Endogenous business cycles and dynamic inefficiency

This paper explores how the occurrence of local indeterminacy and endogenous business cycles relates to dynamic inefficiency, as defined by Malinvaud (1953), Phelps (1965) and Cass (1972). We follow Reichlin (1986) and Grandmont (1993) by considering a two-period overlapping generations model of capital accumulation with labor–leisure choice into the first-period of an agent's life and consumption in both periods. We first show that local indeterminacy and Hopf bifurcation are necessarily associated with a capital–labor ratio that is, at steady state, larger than the Golden Rule level. Consequently, paths converging asymptotically towards the steady state are shown to be dynamically inefficient, as there always exists another trajectory that starts with the same initial conditions and produces more aggregate consumption at all future dates. More surprising, however, is our main result showing that stable orbits, generated around a dynamically inefficient steady state through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, may, in contrast, be dynamically efficient.     

Trends in Real Estate Research, 1988–2001: What's Hot and What's Not

This paper examines publications and citations for topic and technique trends in JREFE and REE during the period 1988–2001. Publication and citation patterns reveal real estate as a largely empirical field. The mix of topics and techniques published by the two journals as well as sources cited and garnering citations are converging over time. Within topic or technique categories, the most frequently cited papers or authors tend to garner citations that vary with the relative popularity of the category in the broader literature. Yet, the impacts of top contributors reflect significant contributions outside their most cited research in one specialized one topic area or technique.     

Decomposing profit change: Konüs,Bennet and Luenberger indicators

We introduce complementary decompositions of profit change that, relying on the duality between the profit function and the directional distance function, shed light on the different sources of profit growth including measures of technical efficiency, allocative efficiency and technological change. Our decompositions extend the literature on Konüs and Bennet quantity and price indicators to profit change. The first decomposition is ‘exact’ in the sense of Diewert, by completely exhausting the sources of profit change into profit inefficiency change (including technical and allocative inefficiency change), technological change, and output and input price change. The second decomposition equates the Bennet quantity indicator to a productivity measure represented by the Luenberger indicator plus allocative inefficiency change. We deem it ‘complete’ because in contrast to the existing literature, it retains the information on allocative inefficiency change while preventing the existence of residual terms capturing price variations, whose meaningful interpretation has not been addressed until now. Our proposed solution takes advantage of the flexibility of the directional distance function when choosing a suitable directional vector. All decompositions have the same structural form and therefore their components can be compared to each other vis-à-vis, providing alternative measures of equivalent sources of profit growth.     

建立现代产权制度,解决消费需求不足

产权制度经历了从古典产权制度到现代产权制度的演进.受古典产权制度的制约,我国劳动力市场所具有的两个特点决定了工资的市场定价必然将工资定位在低点,它导致了相当一部分就业人口长期的低收入,从而产生收入分配差距偏大和总消费需求不足.因此,必须建立现代产权制度,才能够解决收入分配差距偏大和总消费需求不足的问题.现代产权制度是构建和谐社会的经济基础.     

A test of the Investor's Daily stock ranking system

This paper examines the profitability of trading strategies derived from stock rankings published in Investor's Business Daily. The best system provides market-adjusted abnormal monthly returns of 1.81% from buying S&P 500 stocks, and a 3.18% abnormal return on an arbitrage portfolio. Stocks selected for trading have above average volatility, but a portion of abnormal return may be a reward for identifying stocks with short-run sustainable price momentum. Results seem indicative of market inefficiency, but the phenomena may be temporary since abnormal returns are lower during the second half of the data set.     

Value Relevance of Mandated Comprehensive Income Disclosures

This paper examines the association between acquisiton-related provision-taking behaviour and post-acquisition performance for a sample of UK firms that undertook large acquisitions between 1989 and 1995. We find evidence that provision-taking was associated with declining accounting and market-adjusted stock price performance over the three-year period following the fiscal year of the acquisition. This relationship exists after controlling for a variety of factors, including method of payment in the acquisition and post-acquisition cash flow performance. By implication, post-acquisition abnormal returns appear to have been predictable based on publicly available information about the magnitude of the provisions. These findings are consistent with the following scenario: The management of the high provisioners used the provisions to insulate accounting earnings from the effects of declining cash flows. The market belatedly reacted to these firms' declining fortunes when net income was no longer inflated by provision reversals.     

21世纪海上丝绸之路运输通道的海运效率评价——基于SBM模型和DEA窗口分析方法

建设完善21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线运输通道是实现互联互通的关键,而运输通道海运效率的高低直接影响沿线国家贸易的绩效。基于SBM模型和DEA窗口分析方法对21世纪海上丝绸之路五条主要运输通道(分别是中国—南太平洋、中国—东北亚、中国—东非—地中海、中国—波斯湾以及中国—东南亚)2010—2017年的海运效率进行实证研究发现,中国—南太平洋运输通道的海运效率最高,其次是中国—东北亚运输通道,中国—东非—地中海运输通道的海运效率最低;五条运输通道均存在产出不足与投入冗余问题,其中中国—东北亚运输通道港口基础设施建设投入过多,造成了一定程度的资源浪费,而中国—东非—地中海运输通道货物吞吐量产出严重不足;“一带一路”倡议提出后,中国—波斯湾和中国—东非—地中海运输通道海运效率有所提高,中国—东北亚和中国—东南亚运输通道海运效率趋于平缓,中国—南太平洋运输通道海运效率近年略有下降,但整体上仍然高于其他四条运输通道。而运输通道为避免资源浪费及效率低下等问题,一要优化港口资源配置,二要提高与全球航运网络的连通度,三要缩小同一运输通道沿线各国海运效率的差距。