The significant reactions of the DSE market to these announcements unveil the investors’ sentiments about the fate of the governmental and private expenditures on medium- and long-term projects undertaken in anticipation of hosting the 2022 World Cup. The results have some implications to investors in this newly emerging market related to this global sporting event. Any future announcements, good or bad, are likely to impact share prices in DSE market and trigger portfolio reallocation by local and international investors, leading to increased volatility.     

我国四部门金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的影响——基于空间溢出视角

基于金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的区域内和区域间作用机制的理论分析,运用空间偏微分方法,依据测算出的2010—2019年我国各省(区、市)四部门金融杠杆和系统性金融风险数据,考量我国四部门金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的空间溢出。结果显示：我国系统性金融风险具有较强的空间趋同性特征;由于金融杠杆部门结构和所在区域的不同,其对系统性金融风险的区域内溢出存在显著差异;此外,金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的区域间外溢效应明显,忽视该区域间溢出,将不利于准确评估金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的冲击。     

信息披露、市场约束与银行风险承担行为

文章运用我国14家主要商业银行2000-2008年间的数据,实证研究了银行信息披露与其风险承担行为之间的关系,研究表明信息披露能否发挥其市场约束功能取决于相应的制度基础和市场环境,只有当金融体系的市场化程度较高,且银行能充分有效地披露其风险信息时,来自债权人的市场约束行动才能真正发挥对银行风险承担行为的约束作用.