支持辽宁文化事业大发展的财政政策研究

文化建设是中国特色社会主义总体布局的重要组成部分,文化发展离不开财政的大力支持。财政政策的目标应与辽宁省国民经济以及文化发展的目标相一致。财政政策主要是拉动文化增长的政策,着力点应放在扩大内需上。为了促进辽宁文化事业的大发展、大繁荣,必须制定相应的财政支持政策,而且应做到多项并举。     

Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion

This paper investigates the impact of government spending on output and the size of the spending multiplier during periods of output contraction and expansion. It also investigates the impact of spending when the economy hits the nominal zero lower bound. It uses a panel of 21 advanced countries over the period of 1979–2011, applying a TSLS estimation technique. We find a spending multiplier of close to 1 during expansion and values of up to 3 during contractions. However, our results do not indicate a difference in the impact of spending during nominal zero lower bound periods.     

Validating a customer well-being index related to natural wildlife tourism

This study reports an attempt to validate a customer well-being (CWB) index related to natural wildlife tourism. It was hypothesized that the CWB index related to wildlife tourism has a positive influence on travel outcomes (length of stay, number of visits, and total expenses), mediated by perceived value and customer loyalty. These hypotheses were tested using four waves of surveys of customers (overnight visitors) intercepted at the park in a two-year period. The survey data provided support for the hypotheses, which, in turn, lend validation support to the CWB index. Managerial implications of the customer well-being index are also discussed.     

Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.     

Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya

Kenya's fiscal policy landscape is characterized by primary deficit spending forcing the government to rely on debt to meet its objectives. The justification often being that as a developing economy, annual growth rates and future prospects may in the short run justify the uptake of debt to finance infrastructural development. However, given potential fiscal limits, fiscal cycles usually alternates between sustainable and unsustainable regimes and this has a bearing on long run sustainability. This study therefore sought to investigate the nature of fiscal policy regime in Kenya and the extent to which fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run taking into account periodic regime shifts. Markov switching models were used to endogenously determine fiscal policy regimes. Regime switching tests were used to test whether No-Ponzi game condition and debt stabilizing condition were met. The results established that regime switching model was suitable in explaining regime sustainable and unsustainable cycles. An investigation of fiscal policy regimes established that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes were dominant, and each lasted for an average of four years. There was evidence to imply the existence of procyclical fiscal policy in Kenya. Regime switching tests for long run sustainability suggested that the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy. Regime-based sensitivity analysis indicated that persistence of unsustainability regime for more than 4 years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability.     

New development: Fiscal reform in South Korea: looking back and moving forward

ABSTRACT

At first glance, it seems that South Korea’s three fiscal systems (mid-term expenditure framework, top-down budgeting, and performance management) function well. However, each fiscal system operates separately and they are inefficient because they follow past practices. This article explains what the problems are and how to overcome them.     

Twenty-year review of South African fiscal policy: A tale of two sustainabilities

In 2014 democracy in South Africa was 20 years old. The democratic government in 1994 inherited both a high and increasing public debt/gross domestic product ratio and significant development backlogs. The government had to establish fiscal sustainability, yet also pursue development in a sustainable way. This article explores the government's performance in reconciling fiscal sustainability with sustainable development. The article shows that fiscal policy has been sustainable over the 20 years, with some risks appearing towards the end, and that the government pursued sustainable development through reallocating resources within the budget and by spending more in real terms. Three phases can be identified: 1994–2000, 2001–08 and 2009–13. However, poor service delivery and low levels of government investment during the 20 years threaten to undermine economic growth. Lower growth consequently threatens the sustainability of both fiscal policy and development, which, in turn, again undermines growth prospects. Hence, the article also identifies key future challenges.     

Lessons from the recent economic crisis: the Australian household stimulus package

This paper provides an impact evaluation analysis of the 2009 Australian Household Stimulus Package, which was composed by three main cash payments: the Back to School Bonus, the Single Income Family Bonus and the Tax Bonus for Working Australians. Using panel data from the 2008 and 2009 HILDA surveys, the results show that these cash payments reduced the risk of poverty and stimulated consumption expenditure. Nonetheless, only the Back to School Bonus and the Single Income Family Bonus were really important in achieving these goals, while the Tax Bonus for Working Australians did not contribute to stimulate consumption and failed to reduce the risk of poverty. Thus, the analysis confirms the crucial role of governments to protect the most vulnerable groups avoiding a dramatic deterioration of social outcomes and favoring a fast economic recovery when interventions are timely and well-targeted.     

新冠肺炎疫情、金融市场震荡与金融危机

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延后,美国等国家金融市场出现大幅度震荡,历史罕见。金融市场震荡是疫情影响投资者信心,金融市场本身的风险需要释放,以及经济基本面悲观预期等因素共同作用的结果。目前来看,疫情对实体经济造成冲击,疫情应对情况也在很大程度上决定了金融市场震荡是否演化为全球金融危机,国外金融市场震荡对国内金融市场的传导需要审慎理性处理。