Rationality of weather predictions and insurance purchases: testing the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies

Deviations from the rational behaviour assumed in many economic models have been found in a variety of settings. Two such deviations, the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies have been found in lab settings, as well as in consequential real-world decisions. Previous economic experiments have shown that the behaviour of professionals can differ from that of the general population. In this paper, we use data from two experiments conducted with a particular group of professionals who make yearly high-stakes decisions in the face of uncertain weather and market conditions: agricultural producers. In the experiments, participants were asked to make predictions about the coming year’s weather and market conditions and make decisions in a familiar decision context. Results indicate evidence of the gambler’s fallacy, such that participants were less likely to predict a good outcome if the previous outcome(s) were good. We also observe that participants were more likely to gamble if a previous gamble was successful, but find no impact on two successful gambles. These combined results indicate that even professionals with many years of experience can exhibit behaviours that deviate from those assumed by classical models.     

Competition and Public Policy in the Nursing Home Industry

A theory of property needs to give an account of the whole lifecycle of a property right: How it is initiated, transferred, and terminated. Economics has focused on the transfers in the market and almost completely neglected the question of initiation and termination of property in normal production and consumption (not in some original state or in the transition from common to private property). The institutional mechanism for the normal initiation and termination of property is an invisible hand function of the market — the market mechanism of appropriation. Does this mechanism satisfy an appropriate normative principle? The standard normative juridical principle is to assign or impute legal responsibility according to de facto responsibility. It is given a historical tag of being "Lockean," but the basis is contemporary jurisprudence, not historical exegesis. Then, the fundamental theorem of the property mechanism is proven, which shows that if "Hume's conditions" (no transfers without consent and all contracts fulfilled) are satisfied, then the market automatically satisfies the Lockean responsibility principle — i.e., "Hume implies Locke." As a major application, the results in their contrapositive form, "Not Locke implies Not Hume," are applied to a market economy based on the employment contract. I show that the production based on the employment contract violates the Lockean principle (all who work in an employment enterprise are de facto responsible for the positive and negative results), and thus Hume's conditions must also be violated in the marketplace (de facto responsible human action cannot be transferred from one person to another — as is readily recognized when an employer and employee together commit a crime).¹     

Injuries,inequalities and health in Europe

Injuries account for a significant burden of mortality, morbidity, disability and health care costs. They differentially affect age and sex groups and reveal massive inequalities in occurrence within and between countries in Europe. Within countries, the poor suffer most and have least ability to change their exposures to risk. Addressing inequalities in injury occurrence would play a valuable role in reducing the differential burden of ill-health between rich and poor. Despite the evidence for many effective injury-related interventions, limited attention has been devoted to addressing injuries as a public health priority. This paper questions why attention has been limited to date and suggests policy action to support injuries being addressed as a mainstream concern by national and international health policy-makers. The paper briefly highlights the public health burden of injuries and violence; illustrates the range of inequalities that characterise their occurrence; highlights the scope for public health action and considers the extent to which policies that reduce the overall burden of injuries may also reduce inequalities in their occurrence; and finally examines why there has been a limited policy response to date and suggests ways of advancing the agenda.     

明代盐商“困守支”的政治经济学解释

政府是影响经济的重要制度形式."掠夺之手"模型为分析现代政府行为提供了有用的研究视角.以"掠夺之手"模型的视角来分析明代统治者行为对盐商利益以及开中法实施效果产生的一系列影响,从而得出明代开中法崩溃、盐商"困守支"的根本原因在于缺乏制约统治者掠夺之手的制度安排的结论.     

"一把手"监督难的原因和对策

"一把手"监督难的原因是:上级组织重使用、轻管理;同级和下级不愿监督或不敢监督;一般群众无法监督.有效监督"一把手"的措施是:健全监督机制;加强学习;完善监督制度;落实监督措施.     

机动车坡道驻车制动效能检验的现状与探新

文章通过对机动车驻车效能检验的现状分析,指出了目前以检测线台式制动方式检验结果代替车辆在实际坡道驻车制动效能的检验方式所带来的一些问题,提出了通过研发机动车坡道驻车制动模拟平台,探索精确、安全、便捷、经济的机动车驻车检验方式。     

山西省推手竞赛开展现状及对策分析

推手竞赛是一种新型对抗性竞赛项目,具有一定的趣味性和观赏性。本文以山西省为例,系统地分析和研究了推手竞赛的开展现状,并提出了合理化发展对策。     

常见印章制作的方法及伪造印章的检验鉴定

随着科学技术的飞速发展,印章制作自动化程度的不断提高及计算机排版系统的广泛应用,新的制章方法和伪造方法也不断涌现,高仿真印章印文越来越多地出现在有关案件中。本文主要是介绍常见的印章制作方法以及如何对不同印章的进行检验鉴定,在辨别真伪印章印文上做了进一步的总结和研究。     

人工挖孔灌注桩在某高速公路工程的应用实践

结合工程实践,从人工挖孔灌注桩的特点,分析人工挖孔灌注桩的适用条件,阐述人工挖孔灌注桩施工工艺、质量安全控制要点、常见问题的预防与处理等。