Social mobility and inequality in urban China: understanding the role of intergenerational transmission of education

China’s rapid economic growth since the late 1980s has been accompanied by great economic and social transformations, which have resulted in a sharp increase in income inequality. This article contributes to the literature of social mobility in China by examining the impact of parental education on the education of their children. Using the 1990 and 2000 Chinese Population Censuses, we employ nonparametric estimation strategies to provide a systematic investigation of intergenerational transmission of education in urban China. We find evidence of increasing parents–children educational correlations. Our results raise concerns regarding economic inequality in urban China as high intergenerational persistence of education is expected to be a barrier to equal opportunities in children’s education attainments and their future labour market outcomes.     

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from Eight Economies in Transition

Abstract

We examine in this paper the importance of banks’ behavior in the transmission of the monetary policy to the real economy. Monthly data from eight economies in transition that recently became members of the European Union and the techniques of cointegration and Error Correction models are used, in order to investigate the relationship between intermediation margin spread (IMS, official lending rate minus deposit rate) and industrial production. Given the low development of corporate bond market and the dependence of non-financial agents on banking credits, we find that in many countries the IMS is an important leading indicator of industrial production. However, in countries characterized by credit access constraints (Estonia and Latvia) evidence for the traditional money channel is found. Evidence for both money and credit channels is found in Poland and Hungary. These results imply that a common monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank may be transmitted in different ways across the new members of the enlarged European Union with different effects on real output in each country.     

International Spillovers of Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from the G7

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960Q1 – 2010Q4, using a multivariate GARCH model and volatility impulse response functions (VIRFs) to identify the source, magnitude and the duration of volatility spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility spillovers and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the other remaining countries. An additional finding is that the duration of output growth volatility spillovers has increased over time from some seven quarters in the 1970s to some ten quarters during the recent crisis, which is likely to be due to the increased integration of goods and financial markets.     

课堂传播中学生主体对知识信息的需求特征及其把握

课堂传播活动中学生对知识信息的需要系统,与外在环境和社会发展处于相互作用之中,既是动态的,也是分层的;其主导需要对社会具有提醒作用,并在其群体内部引领走向;其易于受到具有流行性特征的社会文化心理的＂干扰＂,必须予以引导和纠偏。     

Consumption Inequality in China: Theory and Evidence from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

We investigate consumption inequality in China both theoretically by constructing a theoretical model that delineates the transmission channels by which income shocks affect consumption and empirically through an Unequally Spaced Dynamic Panel Data model estimation. We find that China is experiencing consumption inequality with the full partial insurance of consumption against both permanent and transitory income shocks, although the impact of both types of shock are larger than the case of the United States. The results are due to precautionary savings motives of the Chinese. We further document how income becomes more dispersed in China and show how the family background of a child affects his outcome to a large extent. Policy implications based on our findings are proposed.     

产业链效应与产业链传导机制研究

产业作为国民经济重要组成部分,对经济增长起着决定性的作用。而国民经济中的各产业又是相互影响、相互作用的,构成了错综复杂的产业链条和网络,覆盖着整个国民经济,形成了独特的国民经济结构。从分析产业链的形态、构成和传导机制着手,分析国民经济各产业对经济增长的影响,从而研究保持经济稳定增长的产业政策和宏观经济政策。     

Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the strategic substitutes effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of no-arbitrage across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a market clearing condition.     

论词的形式美对词传播的影响

历经几千年的沧桑,古典诗词依旧传播广远,远远超过新诗。探究其长盛不衰的原因,当然是多种多样的。一直以来,其所具有的一整套公共意象被认为是主要原因。但除开公共意象,古典诗词本身所具有的一整套严格的音韵格律形式也是致使其广为流传的重要原因之一,而且从某种意义上而言比公共意象的作用还要明显。以古典诗词中的词为例,试图单纯从形式的角度出发,并结合一些传播学的相关理论,分析词体形式对词体传播的影响。     

我国货币政策传导机制的信贷渠道分析

受利率管制、证券市场不完善和社会保障体系的初步建立等因素的影响,我国信贷渠道不畅通。应加快利率市场化、加速商业银行股份制改革步伐,构建适应中小企业信贷融资的金融体系,以疏通信贷渠道。     

货币政策的国际溢出效应与国际协调研究进展

随着世界各国经济活动关联程度的不断增强,一国货币政策变动对其他国家经济社会发展的影响越来越显著,国家间的货币政策协调也愈加重要。在此背景下,有关货币政策国际溢出效应的研究日益丰富,货币政策的国际协调也逐渐受到关注。本文对货币政策国际溢出效应及国际协调领域的现有文献进行回顾和展望。从货币政策国际溢出效应研究的发展历程来看,1990年以前相关研究主要基于开放条件下的宏观经济模型及博弈论等进行理论探讨,1990年至2000年多数研究开始借助动态随机一般均衡模型和经济计量模型探究货币政策国际溢出效应的传导机制和渠道,2000年以后越来越多的研究将理论应用于对现实经济问题的解释,其中以探讨中心国家货币政策的国际溢出效应为主。从货币政策国际溢出效应的研究方法来看,相关研究大多通过控制货币政策的内生变化来获取货币政策的外生冲击,主流研究方法也逐渐从基于MFD模型的纯理论分析转向基于VAR系列模型的实证分析和具有一致性框架的DSGE模型分析。从货币政策国际溢出效应的传导渠道来看,早期文献大多认为汇率和贸易是主要渠道,随着全球经济金融一体化的推进,金融渠道的作用日益凸显,且比汇率渠道和贸易渠道传导更加迅速、后果更为严重,并逐渐成为近些年研究的重点。由于货币政策的国际协调在实践中存在一定难度以及经济下行压力较大下的货币政策调整空间较小,目前关于货币政策国际协调的研究相对较少,而且相关研究的观点并不统一。大部分学者认为随着世界经济联动趋势的不断增强,货币政策国际协调是必然趋势并有利于各国经济发展,而部分学者认为政策协调需要花费大量的时间和政治成本,货币政策的国际协调应慎重。现有研究已经取得丰硕成果,但仍需进一步深化和拓展：一是大多数文献仅考察中心国家货币政策对外围国家（新兴经济体）的单向溢出效应,有必要进一步考察货币政策的双向国际溢出效应;二是关于金融渠道的研究还不够完善,尤其是对货币政策不确定性冲击、全球金融风险传递等的研究较少,相关研究需要深化;三是关于货币政策国际协调的研究较少且观点不统一,尤其是对政策协调的有效路径缺乏系统研究,相关研究有待加强。中国学者应加强该领域的研究,尤其要在中国货币政策的国际溢出效应及其传导渠道、应对国外货币政策溢出效应的有效政策工具、促进货币政策的国际协调等方面取得突破。