Do Psychological Fallacies Influence Trading in Financial Markets? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market

Research in both economics and psychology suggests that when agents predict the next value of a random series they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The GF is to expect a negative correlation in a process that is in fact random. The HHF is more or less the opposite of this—to believe that another heads is more likely after a run of heads. The evidence for these fallacies comes largely from situations where they are not punished (lotteries, casinos, and laboratory experiments with random returns). In many real-world situations, such as in financial markets, succumbing to fallacies is costly, which gives an incentive to overcome them. The present study is based on high-frequency data from a market maker in the foreign exchange market. Trading behavior is only partly explained by the rational exploitation of past patterns in the data. There is also evidence of the GF: a tendency to sell the dollar after it has risen persistently or strongly.     

"一把手"监督难的原因和对策

"一把手"监督难的原因是:上级组织重使用、轻管理;同级和下级不愿监督或不敢监督;一般群众无法监督.有效监督"一把手"的措施是:健全监督机制;加强学习;完善监督制度;落实监督措施.     

机动车坡道驻车制动效能检验的现状与探新

文章通过对机动车驻车效能检验的现状分析,指出了目前以检测线台式制动方式检验结果代替车辆在实际坡道驻车制动效能的检验方式所带来的一些问题,提出了通过研发机动车坡道驻车制动模拟平台,探索精确、安全、便捷、经济的机动车驻车检验方式。     

亚当·斯密的思想框架及启迪

善和恶是人性中的两个基本维度。基于人性恶会导致利己行为,并会为一己之利而损害他人,因此,我们需要通过法律制度来维护正义。基于人性善会产生利他行为,使得人与人之间友爱和睦,因此,我们崇尚人类的美德品质。本文从人性出发,完整地解读了斯密思想的法律观、道德观和经济观,揭示了斯密心中完美的理想社会和人类自然秩序,阐述了斯密思想对现实社会发展的启迪和意义。文章最后揭示了为保障实现理想社会的三条自然法则:正义的法律作为人的一切行为的外在规范;公正的旁观者作为人的一切行为的内心监督;在平等和自由条件下追求自我利益。     

Grabbing hand or financial constraint mitigation effect? A reexamination of the relationship between institutional development and cash holdings

This study reexamines the impact of institutional development on corporate cash holdings. Our findings confirm that institutional development has a negative effect on corporate cash holdings, which may be partially explained by the financial constraint mitigation effect of institutional development. Our empirical evidence also shows that the corruption index, used as a proxy for the grabbing hand effect, does not mediate the negative effect of institutional development on corporate cash holdings. Furthermore, the impact of institutional development on corporate cash holdings is not significant for large firms and state-owned enterprises. These results are robust to different measures of cash holdings.     

The Natural Roots of Capitalism and Its Virtues and Values

When we think of theories that attempt to root capitalism in nature, the one that comes most readily to mind is Social Darwinism. In this theory, nature – driven by Darwinian natural selection (the struggle for existence and the survival of the fittest) – is interpreted to imply, when applied to human activities, that extreme competition will allow the most "fit" competitors to rise to the top and to survive in this "struggle for existence," and this process of dog-eat-dog competition leads to both material and social progress. Not only has this theory been shown to be seriously flawed, the putative social implications of Darwinian natural selection do not accord with the findings of contemporary neoDarwinists who maintain, for example, that the behavior of monkeys and apes reveals a blend of competition and cooperation and, generally, a close connection to human moral behavior.Adam Smith provides a more helpful view of the connection between nature and capitalism. He maintains that nature's wisdom, as seen in its harmony and balance, is displayed in economics and human nature. Competitive free enterprise, as a vehicle for exchange, functions within a cooperative context and exhibits virtues and values such as mutual help and benefit, trust, harmony, and friendship. I shall show that neoDarwinists agree with Smith's view that nature supports a connection between competition and cooperation, and they maintain that moral activity, rather than destructive dog-eat-dog competition, is necessary to achieve the goals of natural selection.     

人工挖孔灌注桩在某高速公路工程的应用实践

结合工程实践,从人工挖孔灌注桩的特点,分析人工挖孔灌注桩的适用条件,阐述人工挖孔灌注桩施工工艺、质量安全控制要点、常见问题的预防与处理等。     

政府规模与经济发展

本文研究了地方政府规模过大对地方经济发展的负面影响。通过计量分析发现,地方政府规模与当地人均GDP水平呈显著负相关。地方政府可以在培育市场、提供公共物品上发挥重要作用,从而成为"帮助之手";但也有可能设租和寻租,从而阻碍当地的经济发展,成为"掠夺之手"。而设租、寻租的规模与政府的规模密切相关。本文试图通过信号传递模型解释政府规模是如何影响地方经济发展的,以此说明政府机构改革的必要性。