收入流动性、代际传递与农村反贫困———异质性视角下新疆30个贫困县的实证分析简

文章从收入流动性、贫困代际传递与反贫困关系的理论研究入手,利用2000—2012年数据,选取新疆30个贫困县为研究主体,运用面板模型和面板误差修正模型分析了三者之间的长期和短期动态关系。研究发现：（1）从长期看,收入流动性、贫困代际传递对反贫困有显著作用,且收入流动性对反贫困的促进作用依赖于该县的贫困水平;（2）短期而言,新疆30个贫困县的收入流动性、贫困代际传递对反贫困的效果存在异质性。因此,建议制定以提高收入流动性和减少贫困代际传递为目标的对策和机制,并注重实行差异化措施来达到反贫困效果。     

基于产业异质性的银行贷款政策效应分析——来自上市银行的经验证据

在银行信贷资金配置存在产业间差异的假定下,建立引入产业因素的银行贷款决定模型,考察产业因素影响银行贷款渠道有效性的内在机制,并运用2007年到2010年14家上市银行和5组产业数据展开动态面板模型估计,结果表明：从贷款需求角度看,各个产业的产出对产业贷款的影响效应存在产业间差异;从贷款供给角度看,人民银行运用货币政策工具调控产业贷款的影响效应也存在产业间差异。也就是说,产业因素确实影响到人民银行调控各个特定产业贷款的力度。     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中的公众参与博弈

为改善重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与现状,从社会稳定风险评估3个主要利益主体——中央政府、地方政府与公众不同的利益诉求出发,运用演化博弈模型,探讨在不同利益诉求的相互作用下影响地方政府与公众在社会稳定风险评估中策略选择的因素。研究发现,当公众受到的损失大于参与付出的成本时,双方稳定均衡状态均表现积极,反之,双方可能均表现为消极或积极这两种截然不同的状态。基于此,分析了中央政府对地方政府和公众在社会稳定风险评估博弈中策略选择的影响。最后,提出应加大对地方政府的支持、规范公众参与相关制度、加大教育培训及宣传力度、创新公众参与方式几项政策建议。     

Price and Volatility Transmission and Market Power in the German Fresh Pork Supply Chain

We investigate the relationship between the transmission of price volatility and market power in the German fresh pork supply chain. We use a theoretical model underpinning this relationship followed by an empirical application that uses monthly farm, slaughterhouse and retail pork price data for the period 2000–2011. We examine both the relationships of market power with price level transmission and price volatility transmission in the chain. We use a vector error correction model and least squares regressions to analyse price transmission and price volatility transmissions, respectively. Results show that retail market power limited both types of transmissions. Competition inducing policy measures coupled with measures that support price risk management initiatives of chain actors are suggested.     

Testing vertical price transmission for Vietnam's Robusta coffee

Vietnam has undergone market reforms over the last three decades; and as a consequence, the coffee sector has become increasingly market‐driven. The success of the government's liberalisation policies in terms of market efficiency is investigated by examining the transmission of both positive and negative price changes for Robusta coffee between export and farmgate prices. We used a threshold vector error correction model and high‐frequency daily data. The primary result here is that of a symmetric price transmission between export and farm‐level prices. This result holds when tested with weekly price data, derived from the daily data. Farmgate prices respond faster to decreases than increases in export prices when the long‐run deviation exceeds a certain threshold. These price changes are transmitted within several days. This research also confirms the importance of transaction costs, and other price frictions mostly ignored in prior analyses for coffee.     

流域蓄洪区运用风险预警信息传递联动研究——基于蒙洼蓄洪区利益相关者分析视角

以淮河干流蒙洼蓄洪区为例,分析行蓄洪区内各利益主体的利益诉求框架。运用实地考察法和关键信息人访谈法确定灾情预警信息依据,结合各利益主体的信息需求,提出相应的预警信息传递联动路径。以行蓄洪区预警决策层、管理层以及实施层为切入点,提出多层次、多主体共同参与的信息传递预警模式,以最大限度保障利益相关者的利益,进而实现蓄洪区灾情预警信息传递的价值最大化。     

Price transmission,asymmetric adjustment and threshold effects in the cotton supply chain: a case study for Vidarbha,India

This study examines price transmission asymmetries in Vidarbha's (India) cotton supply chain from 2002 to 2012. The analysis takes account of thresholds in price adjustments toward their long‐run equilibrium. The first stage considers the price dynamics between international and Indian domestic cotton prices. The second stage considers price transmission from domestic to farm gate cotton prices in Vidarbha. Results from the first stage indicate that Indian and international cotton markets are well‐integrated. In contrast, the second stage reveals significant threshold‐type nonlinearities as well as asymmetries in price transmission between domestic and farm gate prices. The short‐run dynamics suggest that the pass‐through from domestic to farm gate prices is larger when domestic prices decrease than when they increase. Moreover, back of the envelope calculations suggest that the loss in revenue for a typical farmer from a decrease in domestic price is larger than the gains from an increase in domestic price of the same magnitude. The implication is that traders benefit from price fluctuations at the expense of farmers. Evidence from fieldwork in Vidarbha suggest that asymmetries revealed in this analysis may be linked to trader's market power and inadequate market information among farmers.     

华北油田冀中电网输配电线路存在的主要问题及应对措施

本文论述了华北油田冀中电网输电线路存在的老化、线路下方违章建筑物、树木顶线、杆塔缺土、施工车辆、挖掘机、吊车误碰导线跳闸等情况,并提出了应对措施。     

海面低仰角数字微波通信系统性能及体制分析

本文介绍了海面低仰角数字微波通信系统的特点，对海面电波多径衰落进行了理论计算，指出了通信系统抗衰落的方法和手段，并给出了一种抗衰落通信系统在海面通信试验中的测试数据。     

哲学视角下的水利工程管理

水利工程管理作为一门学科,有其自身的基本理论,但更重要的还是要有思想基础和精神支柱。哲学是水利工程管理的精神和导向,水利工程管理是哲学的实践和体现。在阐述水利工程决策阶段系统思维及发展思维、实施阶段的创造思维、集成思维和文化思维以及运营阶段的生态思维、责任思维的基础上,从哲学角度对水利工程建设过程、水利工程管理的根本和实质及方法进行了分析。