Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

This paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk using data from China. We develop a new index to measure Chinese economic policy uncertainty and find that economic policy uncertainty has a remarkable positive effect on stock price crash risk. However, the effect reverses later. The results also indicate that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk is more prominent for state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, this effect is more prominent for firms with higher information asymmetry and firms with greater disagreement among investors, indicating that economic policy uncertainty affects crash risk through two mechanisms: managers’ concealment of bad news and investors’ heterogeneous beliefs.     

Predicting FDI inflows: Exploring a nonlinear relationship between peace years,oil wealth,and the rule of law

Despite previous studies investigating the impacts of various factors such as peace years, natural resources, and the rule of law on foreign direct investment (FDI), empirical findings remain inconclusive. Therefore, this study investigates the interplay between these factors in shaping host country conditions that facilitate FDI inflows. Using generalized additive models, we examine the simultaneous effects of peace years, oil wealth, and the rule of law on FDI inflows in a sample of non-OECD countries from 1970 to 2009. Our results reveal that established peace is a critical factor in attracting FDI inflows for both oil-exporting and non-oil-exporting countries. However, the effects of the rule of law vary depending on oil wealth. Oil-exporting countries receive more FDI inflows when they have a weak rather than a strong rule of law, while non-oil-exporting countries tend to receive more foreign investments when they have a moderately strong rule of law. We argue that countries with oil wealth combined with a moderately weak rule of law provide an environment that is conducive to multinational corporations (MNCs) in extractive industries seeking monopoly rents. Conversely, countries without oil wealth should create stable yet efficient environments that protect property rights and promote labor market flexibility to appeal to non-resource-seeking MNCs.     

住房抵押贷款支持证券的利率风险度量——基于"建元2005-1 MBS"A证券的实证

住房抵押贷款支持证券中隐含期权的存在导致未来现金流不确定,久期和凸度等利率风险管理工具不再适用。本文基于OAS理念建立了住房抵押贷款支持证券的利率风险度量过程:采用多项式样条函数法构建零息票收益率曲线,采用Vasicek模型描述动态利率期限结构,通过蒙特卡罗方法模拟利率路径并确定未来现金流,采用ARMA模型描述和预测提前偿付率,进而计算出OAS、有效久期和有效凸度的值。最后以建元2005-1MBSA证券为对象进行了实证研究。     

Banks’ non-traditional activities under regulatory changes: impact on risk,performance and capital adequacy

Using the big six Canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018, we examine the impact of non-interest income on Canadian banks’ risk, performance and capital under the different major regulatory changes made to the Bank Act of Canada. Our results show that Canadian banks’ expansion into non-traditional activities had slightly decreased their risks and significantly improved their performance benefitting from income diversification. Moreover, while adhering to capital adequacy regulation, reshuffling banks’ portfolio towards non-traditional activities did not reduce Canadian banks’ capital ratio. In spite of the re-regulation towards universal banking against ring-fencing, this feature buttresses the effectiveness of capital adequacy regulation in Canada in linking banks capital allocation with their risk taking.     

资本市场的创新与风险防范

资本市场存在外生性与内生性两种不同的风险。资本市场的创新可以分散和转移外部性风险,但加大了内生性风险,起到累积和放大资本市场风险的作用。美国次级贷款危机演变为金融危机,过度的金融创新起了传导链和放大器的作用。推进我国资本市场的创新,必须寻求创新与监管及风险防范的平衡;服务于实体经济发展的要求;健全资本市场的监督与宏观调控体系及机制;防范外部金融冲击和国际金融危机传染。     

Experimental evidence on the ‘insidious’ illiquidity risk

This paper introduces an experiment aiming to investigate the contribution of illiquidity risk to the total risk of a collective investment project. If implemented, the project succeeds with a known probability. Yet the project fails if the quota of investors is not reached in the first place. Hence strategic uncertainty compounds its effect with the “intrinsic risk” of the project. Results confirm the insidious nature of illiquidity: as long as a first collective default does not occur, investors accept high intrinsic risk projects. After a first default, they become extremely prudent and come back to market only gradually. After several defaults, private agents manage to coordinate on a relatively low intrinsic risk above which they refuse to participate in the project. Macroeconomic policy implications follow.     

水泥企业并购的财务风险识别与控制

当前,并购重组已成为国内知名水泥企业做大做强的战略选择,但企业并购重组过程中不可避免地存在企业并购的风险,由于信息的不对称性、外部环境的不确定性、经营管理活动的复杂性和企业自身能力的有限性而导致企业并购后达不到预期的经济效益,甚至给并购之后企业的经营活动留下隐患。并购风险贯穿于整个并购活动,作为企业并购成功关键因素的财务风险应该引起我们足够的重视,能否识别、规避和控制并购中的财务风险,决定着并购的成败。     

基于职业能力的高职课程体系设计探讨

职业教育项目课程体系改革是建立基于工作任务的教学模式,其理论基础是职业教育课程的结构观,其课程结构是选择、组织及学习工作知识,其教学方案是项目计划、设计、检测,反馈构成的＂PDCA＂学习循环。其课程项目是涵盖整个职业能力的空间设计,也是对专业课程体系的构建。     

中外高校机构编制管理的比较及启示

我国高校机构编制管理缺乏有力的外部监督和内部约束;而以美国为代表的国外高校则在“行政-学术”二元权力架构的安排、管理机构的设置、人员编制的分类与控制等方面形成了一整套科学的做法。借鉴其经验,应通过国家或地方行政立法来规范高校机构编制管理,将机构编制管理绩效纳入对高校的考核范围,要在精简机构的同时建立健全高校的学术权力机构,各地教育行政部门也要建立起一套完善的实施监管的技术性程序。     

高职数学与文化课程教学设计与实施研究

长期以来,高职数学教学过分注重数学知识的学习及技能的训练,追求数学结果的推理演绎,忽视了与数学结果相关的人文因素,影响了对学生的数学文化教育。数学文化作为现代人文化素质的一部分,不仅是概念、定理、公式、计算,更是一种思维方式、创新品质、文化精神。它在陶冶人的情操、健全自我人格、提高思维能力、传播文化思想、实现人的全面发展等方面具有不可忽视的作用。通过对高职院校开设数学与文化课程的研究与实践,积极探索高职数学课程改革方案,深化了高职数学的课程改革,创新了高职数学的教育理念。