Machine learning in individual claims reserving

Machine learning techniques make it feasible to calculate claims reserves on individual claims data. This paper illustrates how these techniques can be used by providing an explicit example in individual claims reserving.     

Genetic risk and value

A conceptual truth about risks is that they involve a possible and future adverse effect or a negative value of some kind. The genetic risks that individuals may face in the health care setting differ in some crucial respects to other kind of risks. The aims of this paper are to analyse the notion of value in the context of genetic risk in the setting of health care, and to suggest a conception of the evaluative aspect of genetic risk that is fruitful for genetic risk information. Two influential and relevant approaches to value, preferentialism and the capability approach, are discussed in the light of certain distinctive features of genetic risk and a third, a sensibility theory of value is suggested. According to this view, the concept of risk is a so-called ‘thick’ evaluative concept that has both a world-guiding function as well as an action-guiding or normative function. It is argued that this provides a more promising way to think about genetic risks in the clinical setting.     

机构投资者与个人投资者非理性行为差异研究

机构投资者与个人投资者是证券市场的重要组成部分,其非理性程度直接影响着市场的健康稳定。本文基于有情境元素的问卷调查,构建包含投资者类别为自变量,年龄和性别为控制变量,16种常见非理性行为为因变量的分析框架,实证检验机构投资者与个人投资者非理性行为差异。结果表明,中国机构投资者与个人投资者都存在严重的非理性行为;相比机构投资者,个人投资者非理性程度更为严重;机构投资者与个人投资者在偏好逆转、证实性偏差、沉没成本、模糊厌恶、处置效应和损失厌恶方面存在显著差异。本研究为投资者防范非理性行为提供建议,为市场稳定发展提供参考。     

Integrated landscape initiatives in Europe: Multi-sector collaboration in multi-functional landscapes

Landscapes are linked to human well-being in a multitude of ways, some of which are challenged by global market forces and traditional management approaches. In response to this situation there has been a rise in local initiatives to sustain the values of landscape. The aim of this paper is to provide a systematic analysis of the spectrum of these initiatives in Europe in terms of patterns of organisation, participants, resources, problems, and landscape values addressed. This review collects examples of integrated landscape initiatives from all over Europe through systematic internet key word searches and canvassing of European umbrella organisations; followed by an online survey of representatives from the identified initiatives (n = 71). Our results show that the most relevant characteristics of integrated landscape initiatives in Europe are: a holistic approach to landscape management (acting in multifunctional landscapes and combining different objectives), the involvement and coordination of different sectors and stakeholders at many levels, and the role as agents of awareness raising and learning hubs. Integrated landscape initiatives mainly depend on impulses of local civil society. Identified barriers to their work include a lack of funding and institutional support. Therefore, political and societal action is needed to increase their effectiveness.     

中国绿色发展中企业环境责任立法探讨

经济活动过程和结果的绿色化主要靠企业承担环境责任来实现，但基于企业的营利本质，期望企业自觉承担环境责任并不现实，必须通过立法从内外部保障、强制其承担环境责任。我国环境保护法及企业法中无法容纳大量的企业环境责任条款，因此我国有必要制定专门的《企业环境责任法》，要求企业承担产品从设计、生产直至废弃的环境责任，并建立环境信息披露、税收优惠等企业承担环境责任的激励约束措施。同时我国应修改环境保护法，提高企业污染环境的成本、将企业环境成本内部化。     

Balance sheet conservatism and audit reporting conservatism

Financial reports are prepared on a going‐concern (GC) basis rather than a liquidation basis even when companies are highly distressed. This allows distressed companies to report book values of assets that greatly exceed their liquidation values, implying a lack of conservatism in the balance sheet. We argue that auditors issue going‐concern opinions in order to warn investors about this lack of balance sheet conservatism. This argument leads to two testable hypotheses. First, for companies that are at risk of bankruptcy, auditors are more likely to issue GC opinions when the book values of assets under the GC assumption are high relative to the expected liquidation values of assets (i.e., when the GC assumption causes the balance sheet to lack conservatism). Second, for companies that enter bankruptcy, the issuance of a prior GC opinion has predictive information content with respect to the wedge between the book values of assets and the future liquidation values of those same assets. Our results strongly support both hypotheses. The findings are important because they indicate that conservative audit reporting helps to compensate for a lack of conservatism in the balance sheet, which arises because the GC assumption permits the book values of assets to exceed their liquidation values.     

Conceptualizing the brand in social media community: The five sources model

The emergence of social media is challenging the ways that marketing academics and practitioners conceptualize and manage brands. This research explores the consumers׳ specific motivations for the purpose and structure of the consumption of brands in social media community. Keeping the evolving economic relevance of social consumption in mind, the resulting conceptual model has been designed to give a better understanding of the unique branding opportunities and relationships that social media present to brand managers. The research employs a triangulated method that includes a social media-based Facebook focus group and face-to-face interviews. The findings suggest that consumers expect some very specific two-way interactions with brands and that social media may be the only way to effectively deliver these demands. This study identifies five core drivers of brand consumption in a social media community articulated in the Five Sources Model: functional, emotional, self-oriented, social and relational. These core drivers represent unique opportunities for brands to enhance their relationships with their customers and to increase the likelihood of an active and beneficial online community built around their brands. Future research implications are discussed.     

财政压力、技术创新与绿色全要素生产率

经济社会转型期典型的中国式"压力型"财政，对地方创新活动和绿色可持续发展具有重要影响。运用2004~2017年中国256个地级市面板数据，实证考察了财政压力对绿色全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。基准检验结果显示，财政压力显著抑制了绿色全要素生产率的提升，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用；中介效应检验发现，财政压力通过抑制技术创新进而阻碍绿色全要素生产率的提升，即验证了财政压力→技术创新→绿色全要素生产率的传导机制；进一步门槛效应检验表明，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的影响存在基于财政压力的双门槛效应，在财政压力的不同门槛值区间，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的促进效应呈现出明显的阶梯性降低趋势。未来需综合完善中国式"压力型"财政激励制度，合理控制财政压力的区间范围，助力技术创新以提升城市绿色全要素生产率。     

耦合多元价值的生态风景道规划研究 ——以乌兰察布四横交通带风景道为例

近年来随着中国对交通运输与旅游融合的重视，风景道的研究与建设被提上日程。基于对生态保护、特色景观与休闲游憩的多元需求，由国内对风景道的研究和一系列实例入手，在传统风景道概念的基础上提出建设居于多元价值的生态风景道。同时，以乌兰察布四横风景道的规划为例，研究了基于形态学空间格局分析的生态网络构建、景观视觉评价的景观节点建设及串联沿途旅游资源的绿道系统建设，在实践中探讨了多元价值目标导向下风景道规划设计的策略和方法。     

个体主动性人格对学习能力影响的实证研究

探讨了员工个体的主动性人格特质对其学习能力的影响及其作用机制,以及员工的工作卷入和反馈寻求在这一关系中的中介作用。运用企业236个员工数据进行分析,得出以下结论:企业员工的主动性人格显著促进其学习能力;员工的主动性人格显著强化其工作卷入和反馈寻求;员工对内的工作卷入促进了其学习能力,且在主动性人格和学习能力的关系中起部分中介的作用;员工对外的反馈寻求促进其学习能力,且在主动性人格和学习能力的关系中起部分中介作用。研究结论为组织个人学习能力的提升提供了一个重要的前因变量,并对员工工作卷入与反馈寻求的中介作用机制进行了探讨,丰富了个人学习研究,并提出了相关的实践建议。