The RAS Approach in Updating Input–Output Matrices: An Instrumental Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change

The main purposes of the paper are to reconsider the rationale of the RAS method, and to attempt to improve on its interpretation and usefulness. The substitution and fabrication factors in the RAS method are interpreted as statistical estimates obtained by the method of instrumental variables. This enables the computation of asymptotic standard errors for the factors and the relative precision of the predicted technical coefficients. Furthermore, an adjustment cost minimization model to describe how a sector determines its substitution and fabrication factors is presented. The solutions of the model provide another rationale for the RAS method, and the associated Lagrangian multipliers can be useful for assessing structural constraints and structural change.     

韩国企业对中国直接投资的实情分析和决定因素

文章通过对韩国企业对中国直接投资的实情分析,考察不同规模企业的特征,并依 据投资国的国内因素分析了对中国直接投资的决定因素。     

Socioeconomic variations in perceived barriers to recreation participation among would‐be participants

Abstract

The effects of fifteen barriers to participation were examined among people who expressed a desire for but were unable to participate in a new recreational activity. Work commitments, overcrowding of facilities, and lack of partners were the three main barriers. The effects of barriers were not perceived uniformly across the sample but varied between subgroups defined according to socioeconomic variables: the people most likely to be affected by barriers to participation included the poor, the elderly, and single parents. The extent to which recreation practitioners can and should respond to these kinds of research findings is discussed, and several ways in which the effects of barriers to participation might be modified or alleviated are evaluated.     

会计实验研究对额外变量的控制

实验研究是对相关会计行为进行研究的主要方法之一.通过对变量之间因果关系的揭示,能够充分说明会计行为、会计判断的内在规律.但在研究中,不仅存在着可由实验者控制的能够对被试反应产生影响的变量,还有一些不用于研究目的却也会对被试反应产生影响的变量,即为额外变量,需要对其进行消除或控制.可以认为,会计实验研究的成败与研究者对额外变量的控制效果密切相关.本文通过对会计实验研究中额外变量的不同控制方法进行分析和说明,使实验研究者可以明确如何在会计相关研究中对额外变量进行有效控制,进而有效提高实验的效度.     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

Productivity growth decomposition with FE-IV approach: Rethinking Thai commercial banks after the financial crisis

To cope with the Asian Financial Crisis, Thai commercial banks have gone through a reconstructing period. This study aims to decompose the Total Factor Productivity growth (TFP) for Thai commercial banking industry with an output distance function. With an unbalanced panel dataset, we used the Fixed Effect (FE) model with Instrumental Variables (IV) to estimate the TFP growth empirically. We found the technical inefficiency change and scale effects were the two major contributors to the recent growth, while the input price effect of the premises and equipment was the major preventer of the growth. Moreover, the Thai commercial banking industry produced in decreasing return to scale, and the input–output allocation was not at the profit maximization optimum under the exogenous prices.