从“大萧条”看中美两国应对当前金融危机之策

本文站在历史的角度，审视与检讨中关两国政府在应对当前由次贷风暴引发的金融危机中的得与失。历史是一面镜子，发生在20世纪30年代的世界性大萧条与今日美国金融危机在很多方面具有相似之处。以史为鉴，在百年一遇的危机面前，各国政府应携手并进，同舟共济，避免陷入更深的困境。当前的局势为中国充分展示负责任大国的形象提供了契机。     

Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets

We examine the presence or absence of asymmetric volatility in the exchange rates of Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY), all against US dollar. Our investigation is based on a variant of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model, using daily realized variance and return series from 1996 to 2004. We find that a depreciation against USD leads to significantly greater volatility than an appreciation for AUD and GBP, whereas the opposite is true for JPY. Relative to volatility on days following a positive one-standard-deviation return, volatility on days following a negative one-standard-deviation return is higher by 6.6% for AUD, 6.1% for GBP, and 21.2% for JPY. The realized volatility of EUR appears to be symmetric. These results are robust to the removal of jump component from realized volatility and the sub-samplings defined by structural-changes. The asymmetry in AUD, GBP and JPY appears to be embedded in the continuous component of realized volatility rather than the jump component.     

基于引力模型的中美农产品贸易边境效应研究

针对中美两国在农产品贸易上的新变化,应用引力模型的派生模型——边境效应引力模型对中美两国农产品贸易的流量和流向进行理论和实证研究。首先介绍了边境效应引力模型基本模型的推导过程,并引入了调整模型。然后采用1987至2005年其中5年的截面数据进行计算,结果发现:中美农产品贸易的边境效应显著存在,且呈逐年下降趋势;两国之间的农产品贸易边境效应存在流向和区域上的差异;距离的平方并不影响模型的可靠性。     

现代企业财务风险的测定和防范

在市场竞争环境下，现代企业面临的各种风险不断增多，财务风险作为企业特有的风险日益突出，是企业利用融资财务杠杆的直接后果，企业必须重视财务风险的测定和防范，以增强企业财务实力。     

迎接知识经济时代 实现财务管理创新

随着知识经济的日益发展,尤其是我国改企建制工作的广泛推行和进一步深化,勘察设计企业为了能更好地应对市场竞争的挑战,其日常运作的各项工作就需要有所改进。而作为企业管理的核心,财务管理则需要密切配合企业改制工作的整体部署,进行相应的创新。本文结合勘察设计企业的实际情况,谈谈实现财务管理创新的几点思路。     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

强化企业集团财务预算管理

财务预算是行为计划的量化,能使管理者全盘考虑整个企业集团价值链之间的相互联系,保证企业各项目标的不断提高和优化,是体现企业业绩的一种好的管理模式。财务预算的全过程会促进管理者及全体员工面向未来,促进发展,有助于增强预见性,避免盲目行为,激励员工完成企业的目标。强化企业集团的财务预算管理,必须采取一系列对策措施,才能行之有效。     

优化我国产融生态链的若干思考

现代经济已日趋复杂，经济风险也日益增大。寻找产融生态链新形式的必要性已经 不仅仅是为了筹集资金，更增加了一层防范风险的需要。为此，政府必须努力改善产融生态链，重塑金融机构和企业的关系。在借鉴发达国家产融生态链的经验基础上，提出了优化我国产融生态链几点建议。     

谈企业集团财务竞争优势的建立

本文针对国际上出现的安然等破产事件和国内近期的德隆国际企业集团的财务危机，探讨财务风险价值管理在企业集团可持续发展过程中的功能与角色定位，并从以创造价值为导向的财务战略思想来构建企业集团财务竞争优势。