分税制背景下央地财政分配关系的“隐性博弈”问题分析

剖析现阶段蔓延于我国央地财政关系实际运行中的"隐性博弈"现象:相对于形式规范、互动行为模式稳定和程序正常的博弈而言,利益主体以非规范、非程序和模糊性等策略追求实现自身利益诉求的一种特殊形式进行的博弈。文章基于制度——行为分析框架解释了这一博弈现象的生成机制,提出在特定的制度情境下治理这种隐性博弈,应该在对地方利益诉求"同情地理解"基础上进一步完善分税制制度,充分重视发挥非正式规则体系的作用。     

Corporate Real Estate Sale and Leaseback Effect: Empirical Evidence from Europe

Corporate real estate disposals have increased in Europe during the past few years. In this research paper, we study market reactions of publicly traded European companies' real estate sale and leaseback announcements during 1998–2004. This study is one of the first ones to study the sale and leaseback impact on corporate value with a pan‐European data. We find that the sale and leaseback announcements have on average positive impact to firm's value which is in line with the previous studies. However, we also find that the positive effect is mainly caused by the deals with high transaction value to company market value ratio. Smaller transactions do not create on average any abnormal returns. Our results support the hypothesis that the positive sale and leaseback announcement effect is a consequence of revealed hidden value of the company's assets. Thus, sale and leaseback can also be seen as a mechanism for revealing the hidden value of company's assets to the market.     

基于安全人机工程学的棉纺织企业事故隐患剖析及对策

本文运用安全人机工程学理论,从人、机、环境系统的角度,阐述了棉纺织企业存在的事故隐患共性,提出了预防事故的对策及措施,以期指导棉纺织企业安全生产管理实践,从而提高企业安全管理水平。     

试析隐蔽课程

隐蔽课程以物质形态、精神形态、制度形态等多种形式存在,具有隐蔽性、广泛性、难预期性、持久性和易接受性等特点,对学生品德的发展起陶冶、导向、规范作用。研究隐蔽课程对德育具有重要意义。     

初探我国经济型酒店生存发展状况

经济型酒店已在欧美及日本等发达国家发展成为非常成熟的酒店经营模式。伴随我国经济的快速发展和市场需求的不断变化,这种经营模式必然成为酒店业发展热点,并将改变酒店业的竞争格局。本文将分析我国经济型酒店发展存在问题,探讨生存发展对策。     

Patterns of technology life cycles: stochastic analysis based on patent citations

Patent analysis has been considered as an effective means of estimating phases of a technology life cycle. However, previous studies have not considered the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of a technology’s progression since they were based on deterministic methods, mainly fitting s- or double s-shaped curves to patent application counts. Moreover, previous methods cannot be executed at the individual patent level. We propose a stochastic technology life cycle analysis to trace the phases of a technology’s progression based on patent citations and identify the patterns of technology life cycles at the individual patent level. At the heart of the proposed approach are a hidden Markov model to estimate the probability of a system being at a certain hidden state from observation and cluster analysis to group a set of objects according to their similarities. A case study of patents about laser technology in lithography is presented.     

Forecasting household debt with latent transition modelling

Latent transition modelling (LTM) was used to forecast household debt patterns. A model based on three waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) and over 36,000 responses from the biennial panel study of Polish households – Social Diagnosis – provided data for these forecasts. Based on the fact that transitions between latent states are shaped by previous latent states and socio-economic covariates – age of household head, income and number of household members – we were able to demonstrate LTM as a tool to generate aggregate predictions for both medium- and long-term evolution of the household credit market. The declining tendency for household credit participation rates in Poland is expected in the longer term. In particular, the trend should be supported by decline in the proportion of mortgage debtors. The groups of households indebted for the consumption of durables and those seeking credit outside the banking sector are the groups predicted to remain stable or increase in size.     

岩溶注浆在铁路路基处理中的应用

我国西南地区属多岩溶地区,喀斯特地貌分布广泛,近几年来铁路部门不断探索铁路通过岩溶地区的处理方法,文章详细介绍了洛阳至湛江铁路通过益阳至永州段DK323+777~DK324+080岩溶路基的注浆处理施工情况,说明岩溶注浆处理铁路路基是一种行之有效的方法。     

Cave Tourism: Tourists' Characteristics,Motivations to Visit,and the Segmentation of Their Behavior

Geotourism is one among many types of ecotourism or nature tourism. Cave tourism within geotourism has gained popularity in Korea. The study's objectives include cave tourists' characteristics, segmenting them according to motivation factors, and finally identifying who they are. The sample population for this research consisted of tourists who have visited the Hwansun Cave in Samchuk City. Among a total of 547 questionnaires distributed, 537 questionnaires were used for further data analyses. On the basis of cluster analysis using the motivation factors, cluster 1 was named an “escape-seeking group”, cluster 2 was termed a “knowledge- and novelty-seeking group”, cluster 3 was called a “novelty-seeking group” and cluster 4 was termed a “socialization group”. Differences in socio-demographic variables, beliefs about cave tourism resources, preferred cave tourism products, satisfaction with this tour, willingness to participate in another cave tour and belief in the value of cave tourism resources were found among the four clusters. The study's findings were expected to be helpful in understanding who they are.     

Renewable and nonrenewable energy production and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: a hidden cointegration analysis

The objective of this article is to investigate the hypothesis of asymmetric effects between economic growth and renewable and nonrenewable energy production. To this end, both the linear cointegration and the hidden cointegration methodology are employed, with the latter allowing a straightforward delimitation of the data in an economically sensible way. We test for the presence of hidden cointegration across 12 sub-Saharan African countries spanning the period 1971–2011. The empirical results confirm the growth hypothesis for a subset of countries, suggesting that their growth could be adversely affected by conservation policies, while for a second subgroup of countries they confirm the conservation hypothesis, indicating that conservation policies could enhance the growth process in these countries. The differentiation of the results could be captured entirely by the linear approach, indicating that the lack of cointegration between renewable energy production and economic growth found in previous studies may be due to failures to properly delimit the nonlinearity property in the data.