行业因素对综合预警模型的判别效果的影响研究--以基于主成分分析的Logit模型为例

以2010～2012年期间我国沪深A股因财务困境陷入ST的公司和按照1∶2比例配比的正常公司作为研究对象,并根据行业特点对样本进行划分。同时,选取能够反映企业盈利能力、股东获利能力、现金流量能力、营运能力、发展能力、偿债能力的30个财务指标,在主成分分析的基础上构建各年度的Logit模型,对各行业的违约概率和判别准确度分别进行分析。结果表明,不同行业的违约概率和判别准确度均存在显著差异且存在共性特征。     

An alternative benchmark for the validity of China’s GDP growth statistics

The veracity of China’s official statistics on GDP growth rates is a matter of debate in both the popular media and academic literature. Given the level of institutional development, its size, complexity and fast pace of change as an emerging economy, there are good reasons to expect that producing reliable and consistent estimates for GDP is difficult. An alternative benchmark would therefore be useful. We propose a benchmark index for the nominal GDP growth constructed bottom-up from publically available and audited total Revenue numbers of 150 major Chinese listed companies covering 19 industry sectors. This benchmark index closely tracks the official statistics, but with some interesting deviations. Validation by using Gross Margin numbers for our Chinese sample and US data produced similar results. The methodology also allowed us to produce estimates of growth at the industry level, which highlights some important changes underway in the structure growth patterns of the Chinese economy.     

Investor Sentiment,Misstatements, and Auditor Behavior*

High investor sentiment has been linked with opportunistic managerial behavior in the face of more optimistic investors and analysts. We extend this line of work by documenting that the likelihood of misstatements is higher when sentiment is high. Although this would suggest elevated audit risk, we posit that a contemporaneous reduction in auditors' litigation cost could drive down audit fees and going concern opinion (GCO) reporting conservatism in order to please clientele. Consistent with this notion, we document that auditors charge lower fees and report GCOs less conservatively when sentiment is high. However, this reduction in reporting conservatism is unwarranted; results reveal that auditors are less likely to issue GCOs to clients which subsequently file for bankruptcy during high sentiment periods. We conduct additional tests to examine whether auditors' litigation costs indeed vary with sentiment and document that auditors are less likely to be sued and the market reacts less negatively to misstatement announcements when sentiment is high. Collectively, our findings suggest that, although misstatement risk is increasing with sentiment, auditors' litigation risk actually declines.     

Recall of autobiographical memory: A longitudinal analysis of franchisee experts

In this longitudinal study, we investigate whether franchisees in their role as experts exhibit consistent recall of their perceptions of franchise value after a 3-year interval when a strong autobiographical instance association (i.e., the multiunit decision) is created. Paired-sample t tests and correlation analysis are used to examine recall accuracy. While the analysis reveals stability of recall for typical franchisee experts over both the recent and the distant past, the individual level data indicate that the precision of recall deteriorates over time. Implications for future research involving retrospective data are offered.     

脉冲辐射源时差定位的新方法

脉冲辐射源定位系统主要用于对空基、地基和海基目标的时短信号辐射源进行检测和定位。现有的脉冲辐射源定位系统大都属于长基线系统。本文提出在有限空间环境下进行时差定位的新方法,并对系统的定位精度进行了仿真,提出了实现系统所需的关键技术。     

Uniformly most accurate equivariant prediction limit

Summary Prediction limits are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. The determination of prediction limits has been extensively investigated, but few optimal properties of these limits have been explored. This paper introduces a concept of uniform accuracy in order to compare equivariant prediction limits and show that the prediction limits used for the normal distribution and the exponential distribution are uniformly most accurate equivariant.     

The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts

We show that although forecasts of independent analysts are less accurate ex post, they yield forecast errors that are more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns. This suggests that forecasts of independent analysts are superior to those of nonindependent analysts in representing ex ante market expectations. We also show that forecasts of nonindependent analysts become more accurate and less biased, and produce forecast errors more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns when independent analysts are following the same firms than when they are not. This suggests that the presence of independent analysts disciplines the behavior of nonindependent analysts.     

Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve forecasts of manufacturing capacity utilization employing, as benchmarks, the forecasts from a univariate model which utilizes past information in capacity utilization, and from a bivariate model which utilizes past information in both capacity utilization and the federal funds rate. In addition to accurately predicting the directional change in capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve forecasts are “weakly” rational and generally superior to the bivariate forecasts. In light of another finding that monetary policy is non-neutral, we argue the Federal Reserve forecasts of capacity utilization have positively contributed to the Fed’s success in maintaining a low inflationary environment.

Group-Affiliated Analysts’ Strategic Forecasts During a Year: Evidence from Korea

In examining the family-controlled business groups in Korea, prior literature shows that group-affiliated analysts’ forecasts are optimistically biased. This article investigates whether the group-affiliated analysts strategically time the level of accuracy and bias in their forecasts for the same group-affiliated firms due to the change in information asymmetry in the market. The results show that the group-affiliated analysts issue more accurate and less optimistic earnings forecasts for the affiliated firms when the level of information asymmetry is low; particularly, in April, which is right after annual earnings announcements.     

低速载货车车架铆接工模夹具设计与改进

文章介绍了低速载货车铆接车架质量缺陷和工模夹具的关系,探讨了在现有生产条件下,为了适应多车型多部位铆接的需要,以及避免出现铆接质量缺陷,结合生产实际对铆接模具、工具、夹具进行设计和改进,实践证明使用效果较好。同时,对铆接车架工模夹具的设计和改进必须联系生产实际情况这个思维方向进行了有益的探索。