SHFE与LME期铜价格因果关系分析

本文以沪铜与伦铜主力合约3月合约为代表,利用协整方法及因果关系分析对历史数据进行了实证。结果表明:作为全球最大的金属期货交易所,长期以来伦敦金属所金属铜的期货价格对上海期货交易所的期铜价格都具有主导作用。这两年SHFE金属铜的期货价格对国际市场铜价的影响力在逐步增强。     

“总结历史是为了开辟未来”:邓小平的思想和实践

“总结历史是为了开辟未来,”这是邓小平认识与对待历史的独特视角与着眼点。文章在分析邓小平“总结历史是为了开辟未来”的历史研究观的基础上,揭示与论述了邓小平从历史的总结与对比出发考察当代问题、治国治政的现代决策实践。     

新农村建设中的金融制度变革

目前我国的金融体系存在许多缺陷,形成了一个相对低效的农村金融制度安排,使得农村金融对农村经济的促进作用并不明显。农村金融改革的实质,是要建立一个有效配置金融资源的农村金融市场,创造一个政策性金融、商业性金融、合作性金融、民间金融共存共生、协调发展的局面。     

Leadership in the 21st Century: Understanding Global Terrorism

What should organization leaders (in both business and government, in all countries of the world) know about terrorism? They should know that terrorism has a deep history with instances of terrorist-type activities being recorded in the Bible, presently involving many of the world's countries with all continents but Antarctica recording one or more terrorist attacks in the last year, and has many facets to examine. Those parts include knowing about the perpetrators and their goals, the targets, the weapons, the events, and the effects of those events. Leaders should understandthe background of global terrorism and also how to respond to the negative effects of terrorist events. Presently, the United States is considered the top target in the World and is likely to be for the foreseeable future. Al Qaeda is probably the top Foreign Terrorist Organization aiming at the U.S. with intentions of using more lethal weapons and producing severe damage. The future will probably see a significant reduction in ideological terrorism and increases in single-issue terrorist groups attacking major cities with weapons of mass destruction. Further progress in understanding terrorism and its effects on business should come more from quality academic research in business (rather than from conjecture and opinions as at present) and from further quality academic research in other fields such as history, political science, and psychology.     

经济全球化与社会主义展望

经济全球化的实质是资本的全球化．在经济运行和发展上,资本与资本主义之间没有一种内在关联,资本并不意味着资本主义,资本全球化与社会主义有着共生共存的基础和可能。对社会主义前景的展望有两种预想：全球化和本土化。所谓全球化是指社会主义应该或者将会在全球范围取得胜利,成为主流的意识形态和社会制度。所谓本土化是指社会主义将与国家或民族的实际相结合,成为本土性或民族性的意识形态和社会制度。     

基于分形理论的原油期货高频交易风险测度研究

为了捕捉原油期货高频波动规律,采用WTI原油期货五分钟数据,基于分形理论分别构建GED分布和Skew-t分布的FIGARCH、FIAPARCH和HYGARCH模型,分析其波动特征并对风险进行测度。结果显示：三种模型均较好地刻画出WTI原油期货波动的长记忆特征;基于Skew-t分布的HYGARCH模型在度量原油期货高频交易风险时尤为精确;多头与空头头寸的VaR呈现非对称性;套期保值者或高频交易者可依据模型预测波动率,防止短期波动率过大导致保证金不足而被强制平仓。高频交易在提高市场流动性和拓宽市场深度方面具有一定的作用,因此,在风险可控的条件下,政府应该鼓励高频交易,促进我国衍生品市场繁荣发展,并增强衍生品市场稳定性和国际竞争力。     

物理学对金融学的影响

金融界以几何布朗运动来描述股价、油价、汇率等金融上重要变量的时间序列,并因此与许多物理学上的模型与定律存在显著的联系.理工学科人才能在金融领域拥有明显的竞争优势.     

资产现值计价反思──基于马克思政治经济学的一种分析

资产现值计价是资产“未来经济利益观”的产物。计算现值实际上是从终值中扣除利润、计算本金的过程。资产用现值计价的基本思路,就是将资产所带来的未来现金流入量作为收入,从中扣除贴现率代表的利润水平,以投入价值(本金)作为资产的价值。现值计价的理想状况是贴现率等于资产的内含报酬率,此种情况下现值计价就是成本(投入价值)计价,由于未来现金流入量和内含报酬率是不确定的,资产现值计价不具备可操作性。     

Sustainable mobility transitions and the challenge of countervailing trends: the case of personal aeromobility

Research on sustainable mobility transitions has focused on battery-electric vehicles, urban ‘smart’ cars, fuel-cell powered transport modes and power-assisted bicycles. While these studies have usefully exposed some of the dynamics governing sociotechnical change, developments outside the purview of sustainability have been largely ignored. A critical area of neglect concerns the growing popularity of personal aeromobility. Passenger dissatisfaction with commercial airlines, public concerns about terrorism, increasing affluence and creative marketing have expanded interest in private aviation. In parts of the USA, customised air travel is becoming a straightforward and affordable transport alternative. This article describes the mounting popularity of four segments of this trend: business/personal airplane acquisition, fractional aircraft ownership, flight-time cards and air taxis. It also highlights the role that the federal government is currently playing to overcome the technological obstacles to more pervasive personal aeromobility. A concluding section considers the ramifications of these activities on contemporary efforts to foster sustainable mobility and to conceptualise viable transition pathways.     

论国内市场寻找最佳避险比率的过程

国内即将推出指数期货，投资者可以利用期货来规避现货投资的风险，但如何寻找最佳的避险比率呢？本文通过欧美日港台等市场的比较研究，认为国内可能需要采用二阶段估计法寻找最佳的避险比率，而且，对于国内股票市场来说，β值在某些时候出现较大的跳动，因此，应该采用相关修正模型调整历史β值。本文的结论为即将推出指数期货的国内市场提供了重要的实践指导建议。