气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向

农业是以作物生长为基础,因此,受气候变化的影响很大。我国幅员辽阔,东西和南北之间气候 差异显著。气候变化将直接导致我国主要农区水资源和热量资源时空分布格局变化。农业生产所依赖的土 壤肥力和作物品种资源及其抗逆性也会在气候变化的作用下发生变化。气候变化直接导致局部地区农业气 候灾害和农业病虫害频度与强度加剧。在气候变化作用下,我国农业作物种植制度、农业生产结构和地区 布局将会发生相应的变化,导致我国粮食产量波动变化,甚至影响到国家粮食安全。因此,迫切需要深入 分析气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展,提出进一步深入研究的重点发展方向。目前,国内 外围绕气候变化对农业和粮食生产的影响开展了很多研究。综合进来,主要有集中在气候变化对农区水热 土资源要素时空分布变化的影响,对作物品种抗逆性、抗逆基因、品种改良的影响与适应,对作物种植制 度、生产结构与地区布局的影响与适应,对农业生物灾害和非生物灾害尤其是农业旱涝灾害发生的影响, 以及对粮食产量、国家粮食安全和农业发展的影响等方面。从发展趋势看,深入开展气候变化对我国农业 和粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究,科学地把握气候变化背景下水热资源条件、土壤肥力、品种 资源等变化规律,揭示农业病虫害流行暴发特征和气象灾害发生机理,模拟、分析和预测气候变化对我国 农业、粮食生产和国家粮食安全的影响程度和变化趋势,具有重大的科学价值和现实意义,因而也将是气 候变化对农业和粮食生产影响研究的重点发展方向。     

互联网金融时代基金行业的机遇与挑战

伴随着互联网在我国的快速普及,相关的互联网新业态层出不穷。互联网对传统行业频频发起冲击,最引人注目的莫过于当前互联网对金融行业的革新。伴随着这一场快速的行业革命,基金行业首当其冲,传统的渠道优势不再,行业地位收到强势挑战。基金行业如何面对互联网金融时代的机遇与挑战呢?     

商业银行内部评级法的违约概率预测新方法——含随机效应的二值响应面板数据模型

违约概率(PD)的计量是商业银行内部评级体系的基础,它对整个内部评级体系的效果有根本性的影响。目前各种违约概率计量方法最大的缺陷是完全忽略了时间效应的影响,本文提出的含随机效应的二值响应面板数据模型是对现有各种方法的完善。首先,它将二值响应模型融合在面板数据分析中;其次,它特别考虑了因为观测时间不同而产生的时间效应,依此在模型中加入了随机截距项和随机系数。实证结果表明,这一方法具有更好的解释能力和预测效果,是银行业进行内部评级工作的理想模型,因此具有很强的理论意义和实践意义。     

Loop-based strategic decision support systems

This paper gives an introduction to a recently developed strategic decision support methodology, which makes it possible to represent rule-setting and rule-fulfilling decision-making processes in companies with their structural and behavioral differences. This new methodology also allows us to simulate evolutionary processes in company systems based on these two forms of decision-making. The new strategic decision support methodology combines the continuous feedback loop concept of system dynamics with discontinuous logical loops, which we call spiral loops. The spiral loop concept, which is based on new developments in evolutionary theory and in the field of artificial intelligence, is used to represent the rule-setting strategic decisions, which generate qualitative change and evolution. The continuous feedback loop concept is used to model the rule-fulfilling policy decisions of companies, which can generate quantitative changes in interaction processes. In order to demonstrate how loop-based strategic decision support systems work in principle we show the ‘portfolio simulation model,’ which helps us to explain and to design the evolution of multibusiness firms in duopoly markets.     

参与式方法在三北防护林工程中的应用

以山西省中德林业技术合作项目(PAAF)示范县原平市下班政村为例,阐述了参与式方法在三北防护林工程中的应用,并认为式方法能够解决三北防护林工程面临的一些问题。     

土地可持续利用的规划学含义及实现途径分析

在对土地可持续利用内涵进行探讨和传统土地利用规划反思的基础上，提出土地可持续利用的规划学含义和实现途径，包括以人口、资源、环境和社会的多目标协同为目标，修正土地资源供需平衡的内涵，建立土地资源的公平配置模型，加强规划社会的可接受性和参与性，建立规划的协同行动框架和可持续意义上的规划方案评价体系等。     

试论油田工会搞好女工工作的方式和途径

女性职工作为我国一个主要的社会构成群体之一,在社会的改革发展进步的过程中发挥着重要的力量,女工在家庭、工作上的努力,是构建和谐社会的基础。所以油田的工会女工管委会要加强和落实科学发展观精神,敢于实践、勇于探索、乐于服务,做好油田女工的管理工作。     

A participatory assessment of agro-ecosystem sustainability in Abesard,Iran

Participatory approaches have emerged in developing countries as an integrated and holistic system approach for assessing the agro-ecosystem sustainability. The aim is to integrate and apply knowledge about natural and social aspects of agro-ecosystems, taking into account their long-term, uncertain and non-linear relationships. The purpose of the study described in this paper was to assess the sustainability of the agro-ecosystem of Abesard in Tehran Province. A participatory landscape/lifescape appraisal (PLLA) method was used within an agro-ecological framework to assess the farmers’ sense of agricultural sustainability based on different categories of sustainability (better-off, average and poor). Results indicated that a majority of farmers think of sustainability solely as an economic issue, followed by sustainability being a combination of ecological and social concerns. Regarding the indicators of sustainability, results revealed that for farmers in the poor group, resilience and stability were critical criteria, whereas for better-off farmers, stability, reliability and resilience were generally important. However, the average group of the farmers was placed between the two groups. Overall, it was concluded that the economic status of households has an influence on the sustainability of their agro-ecosystems and that improvement of their economic situation promotes agricultural sustainability. It could also be concluded that PLLA has the potential to integrate socio-economic (lifescape) and environmental (landscape) dimensions for analysing the sustainability of agro-ecosystems.     

Power, Property Rights and the Issue of Land Reform: A General Case Illustrated with Reference to Bangladesh

The argument for land reform is most persuasive when the proposed land reform promises not only to improve distribution but also to increase growth and efficiency. Such is the promise in the GKI advocacy of radical redistributive land reform. In this paper, first (a) the Griffin, Khan and Ickowitz (GKI) and (b) World Bank positions on land reform are compared, and their points of agreement and disagreement identified. Secondly, the political economy of Bangladesh is examined to evaluate the appropriateness of these two competing neoclassical approaches for understanding the constraints in the agrarian sector. Thirdly, it is argued that the anomalous evidence on land transactions and productivity in Bangladesh cannot be easily accommodated within purely economic models of markets in the way that the neoclassical approach attempts. Paradoxically, both the World Bank's focus on institutional reform and GKI's focus on radical land reform are derived from such attempts and both suffer from similar empirical and theoretical problems. There is a strong case for going back to Brenner-type political economy approaches for understanding the dynamism and constraints facing agrarian transitions. Such an approach puts the analysis of class and power at the centre stage of an analysis of structure and change in the agrarian economy, and focuses on the distribution of power that prevents primitive accumulation in some countries leading to a capitalist transformation.