世界旅游发展：2008年回顾和2009年展望

2008年全球经济衰退严重冲击世界旅游发展,不仅影响到全球国际入境旅游增长率大幅度下滑,而且使世界旅游经济主要指标也不同程度下降。随着全球经济进一步衰退,世界经济增长率继续下滑及各种经济因素的影响,使2009年世界旅游经济的增长与发展将继续面临严峻的挑战。     

河北省国民经济主要指标关系分析及“十二五”预测

"十二五"时期是河北省经济社会转型的重要时期,通过对"十二五"时期国内外经济形势变化及GDP相关影响因素分析可知,"十二五"时期河北省将处于工业化加速发展阶段,传统的投资拉动型经济增长模式将有所改观,未来消费和投资拉动GDP增长的差距将逐年缩小,河北省的GDP增长率的峰值将在2013年左右出现。但这一时期资源与环境的矛盾更为突出,节能减排压力加大。因此,要保持"十五"时期和"十一五"前四年的GDP的高增长率是比较困难的。     

企业战略差异度会影响分析师盈余预测吗？

随着我国资本市场的发展,证券分析师的作用日益凸显,关于分析师盈余预测的研究一直是各界关注的重点。采用我国沪深两市A股上市公司2011—2015年分析师盈余预测数据,检验了企业战略差异度对分析师盈余预测精度和分析师跟踪偏好的影响。实证结果表明：（1）企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测准确度越低;（2）企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测分歧度越大;（3）企业战略差异度越大,分析师跟踪人数越少。进一步研究还发现：国有产权会削弱战略差异度对分析师盈余预测准确度和跟踪人数的不利影响。     

Voluntary Causal Disclosures: Tendencies and Capital Market Reaction

In this study, we provide empirical evidence on whether voluntarily disclosed causal attributions made in management earnings forecasts are credible by investigating the conditions under which such attributions are made and the extent to which security price responses are associated with attribution existence. We find that causal attributions are more likely to be made when forecast news is bad (relative to good), and that the type of attribution made is more likely to be external (internal) for bad (good) forecast news. Incorporating the existence and type of attribution into models that explain announcement period three-day cumulative abnormal returns yields significant effects for attribution incidence and type after controlling for unexpected earnings and forecast type (e.g., point, range, etc.). Consistent with the idea that attributions enhance the credibility or precision of management forecasts, attribution disclosure enhances price reactions per dollar of unexpected earnings conveyed in a management forecast.     

Management by the Numbers: A Formal Approach to Deriving Informational and Distributional Properties of “Unmanaged” Earnings

We explore the theoretical relation between earnings and market returns as well as the properties of earnings frequency distributions under the assumption that managers use unbiased accounting information to sequentially decide on real options their firms have and report generated earnings truthfully, with the market pricing the firm based on those reported earnings. We generate benchmarks against which empirically observed earnings‐returns relations and aggregate earnings distributions can be evaluated. This parsimonious model shows a coherent set of results: reported losses are less persistent than reported gains, decision making diminishes the S‐shaped market response to earnings and earnings relate to returns asymmetrically in the way documented by Basu [1997]. Furthermore, the implied frequency distribution of aggregate earnings is neither symmetric nor necessarily single‐peaked. Instead, it may exhibit a kink at zero and look similar to the plots reported by Burgstahler and Dichev [1997]. However, within our model, none of these phenomena are due to reporting noise, bias, or some undesirable strategic managerial behavior. They are the natural consequences of using past earnings as the basis for value increasing managerial decision making that in turn generates the future earnings on which future decisions will be based.     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

基于行业发展与政府规制双重约束的新疆旅游业用水需求预测

首先基于旅游业行业发展和水资源管理政府规制的双重约束,设计9种情景;然后从旅游全要素视角,建立由餐饮、住宿、能源、生态、购物等5类水足迹账户组成的旅游业用水需求量预测模型;将旅游业从业人员纳入账户,提出不同情景下旅游业5类水足迹账户的预测方法;最后对2025年不同情景下新疆旅游业用水量进行了预测。研究结果表明:2025年,相较于政府规制力度和行业发展速度,新疆旅游业用水需求量对后者更为敏感;9种情景中,中/强是最适宜的发展情景,即控制游客规模以9%的速度发展,旅游业年度新增就业人员4万人,政府控制万元工业增加值用水量年均节水率7%,控制居民生活用能源增速为5.52%。     

Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

Forecasting real estate prices in Germany: the role of consumer confidence

The aim of the paper is to analyse the forecasting ability of various potential predictors for real estate prices in Germany over the short term. In the wake of the financial crisis, real estate prices in Germany started to increase markedly and still did so by the end of 2013. Despite a number of fundamental reasons, e.g. favourable lending conditions and Germany’s rapid return to economic growth, this provoked a discussion on whether consumers have too gloomy expectations regarding real estate prices in future. To capture the role of expectations for predicting real estate prices, in our forecast evaluation, we put special emphasis on various components of consumer confidence. Using single indicator models, we find that households’ perceived financial situations as well as their intended consumption/saving plans serve as valuable real estate price predictors.