供应链共享信息准确度研究

信息共享在供应链协调过程中发挥着重要的作用,而共享信息准确度是关键。基于一个供应商和一个零售商组成的两层供应链模型,比较两者非信息共享与信息共享状态下的收益,得出信息共享准确度对于整个供应链绩效的影响,提出了提高共享信息准确度的措施。     

测控通信系统射频资源可重组技术

测控通信系统的资源重组将是飞行器测控通信系统的发展方向。在中频实现测控终端重组的基础上,通过对射频重组构架的分析,得出了射频交换网络的性能和射频远距离传输的性能直接影响射频重组的可行性,提出了一种可行的全系统资源重组的测控体系构架,即采用微光电子射频交换网络与射频光波传输技术实现射频信号大规模交换及远距离传输,再结合中频重组以实现全系统资源重组,并对相关性能进行了分析。所提出的设计思路可供测控通信系统实现全体系的资源重组借鉴及参考。     

提高电磁流量计测量准确度的方法

针对在注水中电磁流量计测量准确度普遍低于理论值的现状，试验小组根据电磁流量计原理与实际应用工况条件，查找影响电磁流量计测量准确度的主要因素，并制定对策措施进行反复比较实验和效果检查，最终通过5项有效措施的实施，完成电磁流量计测量准确度达到并超过理论值的目标。     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

Rationality of inflation–output forecasts of MMS survey: international evidence

We analyse the individual rationality of inflation and output forecasts from Money Market Survey (MMS) for a group of G7 countries and EU under asymmetric univariate Linlin and Linex loss functions. We also test for joint rationality of inflation–output forecasts using the forecast rationality test under multivariate asymmetric loss functions proposed by Ulu (2013). Our results indicate that rationality is often rejected under symmetric loss, and results improve towards rationality when asymmetric loss functions are assumed. The assumption of multivariate asymmetric loss compared to univariate asymmetric loss provides further evidence towards rationality. We also analyse directional forecast accuracy of the inflation and output forecasts and find that the inflation–output forecasts of MMS are valuable when considered both jointly and separately.     

定量分析中准确报告最终结果的方法

准确地出具检测数据对于各种实验室都是至关重要的。本文简要介绍了国际标准ISO5725-6:1994中对报告最终结果的统计处理方法。     

The problem of employees' network centrality and supervisors' error in performance appraisal: A multilevel theory

This article reveals an unexplored paradox for HR managers: the centrality of an employee in the social network benefits performance but hampers performance appraisal because it affects supervisors' rating errors. Central employees can be erroneously rated high on performance even when they are not high performers because supervisors tend to overappraise their performance. A distinction is made between rating precision, which depends on supervisors' uncertainty regarding employees' performance, and rating accuracy, which depends on supervisors' bias in favor of employees. Employee centrality is posited to be beneficial to precision but deleterious to accuracy because it regulates the diffusion of positive information, status, and power, all of which distort supervisors' capacity and motivation to accurately appraise performance. It is then argued that rating errors caused by network centrality affect aggregate perceptions of justice in organizations. When employees are highly connected to each other in a dense network, organizations have a strong and positive justice climate. Yet when some employees are more central than others in a centralized network, organizations have a negative and weak justice climate. The article contributes to the literature because it identifies an unexplored dark side of network centrality and offers recommendations for HR managers to cope with its deleterious consequences and for scholars to study them.     

土工试验中线性回归应用分析

土工试验数据处理通常是通过繁琐计算与作图来完成,且要求及时、准确。线性回归处理法通过一定的数理关系有效简化数据处理的计算与作图过程。通过大量的剪切、液塑限试验数据处理表明,其结果是准确的、值得信赖的,它通过线性回归简化繁琐计算,使作图也变得简单。本文主要针对土工试验中的线性回归应用进行分析,从大量的剪切、液塑限联合试验中论证其结果的准确性。     

Are analysts' cash flow forecasts useful?

This study provides evidence that the cost of equity capital decreases with the number of analysts who issue both cash flow and earnings forecasts (cash analysts). The evidence also shows that cash analysts reduce information asymmetry and predict long‐term earnings more accurately than analysts who issue only earnings forecasts. Taken together, these findings suggest that cash analysts provide market participants with high‐quality information and, as a result, firms benefit from cash analyst coverage in the form of a reduced cost of equity capital.     

关于机器人姿态偏差描述方法的讨论

本文针对国际标准草案 ISO/DP9283中用欧拉角的偏差描述机器人姿态偏差的规定,作者认为三个欧拉角的偏差没有独立的物理意义,不反映机器人姿态偏差的大小,这种描述方法十分不妥;主张以一次转动的转角描述机器人的姿态偏差。