经济政策主要变量对控制中国失业率有效性的实证检验

随着中国经济的增长,失业率却一直居高不下,因此国家采取各种手段进行宏观调控。在回顾各种经济学派对失业理论研究的基础上,着眼于经济政策对控制失业率是否有效,在简要分析货币政策和财政政策对失业率影响的基础上,选取1991—2011年中国城镇登记失业率、货币发行量以及财政支出,通过对三者进行单位根检验和Johansen协整检验,得到三者存在唯一的协整关系,并建立误差修正模型,得出货币发行量对失业率影响较大并且较稳定的结论,并通过格兰杰因果检验,得出货币发行量和财政支出与失业率之间都不存在因果关系,最后在实证研究的基础上对当前中国如何控制失业率提出相应的对策。     

中国金融危机法构建的探讨

本次震撼全球的美国金融危机给世人敲响了金融危机不定时爆发的警钟。全球化背景下金融危机的传染性更强、金融风险更大。中国相对脆弱的金融体系需要探索如何防范金融系统性风险,如何健全金融监管体系的制度与法制建设。随着人民币国际化过程深入,制定并颁布《金融危机法》能克服目前金融监管纵向监管体系缺陷,对提高我国金融监管机构应对金融危机能力、稳定金融市场与保增长具有重要意义。     

Experimental evidence on the ‘insidious’ illiquidity risk

This paper introduces an experiment aiming to investigate the contribution of illiquidity risk to the total risk of a collective investment project. If implemented, the project succeeds with a known probability. Yet the project fails if the quota of investors is not reached in the first place. Hence strategic uncertainty compounds its effect with the “intrinsic risk” of the project. Results confirm the insidious nature of illiquidity: as long as a first collective default does not occur, investors accept high intrinsic risk projects. After a first default, they become extremely prudent and come back to market only gradually. After several defaults, private agents manage to coordinate on a relatively low intrinsic risk above which they refuse to participate in the project. Macroeconomic policy implications follow.     

Introduction to special section on “Risk and Technology”

Technology has grown rapidly, a characteristic of our advancing civilization. Technology provides many valuable tools, but also introduces new risks. This special section of Technological Forecasting and Social Change provides the state of the art studies of risk and technology management.     

风险厌恶测定与我国银行治理效率的实证研究

基于FDIC对商业银行贷款损失所设定的概率分布,本文利用VaR方法对商业银行风险厌恶程度进行了测定,并利用我国上市银行2004～2008年间的财务数据对商业银行的风险厌恶程度进行了实证分析,结果表明商业银行的风险控制可以反映其风险厌恶程度,风险厌恶程度在风险控制中得到充分体现.银行的风险厌恶程度越高,净资产回报率越高.     

资源税改革中的税率选择:一个资源CGE模型的分析

长期以来,资源税改革一直受到社会各方关注,目前相关研究成果多集中于定性分析,对资源税税率的设置更缺乏定量研究.本文构建资源CGE模型,引入资源账户,通过枚举法对资源税对资源税税率设置的合理范围进行定量分析,研究资源税税率设置的合理区间.研究结果表明:如资源税税率设置合理,可以有效增加资源税税收收入,大幅减少资源消耗,增加社会福利,促进社会经济的可持续发展.     

商业关系中的感知风险、信任与控制

本文提出了一个商业关系背景下感知风险、风险态度与信任的概念模型。从整体上来说,环境风险和关系风险同时影响信任的建立,但有着不同的机制;而信任影响决策者感知风险的效应是通过影响决策者的决策框架,即决策者加工、处理决策问题的方式来实现的。而信任同时通过影响决策者的决策框架,影响决策者的风险态度,进而影响信任建立的过程。     

Preferences in the Future

Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay.