物流外包相关专用性投资决策和激励合同的优化设计

由于关系专用性投资产生的套牢风险,设计了基于专用性投资的收益共享激励合同;通过对模型的分析优化与计算,得到了信息不对称条件下第三方物流企业的最优专用性资产投资水平和外包企业的最优激励合同设计;分析了合同中影响物流产出分享份额的因素及相互之间的关系,为外包企业对第三方物流企业的激励提供参考。     

金融发展、经济增长及政府职能——文献综述和基于中国经济的分析

简要回顾了改革开放以来中国金融发展历程;介绍了两种经济增长理论,即平衡增长理论和非均衡增长理论;阐述了金融发展与经济增长的关系;并对政府作用的三种理论:亲善市场理论、国家推动发展论,市场增进论进行了探讨与分析;最后提出了政策建议。通过对经济增长模式、金融发展的衡量指标,以及传统的政府职能理论方面的分析,为中国转型阶段的政府职能导向提出一些初步的见解。     

Econometric Analysis of Managers' Judgements on the Determinants of the Financial Situation in Russia

The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models.     

Unraveling the Genetic Component of Multifactorial Diseases: Dream or Reality

The etiology of many human diseases is complex and very likely involves a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. A popular strategy to detect genetic risk factors is to perform a systematic screening of the genome searching for linkage. The power of such and approach depends very much on the unknown characteristics of the genetic factors and the main difficulty is to establish a good trade-off between false positives and false negatives. Besides, a precise localisation of the risk factor will generally not be obtained. The set up of a candidate gene stratery is necessary to go further in genetic factor identification. It is likely that for multicfactorioal diseases the only genetic risk factors that can be detected are those with fairly strong effect. Even in that case, it is important to design strategies which increase the power of detection and provide for a better evaluation of the associated risks.     

The Methodology of Risk Perception Research

Risk perception is not strictly a matter ofsensory perception, but of attitudesand expectations. As such, it can be studied byreasonably well developed methods of attitudemeasurement and psychological scaling. Suchmeasurement needs to be applied in a pragmaticfashion, however, since the discussions of fundamentalmeasurement and requirements of scale levelsappropriate for various types of statistical analysis hasfailed in establishing a useful basis for empiricalresearch. The paper also discuses samplingprocedures and the response rateproblem. In risk perception work, there is usually abias involving too many respondents withan above average level ofeducation, but that variable tends to be weaklyrelated to risk perception variables. Finally,post-modern claims and their rejection ofquantitative methods are critically discussed.     

新形势下高校财务管理改革浅析

高校财务管理能力是高校核心竞争能力的重要组成部分。随着高校招生规模的扩大,生源构成的复杂化,经费来源的多元化以及高校贷款规模迅速增大,高校财务管理工作面临着巨大的挑战。因此,我们有必要从制度、观念、会计、融资等方面不断创新并提高高校财务管理能力,提高资金使用效益,以促进学校健康发展。     

关于中石化财务管理目标的研究

随着社会的进步,国有企业的财务管理目标不断地更新。现阶段我国国有企业的财务管理目标为社会价值最大化,中石化作为国企巨头,在实践当中更应起到表率作用。本文从企业价值跟社会责任两方面入手,对该企业财务管理目标进行相关研究。     

基于DCC模型的上市银行系统风险实证研究

本文应用DCC多元GARCH模型分析上市银行股票价格的动态相关性,并以此作为银行整体风险的度量监测指标,在模型的构建中考虑了系统风险的时变特征。结果表明,相关系数的大小和动态变化能够对银行系统性风险起到一定的监测和预警作用。本次金融危机过后,银行间动态相关水平一直处于高位,表明投资者对未来银行资产质量和其潜在风险仍然存在担忧。     

第三方物流企业开展仓储创新服务问题分析

介绍了当前第三方物流企业仓储创新服务的运作现状,并就存在的问题与风险提出相应的解决措施,以实现风险管理的优化与服务水平的提高,希望从一定程度上为提升第三方物流企业的利润空间与市场竞争力提供帮助。     

会计师事务所与客户的双边匹配

以2013年至2018年A股上市公司及为其提供审计服务的国内会计师事务所为研究样本,基于双边匹配理论探讨了审计市场中会计师事务所与企业之间的匹配情况对审计质量和审计风险的影响。研究结果表明,综合实力较强的会计师事务所倾向于与综合实力较强的企业进行匹配,呈现出审计双方综合实力相当的一种正向类聚匹配：当双方匹配程度越高时,企业可操纵性应计利润较少,审计质量越高;同时,当审计双方匹配度越高时,审计风险越低。上述结果证实了审计市场上会计师事务所与客户匹配的有效性和重要性,并对通过双边匹配提高会计师事务所的审计质量、降低审计风险,为审计市场资源优化配置提供了理论指导。