基于公司治理变量的财务困境预测研究

传统的财务困境预测大都基于财务指标。文章在理论分析的基础上,以96家ST上市公司和286家非ST上市公司为研究对象,强调利用公司治理变量构建财务困境预测模型。研究结果表明：公司治理变量不但对公司陷入财务困境具有显著影响,而且具有较好的预测能力。这一方面说明公司治理对公司的财务安全具有重要影响,另一方面也说明今后在研究和构建财务困境预测模型时,不仅要考虑财务信息,还要考虑公司治理信息,这样才能构建出更为有效的预测模型。     

Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions

The departure from the traditional concern with the central tendency is in line with the increasing recognition that an assessment of the degree of uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is indispensable ( Clements 2004 ). We propose an econometric model to estimate the conditional density without relying on assumptions about the parametric form of the conditional distribution of the target variable. The methodology is applied to the U.S. unemployment rate and the survey of professional forecasts. Specification tests based on Koenker and Xiao (2002) and Gaglianone et al. (2011) indicate that our approach correctly approximates the true conditional density.     

基于ARMA组合模型的我国人口增长预测分析

众所周知,我国是人口大国,人口数量问题和人口结构问题严重阻碍了我国社会、经济、资源、环境等方面的可持续发展。在新中国成立以来人口增长趋势以及两次人口波动情况后,从虚拟变量的角度,考察了计划生育政策的实行对我国人口的影响,结果表明计划生育政策大大减缓了我国的人口增长速度,对控制人口形势发挥了显著作用。在此基础上,运用组合模型,一方面克服了自相关性,更重要的是,利用组合模型在预测方面的优势,对未来五年我国人口进行预测,结果表明,在2014年,我国人口将突破14亿,2015年,我国人口总量将达到14.2684亿。     

基于会计和治理信息的财务困境预测模型研究

本文以2005年上半年沪深两市中首次被ST的52家公司和52家非ST公司为研究对象，同时利用这些上市公司的会计信息和公司治理信息来构建财务困境预测模型。研究结果表明：（1）公司治理特征对公司陷入财务困境具有显著影响；（2）公司治理信息不能为财务信息所覆盖。一方面，说明公司治理结构对公司的财务安全具有重要影响，另一方面也说明今后在研究和构建财务困境预测模型时，不仅要考虑会计信息，还应考虑公司治理信息等，以构建出更为有效的预测模型。     

中国能源需求预测及供给对策

随着中国工业化和现代化进程的加快,能源需求越来越大。同时能源利用效率不高、污染严重等问题也暴露出来了。本世纪初二十年中国能源消耗的总量将迟到什么水平,其品种结构又将如何,这是规划能源建设的前提依据。本文通过弹性预测法、回归预测法、间接预测法三种方法预测上述指标。同时简单介绍中国能源供给现状及趋势,提出一些相应的时策。     

基于RBF网络的商业银行信用风险控制研究

对信用风险的有效控制与管理,在现代商业银行日常运行过程中具有举足轻重的地位。基于信用风险系统是一个高度复杂的非线性动态系统,利用神经网络的自适应学习、并行分布处理和较强的鲁棒性及容错性等特性,建立基于RBF神经网络的信用风险预测控制模型,从理论上探寻信用风险非线性智能控制。仿真试验表明,信用风险度能被控制在以最佳风险度为中心的一定范围内。因此,该预测控制系统适合于商业银行信用风险的控制。     

Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: Optimizing the Performance of the Mixed Logit Model

In recent studies, Jones and Hensher (2004 , 2005) provide an illustration of the usefulness of advanced probability modelling in the prediction of corporate bankruptcies, insolvencies and takeovers. Mixed logit (or random parameter logit) is the most general of these models and appears to have the greatest promise in terms of underlying behavioural realism, desirable econometric properties and overall predictive performance. It suggests a number of empirical considerations relevant to harnessing the maximum potential from this new model (as well as avoiding some of the more obvious pitfalls associated with its use). Using a three-state failure model, the unconditional triangular distribution for random parameters offers the best population-level predictive performance on a hold-out sample. Further, the optimal performance for a mixed logit model arises when a weighted exogenous sample maximum likelihood (WESML) technique is applied in model estimation. Finally, we suggest an approach for testing the stability of mixed logit models by re-estimating a selected model using varying numbers of Halton intelligent draws. Our results have broad application to users seeking to apply more accurate and reliable forecasting methodologies to explain and predict sources of firm financial distress better.     

Forecast accuracy in initial public offerings and the impact of external constraints relative to managerial choice: a research note

We examine the accuracy of earnings forecasts published in prospectuses, under conditions where external influences of state regulation and economic condition act as constraints to mitigate management optimism. Our results indicate that regulation has no significant impact, but economic condition and management optimism are significantly associated with forecast accuracy. We conclude that a study of forecast accuracy over time must take into account external influences and that attempting to use regulation to improve forecast accuracy is not an effective strategy when there are strongly adverse economic conditions and when promoters or managers are optimistic in forecasting.     

论商科院校新世纪的《市场调研与预测》的教学与改革

结合现代市场调研及市场预测实践要求,从教学内容、方法及手段入手,就商科院校新世纪的《市场调研与预测》的教学改革问题进行了探讨。     

滚齿加工误差分析与检验组(之五) Ⅴ.公差组及检验项目

本文是“滚齿加工误差分析与检验组”一文的第五部分。这部分的主要内容是论述齿轮新标准中的公差组与检验项目之间的关系:第Ⅰ公差组与几何偏心及运动偏心之间的关系。