A Disaggregated Econometric Model Based on Flexible Functional Forms

This paper introduces an econometric input—output model for Western Germany in a disaggregation of 12 commodities and sectors. The ‘Jorgenson’-type equilibrium model is based on flexible functional forms on the supply and on the demand side of the commodity markets. For intermediate demand, the relationship between the translog function and its special cases—the Cobb-Douglas function— is exploited. Prices and production are endogenized by market-clearing conditions. The fully integrated model also endogenizes capital accumulation, a rudimental govern-ment budget and income distribution, as well as wages and labour demand on rationed labour markets. The results of a dynamic ex post simulation show that the model is able to depict the sectoral economic development in Germany in the sample period from 1970 to 1986.     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.     

Closing the Canadian Input–Output Model: Homogeneous vs Non-homogeneous Household Sector Specifications

This paper addresses, on both theoretical and empirical fronts, the task of endogenizing the household sector in a rectangular input–output (IO) model. The formulation of Miyazawa (1976) for square models is extended to the development of an impact matrix for rectangular models. This allows for the numerous household revenue sources to be built into the model. A closed model with non-homogeneous households is developed where individuals are modelled individually and by industry. The perform ance of the non-homogeneous household sector model is compared with a model that has a homogeneous household sector. The model with the non-homogeneous household sector is more sensitive to changes in wages and salaries than to changes in final demand.     

基于Lee-Cater模型的养老保险个人账户缺口研究

鉴于个人账户计发月数未能体现持续的寿命延长,无论做实的个人账户还是处于空账状态的个人账户,个人账户的计发月数与实际支付月数的差异,都会使得实际支付远远超过个人账户实际或记账累积资金,同时账户资金的可继承性,将进一步扩大个人账户缺口。本文通过Lee-Ca-ter模型预测预期寿命的变化,研究死亡率改进对个人账户缺口的影响,以及死亡率和贴现率对个人账户缺口的共同作用。     

旅游扶贫发展的本质及其影响因素

＂贫困问题＂始终是一个世界性的难题,威胁着人类的生存与发展,而消除贫困是人类面临的共同任务。随着旅游业的蓬勃发展,它对社会经济的拉动作用逐渐凸显,人们逐渐开始把寻求解决贫困问题的目光投向旅游业,期望借助旅游业的带动作用找到解决贫困问题的方法。只有真切理解旅游扶贫发展的本质,在旅游扶贫发展实践中才会有的放矢。旅游扶贫发展的对象首先体现在旅游扶贫发展的目标地区方面,其次体现在旅游扶贫发展的目标人口方面。旅游扶贫发展在培育经济增长点,探索脱贫致富新路等领域具有积极意义,但是旅游扶贫发展作为一种特殊的开发、开放扶贫方式,它需要具备一定的发展因素。     

动机因素对大学生英语自主学习的影响

自主学习,作为现代外语教育的一个重要目标,在英语教学中受到越来越多的关注。从英语学习的情感因素角度出发,阐述了英语学习动机与自主学习之间的相关性,探讨了在大学阶段如何通过对学生学习动机的激发与维持,促进英语自主学习。     

城市居住区内家庭直接能耗碳排放差异研究

家庭能源消费对环境的影响已经成为可持续发展领域热点研究课题之一。基于微观视角,采用多段抽取的方法从南阳市一商业居住区内选取128户家庭进行住户的调研,针对具有不同的家庭规模、家庭收入、房屋所有权、家庭成员节能意识及能源知识掌握程度的家庭,分别分析了其直接能耗CO2排放量和结构上的差异。用多元逐步回归的方法,得到了家庭成员节能意识强烈度、家庭人口、家庭成年人平均文化程度、能源知识掌握程度等是造成同一居住区内家庭CO2排放差异的显著性因子,家庭成员节能意识的强烈程度、能源知识的掌握程度与家庭直接能耗CO2排放量呈负相关,因此,加强对居民的能源知识的普及和节能意识的强化可以降低家庭直接能耗的CO2排放量。     

要素价格扭曲与经济失衡之间的互动关系研究

劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格扭曲与宏观经济失衡之间存在互动关系。通过建立超越对数生产函数,估算改革开放以来中国劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格的绝对和相对扭曲程度,继而建立VAR模型,考察各内生变量之间的脉冲响应关系。研究表明,要素价格扭曲和宏观经济失衡之间存在相互强化的互动关系。应从调整供给结构、增加政府民生支出、改革要素价格形成机制、提高生产效率等多方面着手,实现宏观经济再平衡。     

中国向低碳经济转型的制约因素及发展模式

工业化、城市化大量消耗化石能源而引发的全球气候变暖已威胁到全球的生态平衡,触及到能源安全、生态安全、水资源安全和粮食安全,甚至威胁到人类的生存。以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础的低碳经济是应对全球气候变暖,实现可持续发展的具体路径和必由之路。我国在向低碳经济转型过程中,能源结构、产业结构以及能源消耗方面都面临着诸多不利因素,在全球产业分工体系中也处于低端位置。我国应建立一种政府、市场、微观经济主体(企业、居民)三方共同参与、相互作用、相互影响的发展模式,加快制定国家战略和法制保障体系,优化能源结构,发展替代能源,建立碳交易市场。     

入世十周年中国外贸:质变、驱动因素及趋势

中国加入世界贸易组织10年来,贸易额在取得巨量增长的同时,贸易结构方面发生了5个显著的质变。入世效应、强势贸易政策、量增价升、自由贸易区网络、外贸体制改革是其中5个最为重要的原因。"十二五"时期,要从6个方面不断拓展对外开放广度和深度,提高开放型经济水平。