Cost/margin analysis: a third approach to menu pricing and design

The article presents a menu analysis methodology that is compared to menu engineering and the Miller matrix. Cost/margin analysis uses item food cost percentage and weighted dollar contribution margin to develop a sales mix that will both minimize the overall food cost percentage and optimize sales revenue and gross profit return. Previous methods of menu analysis have treated food cost percentage and dollar contribution margin in a mutually exclusive manner. This has resulted in biased interpretation of the data. Cost/margin analysis displays the food cost and contribution margin graphically and clearly identifies the menu items that are helping or hindering the revenue-cost-profit objectives. This information allows the menu to be designed to improve forecasting and cost control techniques.     

A GWR-Based Study on Spatial Pattern and Structural Determinants of Shanghai＇ s Housing Price

利用上海市外环以内2010年12月1014个小区的平均房价数据,通过构建地理加权回归模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法（OLS）进行比较,揭示上海小区房价的空间分异和不同影响因子的影响。研究发现,每增加或减少一个单位各影响因子对房价的影响大小依次为：建成时间,到CBD距离,绿化率,到公园距离,距地铁站距离,距超市距离和距学校距离。同时,地理加权回归分解成局部参数估计优于OLS提供的全局参数估计,它可以深刻的揭示出房价和空间影响因子之间复杂的关系,而且可视化的工具可以用地图的形式更详细的呈现出城市房价的整体景观,这些都是传统OLS无法比拟的。     

基于地理加权回归的上海市房价空间分异及其影响因子研究

利用上海市外环以内2010年12月1014个小区的平均房价数据,通过构建地理加权回归模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)进行比较,揭示上海小区房价的空间分异和不同影响因子的影响。研究发现,每增加或减少一个单位各影响因子对房价的影响大小依次为:建成时间,到CBD距离,绿化率,到公园距离,距地铁站距离,距超市距离和距学校距离。同时,地理加权回归分解成局部参数估计优于OLS提供的全局参数估计,它可以深刻的揭示出房价和空间影响因子之间复杂的关系,而且可视化的工具可以用地图的形式更详细的呈现出城市房价的整体景观,这些都是传统OLS无法比拟的。     

福建茶叶企业融资优先序及其影响因素分析

在理论分析茶叶企业融资优先序及其影响因素的基础上,通过福建茶叶企业的实地调研,运用ordered logistic针对茶叶企业的融资选择行为进行实证分析,结果发现,企业的经营年限、企业的注册资本、企业主的受教育程度、企业主的管理年限、茶叶企业的利润以及企业融资的外部环境对企业的融资顺序选择有着显著的影响,并得出茶叶企业融资的优先序,进而提出改变产品的销售渠道、提高企业主的受教育程度等政策建议。     

基于制度变迁的我国商品期货交割演进分析

交割是连接期货市场和现货市场的桥梁和纽带,是促使期货价格和现货价格趋合的制度保证。我国商品期货交割制度是在政府偏好主导期货市场的发展、现货市场基础逐渐加强和借鉴西方成熟市场交割制度的基础上建立和发展起来的,其制度变迁过程反映了从“零交割观点”到“限制交割观点”再到“无限制交割观点”的转变。过去二十多年,中国商品期货交割制度的演变是政府推动的强制性制度变迁;随着中国经济进入新常态,未来交割制度创新的路径应当由强制性变迁向诱致性变迁转变。政府应放松对市场微观主体（投资投机者、套利者、套期保值者和经纪商等）合理的自发行动的限制,充分发挥其主观能动性和创新能力;市场微观主体则需加强与政府监管部门的沟通及互动,以减少制度变迁的成本和阻力。     

Using Weighted Least Squares to Deflate Input–Output Tables

This article proposes a balancing procedure for the deflation of input–output (I-O) tables from the viewpoint of users. This is a ‘subjective’ variant of the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method, already known in the literature. It is argued that it is more flexible than other methods, and it is shown that SWLS subsumes the first-order approximation of RAS as a special case. Flexibility is due to the facts that (a) users can attach differential ‘reliability’ weights to first (unbalanced) estimates, depending on the confidence they have in the different parts of their pre-balancing work, (b) differently from RAS, one is not bound to take any row or column total as exogenously given, and (c) additional constraints can be added to it. The article describes also how SWLS was utilised to estimate a yearly (1959–2000) series of constant-price I-O tables for the Italian economy.     

Corporate Default Prediction Model Averaging: A Normative Linear Pooling Approach

Focusing on credit risk modelling, this paper introduces a novel approach for ensemble modelling based on a normative linear pooling. Models are first classified as dominant and competitive, and the pooling is run using the competitive models only. Numerical experiments based on parametric (logit, Bayesian model averaging) and nonparametric (classification tree, random forest, bagging, boosting) model comparison shows that the proposed ensemble performs better than alternative approaches, in particular when different modelling cultures are mixed together (logit and classification tree). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模型平均预测理论与实证研究

文章在比较不同模型平均预测估计量性质的基础上,通过建立AR、货币数量论与菲利普斯模型对我国通货膨胀率进行组合预测,实证结果表明Granger和Ramanathan的方法在MSE和MAE方面表现最优,简单加权平均模型在MAPE方面表现最优,而MMA和JMA方法并没有表现出预期的优越性。     

变权重多目标进化算法研究

大多数现有的多目标进化算法每一个循环都要对种群中的部分或全部个体进行排序或比较,使得计算量很大。本文介绍了一种基于变权重线性加权的Pareto轨迹法WSTPEA---Weighted Sum Approachand Tracing Pareto Method),算法采用线性加权法对多目标优化问题加以改造,通过对权重加一个增量来得到邻近的非劣解,每执行一个循环步骤求得一个非劣解。通过权重变化次数控制算法循环的次数,从而使整个种群遍历Pareto曲线(面)面。文中给出了算法的流程图,并且对两个实验测试问题进行了计算,最后对结果进行了分析。