Forecasting South African inflation using non-linearmodels: a weighted loss-based evaluation

The conduct of inflation targeting is heavily dependent on accurate inflation forecasts. Non-linear models have increasingly featured, along with linear counterparts, in the forecasting literature. In this study, we focus on forecasting South African inflation by means of non-linear models and using a long historical dataset of seasonally adjusted monthly inflation rates spanning from 1921:02 to 2013:01. For an emerging market economy such as South Africa, non-linearities can be a salient feature of such long data, hence the relevance of evaluating non-linear models’ forecast performance. In the same vein, given the fact that 1969:10 marks the beginning of a protracted rising trend in South African inflation data, we estimate the models for an in-sample period of 1921:02–1966:09 and evaluate 1, 4, 12, and 24 step-ahead forecasts over an out-of-sample period of 1966:10–2013:01. In addition, using a weighted loss function specification, we evaluate the forecast performance of different non-linear models across various extreme economic environments and forecast horizons. In general, we find that no competing model consistently and significantly beats the LoLiMoT’s performance in forecasting South African inflation.     

林业盗伐风险的诱发机制及防范措施

盗伐是每个林业企业都要面对的最主要的人为风险。它不仅给林业企业带来损失,也会使森林局部林相遭到破坏,影响附近林木正常生长。尽可能减少盗伐发生,是林业企业的工作任务之一。评价盗伐风险,分析盗伐诱发机制,并针对诱发机制提出相应防范措施,可为减少盗伐发生提供政策参考。     

农村网络城市化是解决“三农”问题的根本：理论与实证——以广西都安为例

农民享有的用路权、用水权、用电权、通讯权、上网权与市民一样,是农村网络城市化理论的核心内容,其理论基础是“小农理性命题”和“诱致性制度变迁理论”。广西都安的实证分析支持此命题——农村网络城市化理论是解决“三农”问题的根本。     

联合V2X通信和最小跳数距离的车辆定位方法

针对传统V2X定位方法定位成功率及定位精度较低的问题,提出了一种联合V2X通信和最小跳数距离的车辆定位方法。车辆利用最小跳数距离估算自身与通信范围外辅助节点间的相对距离,并利用路径相似度因子最高的辅助节点对该误差进行补偿,从而改善定位性能受通信距离约束的局限性。同时,综合考虑距离、辅助节点类型对定位性能的影响,利用加权最小二乘法对车辆位置坐标进行解算,提升定位的精度。仿真结果表明,所提定位方法与V2X定位方法相比,在定位成功率及定位精度方面分别提升38.6%和12.5%,具有一定的应用价值。     

How Large is Congressional Dependence in Agriculture? Bayesian Inference about ‘Scale’ and ‘Scope’ in Measuring a Spatial Externality

The political economy literature on agriculture emphasises influence over political outcomes via lobbying conduits in general, political action committee contributions in particular, and the pervasive view that political preferences with respect to agricultural issues are inherently geographic. In this context, ‘interdependence’ in Congressional vote behaviour manifests itself in two dimensions. One dimension is the intensity by which neighbouring vote propensities influence one another, and the second is the geographic extent of voter influence. We estimate these facets of dependence using data on a Congressional vote on the 2001 Farm Bill using routine Markov chain Monte‐Carlo procedures and Bayesian model averaging, in particular. In so doing, we develop a novel procedure to examine both the reliability and the consequences of different model representations for measuring both the ‘scale’ and the ‘scope’ of spatial (geographic) co‐relations in voting behaviour.     

锅炉引风机叶轮的改造

重点讨论了锅炉引风机叶轮的改造过程,并介绍其改造后的使用效果。     

中国省际工业绿色化评价及空间差异性研究

从资源消耗绿色化、废物排放绿色化与工业转型绿色化三方面构建工业绿色化评价指标体系，基于2007—2016年30省面板数据和加权TOPSIS方法对中国工业绿色化水平进行评价，并利用泰尔熵指数、基尼系数和变异系数对省际工业绿色化空间差异性进行阐述。结果表明：（1）省际工业绿色化水平由高到低依次为东部地区、中部地区、西部地区和东北地区；东部地区稳中有升，中西部地区相对稳定，东北地区下降趋势显著。（2）省际工业绿色化空间差异性总体变化幅度不大，且以泰尔熵指数、基尼系数与变异系数测度的省际工业绿色化空间差异性变化趋势呈现出明显同步性。（3）通过对泰尔熵指数空间分解发现，地区内的省际工业绿色化空间差异性不断变小，而地区间的省际工业绿色化空间差异性小幅变大。     

The political economy of ‘ordered competition’ in European telecoms

This article discusses the current efforts of policymakers to spur development of telecommunications infrastructure. It argues that the policy of ‘ordered competition’, widely implemented in this sector, has formed a highly beneficial environment for major players, who have the ability to influence the regulatory machine. The system protects the status quo, impedes the efficiency of the market process and allows unnecessary public subsidy of the industry's development. The main alternative to this regulatory regime is structural reform of the industry and the formation of a genuinely competitive marketplace which could function without ex ante regulation.     

中国能源强度的空间异质性及其影响因素研究

伴随着我国经济增长以及产业结构升级,能源强度及其影响因素在空间分布上呈现的特性具有新的变化。选取2015年中国30个省(区、市)的相关数据建立地理加权回归模型,实证研究了能源强度的空间异质性及其影响因素。结果表明:中国省域能源强度存在明显正的空间自相关性,并且在空间上存在明显的集聚特征,西北地区能源强度较高,东南地区能源强度较低;技术进步、经济发展水平、外开放程度与能源强度成负相关关系,对能源强度的降低有促进作用;第二产业比重、第三产业比重、能源价格与能源强度成正相关关系。     

金融聚集对企业融资约束的影响及机制研究

文章探讨了金融聚集对企业融资约束的影响，发现金融聚集对企业的融资约束产生正向的缓解作用。研究样本包括2009 年至2019 年A 股上市公司，通过采用排序逻辑回归方法，构建了企业融资约束的指标并发现融资约束是一个广泛存在的问题，但其在不同企业之间的程度存在明显的差异。利用区域熵指数来衡量中国31 个省、市、自治区的金融聚集水平，结果显示，除了经济较为发达的地区之外，宁夏和青海在中西部地区的金融聚集水平相对较高。采用固定效应模型进行的实证检验证实了金融聚集对缓解企业融资约束的积极作用。从机制上分析，金融聚集能通过减少信息不对称，从而有助于缓解企业融资约束。另外，更深入的分析表明，保险行业的聚集对缓解企业融资约束的影响尤为显著。该研究扩展了现有关于金融聚集与区域经济发展之间关系的研究，而且为企业缓解融资约束以及政府在制定金融产业政策时提供了参考。