Equilibria in large economies with a separable Banach commodity space and non-ordered preferences

The purpose of this paper is to provide an existence result of equilibria for economies with a measure space of agents, a non-trivial production sector and an infinite dimensional commodity space. The commodity space is modeled by an ordered separable Banach space whose positive cone has a non-empty interior. The discretization approach proposed in this paper, allows us to extend the existence results in Khan and Yannelis [Equilibrium in markets with a continuum of agents and commodities. In: Khan, M.A., Yannelis, N.C. (Eds.), Equilibrium Theory in Infinite Dimensional Spaces. Springer, Berlin, 1991] and Podczeck [Economic Theory 9 (1997) 585] to economies with a non-trivial production sector and with possibly non-ordered but convex preferences as well as partially ordered (possibly incomplete) but non-convex preferences.     

生产性服务业发展途径、动力与限制因素：基于制造业出口的引致需求视角分析

发展生产性服务业已经成为经济转型的重点话题,引致需求的角度能够提供一个深入了解生产性服务业发展规律的准确视角。从经验分析出发,运用投入产出模型与多层线性模型,得到以下结论：制造业发展高度不够所导致高品质有效需求不足,是生产性服务业发展缓慢的主要原因;目前制造业投资仍是生产性服务需求扩大的主要动力,但出口作用的潜力较大;从异质性角度出发,不同制造业类型对生产性服务业发展的拉动作用存在差异,我国目前的制造业结构不利于生产性服务业进一步发展。     

Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis

We propose the use of Latent Class Analysis methods to analyze the covariate inclusion patterns across specifications resulting from Bayesian model averaging exercises. Using Dirichlet Process clustering, we are able to identify and describe dependency structures among variables in terms of inclusion in the specifications that compose the model space. We apply the method to two datasets of potential determinants of economic growth. Clustering the posterior covariate inclusion structure of the model space formed by linear regression models reveals interesting patterns of complementarity and substitutability across economic growth determinants.     

江苏高校大学生创业意愿及其影响因素研究——基于有序Logistic模型的实证分析

研究大学生创业意愿的影响因素,有利于了解大学生动态,以创业带动就业,从而缓解大学生就业问题。运用江苏省四个市5所学校的调研数据,利用SPSS22.0软件,基于有序Logistic回归模型,从个人特征、创业认知、创业资源、创业环境、创业动机等5个方面28个解释变量,对大学生创业意愿先后进行单因素与多因素实证分析,发现创业环境满意度与创业意愿负相关,其他四个方面与创业意愿为正相关关系。在此基础上,对提高大学生创业意愿提出对策建议。     

论中国民间金融的诱致性制度变迁

中国中小企业融资难是一个现实的问题。应对这个问题,民间金融在中国一些地区出现,并繁荣和发展了起来。本文从诱致性制度变迁的角度,分析了我国民间金融产生和发展的原因,在此基础上进一步分析了政府应该如何作为,在制度供给方面为诱致性制度变迁的顺利实现提供条件。     

Policy Determinants of School Outcomes under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa

In this paper, we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to identify the subset of explanatory variables most strongly associated with the dependent variable. Our analysis indicates that the socio‐economic background of pupils, demographic characteristics such as population groups (Black and White), as well as geographical locations account for a significant variation in pupils’ achievement levels. We also find that the most robust policy determinants of pupils’ test scores are the availability of a library at school, the use of IT in the classroom as well as school climate.     

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in rapidly changing emerging economies presents a number of challenges. In addition to structural changes, the time-series data are usually available only for a short number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Ghana. We compare its forecasting performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. We find that the size and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. We also find that DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both inflation and economic growth in the countries studied.     

北京市种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力研究

以北京市58个种植业“一村一品”村为研究对象,选取种植业“一村一品”村农业产业相关指标。首先,通过因子分析将筛选出的投入方面与产出方面原始评价指标分别进行降维处理,从而构建简化且合理的评价指标。其次,运用组合赋权超效率DEA模型,对种植业“一村一品”村农业产业效率值进行评价分析。最后,运用ESDA模型分析空间因素对“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力的影响,研究其农业产业竞争力是否存在空间相关性,探索种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力在空间分布格局上的联系。结果表明：种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力整体较强,但村间差异较大;农业产业竞争力具有空间相关性,存在集聚效应。据此,提出培育新型经营主体、选准高质量特色产业、协调各区域内互补发展、加强跨区域科技合作交流等建议,推动北京市种植业“一村一品”村农业产业竞争力提升。     

转型期我国公民社会心态影响因素分析：基于CGSS2008调查数据的分析

社会心态是社会群体行为的前兆,社会心态的方向和强度都会很大程度上影响到群体的行为,对社会心态影响因素的研究对调节群体行为具有重要价值。文章以CGSS2008调查数据为支撑,构建了一个社会心态影响因素框架图,并实证研究了影响社会心态的个体因素和社会因素,得到如下结论:我国现阶段,公众对社会公平、社会正义认同度都很不理想,表明我国现阶段公众的社会心态处于一个不健康的状态;个体特征、家庭影响、社会网络以及个体对所处阶层和阶级的认识都对社会心态有重要影响;要改变这种不健康的社会心态,必须清除消极的社会存在,改变不利于社会公平正义的制度因素。     

福建茶叶企业融资优先序及其影响因素分析

在理论分析茶叶企业融资优先序及其影响因素的基础上,通过福建茶叶企业的实地调研,运用ordered logistic针对茶叶企业的融资选择行为进行实证分析,结果发现,企业的经营年限、企业的注册资本、企业主的受教育程度、企业主的管理年限、茶叶企业的利润以及企业融资的外部环境对企业的融资顺序选择有着显著的影响,并得出茶叶企业融资的优先序,进而提出改变产品的销售渠道、提高企业主的受教育程度等政策建议。