跨境电商对华商网络贸易的效应分析

在就跨境电商对华商网络贸易所具有的替代效应与互补效应进行理论分析的基础上,利用古诺模型分析市场均衡的结果及贸易效应,采用面板数据实证检验跨境电商对华商网络贸易的影响,结果表明跨境电商对华商网络贸易的互补效应大于替代效应：一方面,由于华商网络对出口贸易的影响尤为显著,而跨境电商平台又以出口贸易为主,从而跨境电商对华商网络出口贸易的影响较大;另一方面,跨境电商平台偏向于差异化产品贸易,因而跨境电商对差异化产品的华商网络贸易有着较大影响。也就是说,跨境电商对华商网络贸易的互补效应在出口贸易与差异化产品贸易上表现得尤为显著。     

系统性金融风险的历史考察与防范对策

深入学习习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告,在考察20世纪以来的12次金融危机的基础上,对系统性金融风险发生的根源进行了研究,并结合我国当前系统性金融风险面临的形势,提出了防范系统性金融风险的对策建议。研究表明,将过去100多年引发金融危机的系统性金融风险的根源与我国当前的金融形势进行比较分析,可以发现我国面临的系统性金融风险形势十分严峻,必须在党的领导下,采取打击金融腐败、适当收紧货币政策、完善金融监管体系、维护币值稳定、加强金融科技监管等相关政策来防止系统金融风险的发生。     

特许权价值、最优关闭策略和存款保险定价

随着存款保险制度的推出以及金融机构退出机制的完善,国家声誉将逐渐退出银行无形资本。在激励相容的金融监管趋势下,特许权价值等市场约束力量会显著影响到商业银行的风险承担。在此逻辑基础上,以我国16家上市商业银行为研究对象,一方面探讨特许权价值影响下不同产权结构的商业银行的最优救助机制,另一方面通过最优救助临界指标,利用银行重组模型,推导合理的存款保险风险差别费率。     

地方财政压力与投资多样性——基于所得税分享改革的研究

利用企业所得税分享改革构建强度倍差模型,使用1997—2012年全国地级市数据,检验了地方财政压力对于投资多样性的影响及相关传导机制。结果表明,地方财政压力不利于投资多样性的提高;在财政压力下,地方容易形成偏向房地产行业的投资倾向。然而,不同地区地方财政压力对投资结构的影响存在异质性。经济发展水平较低的地区在财政压力下更容易降低投资多样性;而经济发展水平高的地区应对财政压力时,更倾向于通过多元化投资的方式做大税基、减轻财政压力。优化分税制结构、建立地方性税种能缓解地方财政压力,对于改变地方“房地产集中型”投资结构有一定的积极作用。     

Competing with complementors: An empirical look at Amazon.com

Research Summary : Platform owners sometimes enter complementors' product spaces and compete against them. Using data from Amazon.com to study Amazon's entry pattern into third‐party sellers' product spaces, we find that Amazon is more likely to target successful product spaces. We also find that Amazon is less likely to enter product spaces that require greater seller efforts to grow, suggesting that complementors' platform‐specific investments influence platform owners' entry decisions. While Amazon's entry discourages affected third‐party sellers from subsequently pursuing growth on the platform, it increases product demand and reduces shipping costs for consumers. We consider the implications of these findings for complementors in platform‐based markets. Managerial Summary : Platform owners can exert considerable influence over their complementors' welfare. Many complementors with successful products are pushed out of markets because platform owners enter their product spaces and compete directly with them. To mitigate such risks, complementors could build their businesses by aggregating nonblockbuster products or focusing on products requiring significant platform‐specific investments to grow. They should also develop capabilities in new product discovery so that they could continually bring innovative products to their platforms.     

