会计脆弱性原因剖析及对策选择

会计脆弱性借用了金融脆弱性概念,由于信息不对称和盈余管理的客观存在、稳健性原则和应计制原则等的运用,导致会计信息具有极大的脆弱性。本文对造成会计脆弱性的原因进行了剖析,并提出了一些对策建议。     

Estimating Discrete Joint Probability Distributions for Demographic Characteristics at the Store Level Given Store Level Marginal Distributions and a City-Wide Joint Distribution

This paper provides a solution to the problem of estimating a joint distribution using the associated marginal distributions and a related joint distribution. The particular application we have in mind is estimating joint distributions of demographic characteristics corresponding to market areas for individual retail stores. Marginal distributions are generally available at the census tract level, but joint distributions are only available for Metropolitan Statistical Areas which are generally much larger than the market for a single retail store. Joint distributions over demographics are an important input into mixed logit demand models for aggregate data. Market shares that vary systematically with demographics are essential for relieving the restrictions imposed by the Independence from Irrelevant Alternative property of the logit model.We approach this problem by formulating a parametric function that incorporates both the city-wide joint distributional information and marginal information specific to the retail stores market area. To estimate the function, we form moment conditions equating the moments of the parametric function to observed data, and we input these into a GMM objective. In one of our illustrations we use four marginal demographic distributions from each of eight stores in Dominicks Finer Foods data archive to estimate a four dimensional joint distribution for each store. Our results show that our GMM approach produces estimated joint distributions that differ substantially from the product of marginal distributions and emit marginals that closely match the observed marginal distributions. Mixed logit demand estimates are also presented which show the estimates to be sensitive to the formulation of the demographics distribution.The views expressed are not purported to reflect those of the United States Department of Justice     

论中小企业信用缺失对融资的影响

良好的信用是企业获取资金的前提,中小企业融资困难的根本原因是信用缺失。通过对中小企业信用缺失对融资影响的分折,探讨构建中小企业信用的具体对策。     

跨国公司对华投资独资化影响与对策探析

近年来,跨国公司在华直接投资数量不断增多,进入模式已由当初的合资、合作转为独资。独资化趋势不是偶然现象,主要是由跨国公司的全球发展战略和避免技术外溢以及在华投资环境的改善引起。跨国公司独资化对中国经济既有积极影响,又有消极影响,需要区别对待,促进积极影响的发挥,最大限度降低消极影响。     

美军分布式通用地面站系统的发展现状与趋势

作为美军情报接收、处理和分发的主要系统,近年来,分布式通用地面站系统（DCGS）在全球信息栅格(GIG)、云技术、大数据等新兴信息技术推动下取得了显著建设成果。简要介绍了美军各军种DCGS系统的项目进展,重点总结了空军DCGS-AF系统和陆军DCGS-A系统的发展现状及技术特性,包括DCGS-AF Block 10.2和DCGS-A 3.0 Griffin软件基线的架构和能力等,结合DCGS系统在伊拉克和阿富汗战场的作战应用分析了系统的未来发展趋势,以期为相关人员提供参考。     

Economic evaluation of BST-CarGel as an adjunct to microfracture vs microfracture alone in knee cartilage surgery

Objectives:

Knee cartilage damage is a common cause of referral for orthopedic surgery. Treatment aims to reduce pain and symptoms by repairing cartilage. Microfracture, the current standard of care, yields good short-term clinical outcomes; however, treatment might fail after 2–3 years. A Chitosan-Beta glycerolphosphate-based medical device (BST-CarGel) is used as an adjunct to microfracture and demonstrates improvements in quantity and quality of repaired tissue, potentially reducing the risk of treatment failure. This study aimed to establish the economic value of BST-CarGel vs microfracture alone in knee cartilage repair from the societal perspective, using Germany as the reference market.

Methods:

A decision tree with a 20-year time-horizon was constructed, in which undesirable clinical events were inferred following initial surgery. These events consisted of pain management, surgery, and total knee replacement. Clinical outcomes were taken from the pivotal clinical trial, supplemented by other literature. Data and assumptions were validated by a Delphi panel. All relevant resource use and costs for procedures and events were considered.

Results:

In a group of patients with all lesion sizes, the model inferred that BST-CarGel yields a positive return on investment at year 4 (with 20-year cumulative cost savings of €6448). Reducing the incremental risk of treatment failure gap between the device and microfracture by 25–50% does not alter this conclusion. Cost savings are greatest for patients with large lesions; results for patients with small lesions are more modest.

Limitations:

Clinical evidence for microfracture and other interventions varies in quality. Comparative long-term data are lacking. The comparison is limited to microfracture and looks only at costs without considering quality-of-life.

Conclusion:

BST-CarGel potentially represents a cost-saving alternative for patients with knee cartilage injury by reducing the risk of clinical events through regeneration of chondral tissue with hyaline characteristics. Since the burden of this condition is high, both to the patient and society, an effective and economically viable alternative is of importance.     

关注关联方利益输送的新动向

上市公司关联方交易及其利益输送一直是市场关注的热点问题,中国上市公司关联方之间的交易及其利益输送十分普遍,对其的公正评价至为困难,成为困扰中国证券市场的一个难题。在中国监管当局颁发了一系列行政法规、强化监管的今天,中国上市公司及其关联方的关联交易及其利益输送呈现出一些以前所没有的、新的特征。     

基于联合概率加权的高分辨雷达目标点迹处理

针对高分辨雷达在跟踪扩展目标时出现多散射点的问题,提出了一种基于联合概率加权的雷达目标点迹处理方法。首先,对信号检测出的多散射点构建其残差变量,根据判别准则进行目标点迹配对处理,剔除异常散射点;然后,同时考虑散射点位置和回波幅度信息,计算联合概率的权值,目标多散射点经概率加权融合后估计得到散射中心。仿真分析表明,该方法在高分辨雷达扩展目标点迹处理中能有效抑制杂波的干扰,目标点迹精度在距离、方位和俯仰上分别提高了20.63%、47.51%和41.03%,同时具有很好的可靠性,满足工程应用的需求。     

产业发展视角下联合基金成果贯通效果评价分析——以第二期促进海峡两岸科技合作联合基金为例

联合基金科技成果贯通对于实现成果产业化、达成区域经济发展目标有着良好的促进作用。探索联合基金与区域产业的融合情况,对提升联合基金成果贯通水平、畅通贯通渠道产生积极影响。通过对第二期促进海峡两岸科技合作联合基金概况以及其与区域产业发展融合情况进行分析,发现海峡联合基金与区域产业规划发展和产业需求方面的高度融合,提出应加大联合基金全过程管理过程中与产业发展的融合匹配,同时应扩大联合基金立项领域范围、强化应用领域细分、提高产业应用在基金成果评估中的比重等建议。     

联保融资的有效边界：威海钢贸企业集体违约案例

联保融资模式因为具有分散单个企业信用风险、借助其他企业信用资源绕开抵押物缺乏障碍、实现有效融资的特点,近几年被融资主体广泛采用。但该模式存在的最大缺点是其有效性受经济环境影响较大,即联保融资模式的有效性存在以行业下行信号为标志的边界。本文通过对威海某钢贸城内经营商户采用联保模式融资、因行业景气程度下降引发集体违约的案例进行描述,揭示联保融资模式信用风险分散功能在突破有效边界时从有效变为无效的根本原因,提出引入第三方担保、确保担保机构业务多元化可以在一定程度上防范联保融资模式的系统性风险。