The hot hand fallacy re-examined: new evidence from the English Premier League

Previous studies have illustrated human misperceptions of randomness and resultant suboptimal decision-making with reference to the ‘hot hand’ or momentum effect in sport, the notion of serial dependency between outcomes. However, issues of omitted variables bias have plagued many due to a reliance on nonparametric techniques or basic regression models. This article examines across-game and within-game momentum in the English Premier League (EPL) football competition using fixed effects regressions to control for time-invariant heterogeneity in conjunction with traditional nonparametric techniques. Although the results show evidence of performance reversal following winning streaks, no such evidence is found for streaks of draws or losses or in goal-scoring performance within games. This suggests that momentum is better suited as a post hoc label of performance than a robust causal phenomenon.     

关于二手房交易个人所得税的若干思考

2013年3月1日,国务院发布了楼市调控“新国五条”的细则,再次提升了中央政府对房地产市场的调控力度,也是十年内第九次关于房地产的调控措施.该细则中重要的涉税措施是对二手房交易所得征收个人所得税.由于政策出台没有更详细的征税办法跟进,引起社会各界的强烈反响,实际执行过程中也出现了各种各样的问题,只有正视和解决这些问题,才能确保其调控作用的充分发挥.     

习俗元制度:另一只看不见的手

经济运行不仅受到市场机制这只看不见的手调节,而且还受到习俗元制度这另一只看不见的手的调节.从习俗与竞争发生作用的先后顺序来看,习俗比竞争更古老,起作用的时间更长.习俗元制度具有习俗的模糊性、可塑性与适应性、刚性与稳定性、广泛的群众性和外在的强制性以及默认性等特征.习俗元制度作为一种自发的内在制度安排,不仅存在于"习俗经济"之中,而且广泛存在于现代市场经济中.习俗元制度对于市场经济的运行具有重要作用,习俗元制度的实施机制主要有自我实施和第三方参与下的实施.     

手刹操纵机构大总成失效与溜车现象探析

文章对溜车及手刹操纵机构大总成的基础理论和概念进行了简要阐述,针对手刹操纵机构大总成失效与溜车的关系,重点从正确使用手刹和保证手刹操纵机构的质量2个方面阐述如何防止溜车。     

Are There Hot Hands Among Mutual Fund Houses in Hong Kong?

This paper examines the short-term performance persistence of thirty-two fund houses in Hong Kong during January 1986 to December 1995. We compute fund house returns using averages of all equity funds in each house. Then we evaluate their hot hand performance using the median return as benchmark on a rolling monthly basis. The results show that there were only two 'hot hand' fund houses. Findings using annual returns confirm the non-existence of a hot hand phenomenon. However, we find a strong correlation between conditional and unconditional probabilities of winning repeatedly in consecutive months     

对“吉芬商品”的重新解释及实证分析

“吉芬商品”作为一种反常的经济现象,引起了众多经济学家的兴趣。在西方传统的经济学理论中,对其做出了较为详细的解释。笔者通过对反常经济现象的观察和思考,利用凯恩斯经济学中最基本的供需曲线对其做了全新的解释,并且通过对深圳市房地产市场的实证分析,进一步验证了新解释的可靠性。     

旋挖桩孔内掉钻螺杆机械手打捞施工技术

目前旋挖钻机在施工时，由于各种原因旋挖钻头孔内掉落的事故时有发生，由于掉落的钻头处于孔底最深达数十米的泥浆中，打捞难度大。现阶段打捞钻头的方式普遍存在成本高、不安全、成功率低等弊端。为此，研发一种可安装在旋挖机钻杆上，并通过钻杆下放到深孔内打捞钻头的机械手。通过旋挖钻机旋转钻杆，操控机械手的开合，使其牢固抓住掉落钻头顶部的凸出方套，从而使机械手与掉落的钻头建立连接，再通过旋挖钻机提升钻杆将掉落的钻头打捞出孔，达到快捷、准确、安全、经济的效果。     

Grabbing hand or financial constraint mitigation effect? A reexamination of the relationship between institutional development and cash holdings

This study reexamines the impact of institutional development on corporate cash holdings. Our findings confirm that institutional development has a negative effect on corporate cash holdings, which may be partially explained by the financial constraint mitigation effect of institutional development. Our empirical evidence also shows that the corruption index, used as a proxy for the grabbing hand effect, does not mediate the negative effect of institutional development on corporate cash holdings. Furthermore, the impact of institutional development on corporate cash holdings is not significant for large firms and state-owned enterprises. These results are robust to different measures of cash holdings.