Decision-making in incomplete markets with ambiguity—a case study of a gas field acquisition

We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian Motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by time-varying volatility and fat tails; therefore, we use Gaussian generalized autoregressive score (GAS) and GARCH models, extending them to Student’s t-GARCH and t-GAS. Second, an important risk (reservoir size) is not hedgeable. As a result, markets are incomplete which makes preference free pricing impossible and thus standard option pricing methodology inapplicable. Therefore, we parametrize the investor’s risk preference and use utility indifference pricing techniques. We use Least Squares Monte Carlo simulations as a dimension reduction technique in solving the resulting stochastic dynamic programming problems. Moreover, an investor often only has an approximate idea of the true probabilistic model underlying variables, making model ambiguity a relevant problem. We show empirically how model ambiguity affects project values, and importantly, how option values change as model ambiguity gets resolved in later phases of the projects. We show that traditional valuation approaches will consistently underestimate the value of project flexibility and in general lead to overly conservative investment decisions in the presence of time-dependent stochastic structures.     

Understanding the factors affecting the adoption of the Internet of Things

The Internet of Things (IoTs) is widely considered as one of the most important infrastructures for promoting economic development and technological innovation. The purpose of this study is to find the key factors influencing IoT adoptions, specifically in Taiwan’s logistics industry. In this study adopts a model which is a hybrid of technology, organisation and environment (TOE) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method (DEMATEL) to evaluate the complex factors influencing the adoption of IoT. The study employs the TOE framework as a basis to develop a general evaluation framework, and the DEMATEL technique conceptualises a structural model and then identifies the causal relationships among factors through a cause-effect relationship diagram. Finally, we also divided the complex influencing factors into cause and effect groups to better clarify the causal relationships for decision-making, to ensure the efficiency of IoT adoption.     

Good governance,innovation, economic growth and the stock market turnover rate

This study is primarily aimed at testing the theory of good governance in the group of eight developing Islamic countries. Using a panel data regression model, we examined the data to determine the relationship between political economy and economic development of eight countries, for the period 2005 to 2014. The results show a significant positive correlation between the rule of law, corruption control with economic growth and stock market turnover rate proxy. The examination through an artificial neural network resulted in a higher determination coefficient and less average standard error. This, in turn, reveals that the fitting power and efficiency of this method is higher than the panel data regression model. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the application of good governance theory calls for more inquiry.     

An extended peer communities’ knowledge sharing approach for environmental governance

This paper is devoted to propose an approach to implement the idea of extended peer knowledge to environmental governance by means of engaging the «extended peer communities». Socially robust knowledge relies on transparency and citizen participation. These two underlying elements take the form of both assessment and post-assessment decision support systems. Initially, during the assessment process citizens and stakeholders are engaged in the framing, proposal of alternatives, and evaluation criteria. Then the analysts assessed the alternatives proposed by means of DSS. Then, in a second stage, the analysts inspired in the idea of transparency, gave back the assessment result to the «extended peer community» who were able to give their opinion regarding the results and suggest potential parametric changes that were used for sensitivity analyses. The authors explore the proposed extended peer communities’ knowledge sharing for environmental governance assessment using a case study applied to a sustainable mobility planning process carried out in Tenerife (Canary Islands). The results gathered highlight that this approach is of use for guaranteeing the robustness of complex environmental decisions under high levels of uncertainty.     

腾讯群在设计软件课教学中的应用——以《Rhino》课为例

腾讯群在大学生群体中的使用十分广泛,如何以此为依托拓展其在教学中的应用具有较高的现实意义.在总结了设计软件课教学特点的基础上,指出腾讯群各功能模块在设计软件课的教学中具有较高的应用价值,在课前预习、资源共享、作业布置、课后交流、作业提交以及作业评定环节均能深度契合,并以《RHINO》软件课的教学为例,具体阐述了腾讯群各功能在该软件教学流程中的应用.     