Do investors actually value sustainability? New evidence from investor reactions to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI)

Research Summary: Research exploring investor reactions to sustainability has substantial empirical limitations, which we address with a large‐scale longitudinal financial event study of the first global sustainability index, DJSI World. We examine investor reactions to firms from 27 countries over 17 years that are added, deleted, or continue on the index. We find that once relevant controls and comparisons to observationally equivalent firms beyond the index are included, DJSI events have only limited significance and/or materiality. Nonetheless, investors' valuation of sustainability around the world has evolved over time, involving diminishing reactions to U.S. firms and increasing benefits, particularly of continuation on the index, over time. The study highlights the importance of careful analysis and longitudinal global samples in making inferences about the financial effects of social performance. Managerial Summary: The debate about how investors perceive corporate social responsibility (CSR) predates Milton Friedman's famous statement that the only social responsibility of business is to increase profits. Although extensive research has studied whether sustainability contributes to financial performance, we have yet to understand whether investors believe it pays off. This financial event study of reactions to the addition, continuation, and deletion from DJSI World, the first global sustainability index, shows that investors care little about DJSI announcements. Nonetheless, there is some evidence that global assessments of sustainability are converging and that investors may increasingly be valuing continuation on the DJSI, suggesting that firms may gain at least limited benefits from reliable sustainability activities.     

The HRM–capital market link: Effects of securities analysts on strategic human capital

This article develops theory about an agency problem affecting the strategic human capital (SHC) of the firm. It proposes three categories of SHC‐related choices managers must make that imply a trade‐off between near‐ and long‐term performance. Dispersed shareholding, firm coverage by securities analysts, and their practice of publishing quarterly earnings forecasts are argued to entail a bias in management incentives, shifting the balance in this trade‐off toward near‐term performance. To restore the balance, securities analysts would need to distinguish transitory from recurring effects of SHC‐related choices in their valuation models (e.g., treating certain labor cost savings during cyclical downturns as transitory). Restoring the balance would also require them to anticipate long‐term effects in their long‐term earnings forecasts (e.g., long‐term positive effects of retaining employees with valuable skills during cyclical downturns). The article discusses specific transitory cost effects and long‐term effects they could potentially take into account. The skills and incentives needed by analysts to account for such effects are argued to vary across firm segments.     

金融周期、通货膨胀与货币政策

本文在传统新凯恩斯三方程模型的基础上引入金融周期方程,尝试在一个统一的模型框架下探讨金融周期、通货膨胀与货币政策的内生时变动态关系。研究发现,金融危机时期和非危机时期金融周期与通货膨胀间的相互时变联动存在显著差异,金融周期波动对通货膨胀变动具有较好的预测能力,且基本不受危机影响;货币增速剪刀差可能通过市场流动性对货币政策调控金融周期与通货膨胀的力度起到抵消或放大作用,且具有顺周期特征,因此,货币政策当局可考虑引入逆周期调节的宏观审慎政策对金融周期、通货膨胀以及货币增速剪刀差的顺周期局限进行调控。     

Examining the influencing factors of intention to share accommodations in online hospitality exchange networks

ABSTRACT

CouchSurfing is a free social-network-based online hospitality exchange network, aptly representing a new sharing economy phenomenon. Based on social capital theory and previous literature, this study attempts to answer why hosts help strangers without any expected economic benefit within online hospitality exchange networks. An empirical study based on a Web survey conducted with CouchSurfing hosts reveals that the most identified antecedents (enjoy helping, shared narratives, desire to make friends, and reciprocity) are significantly related to hosts’ intention to share accommodations. Interestingly, the overshadowing effect of trust in CouchSurfing on the intention to share accommodations is also found.     

基于非线性效应的第三方支付平台兼容性研究

本文在设定网络外部性效用为符合梅特卡夫法则的非线性函数条件下,构建双寡头支付平台兼容和不兼容两种情况下的优化模型,探讨双寡头支付平台的兼容性策略选择问题。研究发现,规模对称的双寡头支付平台兼容之后,两家支付平台的利润、消费者效用及社会福利均会增加;银联成立后中国工商银行的银行卡业务利润得以提升也验证了模型结果。建议政府借鉴银联的成功经验,使银联在线成为各支付平台的聚合型平台,提高第三方支付清算系统的效率。