Arrow–Debreu equilibria for rank‐dependent utilities with heterogeneous probability weighting

We study Arrow–Debreu equilibria for a one‐period‐two‐date pure exchange economy with rank‐dependent utility agents having heterogeneous probability weighting and outcome utility functions. In particular, we allow the economy to have a mix of expected utility agents and rank‐dependent utility ones, with nonconvex probability weighting functions. The standard approach for convex economy equilibria fails due to the incompatibility with second‐order stochastic dominance. The representative agent approach devised in Xia and Zhou (2016) does not work either due to the heterogeneity of the weighting functions. We overcome these difficulties by considering the comonotone allocations, on which the rank‐dependent utilities become concave. Accordingly, we introduce the notion of comonotone Pareto optima, and derive their characterizing conditions. With the aid of the auxiliary problem of price equilibria with transfers, we provide a sufficient condition in terms of the model primitives under which an Arrow–Debreu equilibrium exists, along with the explicit expression of the state‐price density in equilibrium. This new, general sufficient condition distinguishes the paper from previous related studies with homogeneous and/or convex probability weightings.     

The leverage effect and the basket-index put spread

Benchmark models that exogenously specify equity dynamics cannot explain the large spread in prices between put options written on individual banks and options written on the bank index during the financial crisis. However, theory requires that asset dynamics be specified exogenously and that endogenously determined equity dynamics exhibit a “leverage effect” that increases put prices by fattening the left tail of the distribution. The leverage effect is larger for puts on individual stocks than for puts on the index, thus increasing the basket-index spread. Time-series and cross-sectional variation in the leverage effect explains option prices well.     

Modeling asymmetric price transmission in the European food market

In this study, we employ a multivariate panel error correction model (PVECM) to investigate asymmetric price transmission among the farm, processor, and retail segments of the European food supply chain for the 2005–2016 period. The results indicate that, in both the long- and short-run, retail prices respond more strongly to processor price increases than decreases and the same occurs for processor prices due to farm price changes. Thus, the findings demonstrate the presence of positive asymmetric price transmission in the European food supply chain. Finally, the results of the present study indicate that the food price pass-through varies greatly across product category and across countries, and that the pass-through to producer prices is greater than that to consumer prices.     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

On Targeting Frameworks And Optimal Monetary Policy

We show that speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently outperforms flexible inflation targeting and flexible price level targeting in empirical medium‐scale DSGE models under discretionary policymaking. In contrast to small‐scale New Keynesian models, this welfare ranking of the targeting frameworks is not overturned when inflation dynamics are mostly backward‐looking. Importantly, the performance of the speed limit policy shows less sensitivity to its parameterization than other frameworks that target the inflation rate or the price level.     

Free-play impact by customer segment

Little is known about the effectiveness of casino free-play campaigns, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in annual redemptions. These costly play incentives are awarded to individual players, based largely on management’s evaluation of their historical play. Extant campaign-level research suggests these incentives may not be effective in driving spend per visit, but there has been no attempt to examine efficacy across player tiers (e.g., light, medium, and heavy users). Analysis of 365 days of performance data from a Las Vegas Strip casino produced varied results across tiers, but all tier-level findings indicated a failure to recover the face value of the free-play incentives. While no support was garnered for the house money effect, the results were consistent with the notion of loss aversion. The methodological approach outlined herein provides the means to critically evaluate free-play offers at the tier level, fast-tracking campaign optimization via more targeted revisions.     

异质性媒体与资本市场信息效率

新闻传媒通过其信息处理和传播功能 ,对资本市场的信息整合产生了重要影响.不同于以往的研究 ,文章深入新闻传媒行业内部 ,探讨了不同类别的媒体(中央媒体与各地方媒体)对中国资本市场信息效率的差异化影响.研究发现:中央媒体既可以直接提升资本市场信息效率 ,又可以通过削弱政治关联对资本市场信息整合的不利影响,间接改善资本市场信息效率;地方媒体虽然能够直接提升资本市场信息效率 ,但是无力削弱政治关联对资本市场信息整合的不利影响 ,其间接渠道并不起作用.这一结果考虑了媒体跟踪上市公司时可能产生的内生性问题 ,在一系列稳健性测试中始终存在.文章认为 ,相对于地方媒体 ,中央媒体在信息透明度较低情况下的信息获取和处理的能力优势 ,以及面对政治关联时保持客观报道的独立性优势,可以解释这一发现.     

林权流转主导模式与制度创新

顶层制度上受相似的基本的社会条件制约,集体林权流转进而也期待形成"三权分离"的经营格局。但是,由林地、林权本身特性决定的物权式流转的主导模式,将导致林农承包权的退出。基此,通过经验与规范实证的结合分析,诸如林下经营权及其流转等有关制度性措施、实践的意义与价值及其局限性可被清晰认知,进而制度供给仍有不足也被问题化。欲有所作为并能有效应对,则林权流转在普通的方式之外,可考虑引入典权制度。而典权是一种均衡的制度安排,兼顾了社会实质正义。     

Forecasting using heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence

In this paper, we focus on forecasting methods that use heterogeneous panels in the presence of cross-sectional dependence in terms of both spatial error dependence and common factors. We propose two main approaches to estimating the factor structure: a residuals-based approach, and an approach that uses a panel of auxiliary variables to extract the factors. Small sample properties of the proposed methods are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations and applied to predict house price inflation in OECD countries.     

Environmental policies,national culture,and stock price crash risk: Evidence from renewable energy firms

This study investigates the impact of country‐level environmental performance and national culture on the stock price crash risk of renewable energy firms. Employing a large sample of 626 renewable energy firms across 31 countries, we find a significant nonlinear relationship between country‐level environmental performance and crash risk. National culture dimensions are found to strongly predict the crash risk of renewable energy firms, particularly after the global financial crisis. On the contrary, national culture dimensions and environmental policies are observed to not exert any significance in explaining the crash risk of fossil fuel firms. Our results are robust with respect to alternative measures of stock price crash risk and the endogeneity of national culture dimensions. Overall, the findings of this paper contribute to the environmental economics literature by providing new evidence regarding the role of societal and environmental factors in explaining the stock price crash risk of energy firms.