防恶意干扰的VANET双群联合定位算法

传统的无线定位方法直接应用于车辆自组织网络(VANET)时，会被窃听方利用定位信息，从而导致严重的安全隐患。为此，提出基于Bancroft方法的双群组合定位算法,用于保障车辆自组织网络中车辆定位的安全性和准确性。算法利用两个群组的智能车辆节点分别进行定位，利用两组解分别反求伪距值，如果所获得的伪距值与经过节点钟差修正后的原始伪距值基本一致，则认为这一组解为最终的定位结果，从而保证了定位的正确性。同时，双群定位的信息分散性保证了系统整体的安全性。理论分析及算法仿真表明,双群联合定位算法可使窃听方的误码率稳定在较高水平。     

The role of travel agents’ ethical concerns when brokering information in the marketing and sale of sustainable tourism

ABSTRACT

Using conservation tourism as a test case, this study explores the role high-end travel agents play in selling sustainable tourism. It examines a niche marketing activity in that process. The study focuses on agents’ consideration of ethics as they act as information brokers between tourists and operators. Data were collected from interviews with agents and analysed using a deductive content analysis based on six overarching concepts and theories on ethical decision-making. The findings emphasize the implicit influence within conservation tourism of tourism's ethical dimensions, whilst identifying many constraints that prevent a full consideration and/or disclosure of ethical concerns in the sales process. Most importantly, agents made assumptions using a false consensus bias about clients' preferences for service over concerns for the environment, and were not prepared to discuss the more sensitive issues surrounding conservation with their clients. A number of recommendations are proposed regarding the need to unpack conservation information, overcome the false consensus bias, and agents’ reluctance to discuss ethics in the sales process. Finally, the findings have broader implications for the development of sustainable tourism, which ultimately will depend on a dialogue of ethical concerns and values within the tourism supply chain between suppliers, brokers and tourists.     

Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?

We investigate the relationship between a country's domestic financial development and the (composition of its) net foreign asset position using a pooled mean group estimator and data for 50 countries for the 1970–2007 period. The results show that financial development reduces a country's long-run net foreign asset position. In addition, financial development leads to higher net equity and lower net debt positions. These findings confirm the theoretical predictions of Mendoza et al. (2009). The results are robust to using different indicators of financial development and inclusion of the level of development of a country in the cointegrating relationship.     

Me,myself and I: The role of CEO narcissism in internationalization decisions

Internationalization decisions represent major objects of international business research; in this context, the respective role of decision-makers, i.e., strategic actors has been under study for now nearly 50 years. However, some important individual characteristics of strategic actors, which seem to influence individual decision-making in a significant way, have been – in contrast to general management research – widely disregarded. Among those characteristics, narcissism plays a decisive role. Trying to provide a first attempt to fill this research gap our paper aims at theorizing on as well as empirically analyzing potential relationships between narcissistic tendencies of CEOs and their internationalization decisions. The empirical study of major German manufacturing firms over the period 2004–2013 shows that CEOs with a high degree of narcissism tend to intensify business activities abroad in general while the expected effect on intensified activities in markets with a high psychic distance cannot be identified. These research results help to better understand the drivers of firms’ internationalization, stress the importance of recognizing managerial decision-making in the context of analyzing business activities abroad, and improve the prediction of CEOs’ decision-making behavior in general.     

Inked: historic African-American beach site as collective memory and group ‘Third Place’ sociability on Martha’s Vineyard

Using data gained from ethnographic research and interviews, this article examines ‘third place’ sociability in the social interactions of the Polar Bears of Martha’s Vineyard, a group of predominantly but not exclusively middle-aged and senior African-American men and women who swim, exercise and socialise together each morning at ‘the Inkwell’ beach. Using Georg Simmel’s concept of sociability and Ray Oldenburg’s third-place theoretical framework, this study explores the key role of the Monday communal breakfast and the function of conversation in establishing bonds between individuals. It further investigates the promotion of strong feelings of social connectedness, belonging, social support, social capital gains and community among its group members. The ongoing sociability and informal rules of the Polar Bears of Martha’s Vineyard has enabled it to become a model group demonstration of third-place community building. The importance of race, class and place is socio-historically investigated within the broader social context of the popular racialised section of the beach, ‘the Inkwell’, of African-American community life, and within the sub-community milieu of group social interaction.