欧盟碳期货风险量化——基于GED-GARCH模型和VaR模型

以欧盟碳期货合约为研究对象,针对其反映的市场风险特点,采用GED-GARCH模型进行参数估计。结果显示:到期日的因素使得欧盟碳期货合约收益率序列的条件方差与历史信息之间存在联系;碳期货合约的到期日越久,其条件方差越依赖于历史信息,表明欧盟碳期货市场为弱式有效市场;欧盟碳期货合约收益率序列的波动会逐渐衰减,表明最终合约价格能够起到价格预示作用。再利用GARCH模型的参数估计结果,计算出不同置信水平下收益率序列的在险值,夯实实证研究结果。针对欧盟碳期货合约风险的量化研究表明,欧盟碳期货与碳现货的关系呈现出新兴市场的分割局面特征,进一步导致欧盟碳金融市场逐渐走向虚拟化。因此,在中国碳市场的建设中,应做到碳期货与碳现货交易相协调,做好碳金融市场上风险的量化和控制。     

An emerging tourism planning paradigm? A comparative analysis between town and tourism planning

This article examines the roots and the evolution of tourism and town planning theory and practice. It discusses how both fields have interacted with each other, and provides some clues about the way in which tourism and town planning theory and practice are likely to evolve in the future. It is argued that tourism planning theory is still looking for its own identity and ways of evolving in the future. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国石油战略储备体系建设的若干思考

石油战略储备是关系到我国国家安全的重大问题。一方面,要建立和完善实物储备或现货储备,即讨论和呼声较高的石油战略储备,进一步完善相关制度设计;另一方面,还应抓紧建设战略储备体系的短板——石油期货储备。通过建立石油期货市场,加快推进石油期货交易,把金融安全与石油安全合并考虑,把石油现货储备、期货储备与外汇储备密切结合起来,建立外汇储备与石油储备的转换机制,使我国规模庞大的外汇储备服从、服务于国家的经济安全,提高国家的石油保障能力,从根本上保障我国的石油安全。     

近代上海标金市场金银比价的实证分析及对当代的启示

近代上海标金市场是国际金融市场的重要组成部分,也是上海成为国际金融中心的标志。本文通过实证分析得出,近代上海不仅拥有门类齐全的货币市场和资本市场,重要的是拥有当时世界上最发达、最先进的金融期货市场,这对于当代上海重建国际金融中心具有一定的启发意义。     

情感型领导对员工工匠精神的跨层影响——基本心理需求满足和未来工作自我清晰度的作用

工匠精神作为企业实现提质增效、构建竞争优势等目标的关键推手,如何有效培育组织成员工匠精神成为学界和业界共同探讨的话题。基于自我决定理论,构建了一个包括情感型领导、基本心理需求满足、未来工作自我清晰度和员工工匠精神的跨层次有调节的中介作用模型。通过双时点方式收集数据并进行实证分析,结果表明：情感型领导对员工工匠精神培育具有积极影响;情感型领导通过基本心理需求满足间接影响员工工匠精神;未来工作自我清晰度不仅正向调节情感型领导、基本心理需求满足与员工工匠精神间关系,而且正向调节基本心理需求满足的中介作用。本文厘清了情感型领导与员工工匠精神间的内在机理,也为组织有效培育员工工匠精神提供了指导。     

韩国航天科技发展动因、现状与未来走向

运用层次分析法从国际、地区、国家3方面分析韩国加速航天科技发展的原因。根据相关机构数据,分析当前韩国航天科技的发展现状,认为韩国已建成相对完备的航天设施,具有自主研发、本土发射的基本条件。但与先发展起来的航天大国相比,其航天科技还有一定差距。研究认为韩国将继续加速推进航天事业发展,开发多样化、实用型的航天项目,加强自主研发的同时重视国际合作,积极发挥民营企业作用,推动战略性航天产业发展。     

Young adults’ consideration of their food choices a propos consequences for their future health

Many researchers have devoted much time and effort to explain the undesirable health outcomes associated with an excessive intake of certain types of fast foods. Particularly vulnerable, are young adults who move out of their parents' homes to live on their own, and then begin to rely on the multitude of so‐called “food away from home” options which are convenient, available and even desirable in their social circles. This study investigated young adults' consideration of the consequences of their consumption of food eaten away from home due to concern about unacceptable habitual behaviour that might negatively affect their future households. The survey involved 395 young adults up to 25 years of age who completed a structured questionnaire which relied on an established Consideration of Future Consequences scale. Data analysis involved exploratory factor analysis, t‐tests and Anova. Findings revealed some concern about the immediate consequences of respondents' fast food consumption, but concern about the future consequences seemed rather distant in their minds. Although significant differences were confirmed within gender and among population groups with regard to immediate concern about their fast food consumption, the means were nevertheless low throughout indicating that much needs to be done to sensitize young people about every day food consumption that might have dire consequences for their future health.     

我国知识产权证券化的法律障碍与对策

知识产权证券化对知识产权成果的转化与知识经济的发展具有重要的现实意义,世界知识产权组织更是将知识产权证券化形容为一个新的发展趋势。知识产权证券化在我国尚处于探索阶段,文章对知识产权证券化的法律障碍进行了分析,并提出了相应的解决对策。     

石家庄市城镇污水处理技术现状与展望

在对石家庄市城镇污水处理厂进行全面的调查基础上,概述了城镇污水处理厂的建设和新技术应用现状,针对目前存在的一些问题提出改进意见,并对今后城镇污水处理厂的发展进行了展望。     

金融期货市场风险管理研究

风险并不等于危险。金融期货市场充满了风险,但金融期货市场又可以是安全的。关键在于我们能否将风险控制住、管理好。风险性与安全性的统一,是现代规范化金融期货市场的特性,同时也是金融期货市场发挥其特有功能的基础和保障。