工业工程(IE)在大型医院的应用

观察了病人在大型医院就医的现状。运用工业工程(IE)的“5W1H”提问技术分析了其中存在的问题,主要表现在：科室和窗口布置紊乱、看病程序繁杂、无效时间多等。在此基础上,运用IE的取消、合并、重排、简化(ECRS)四大原则对医院的现状进行了改进,简化了看病程序。大大缩短了看病时间。提高了医院的服务效率。     

Multivariate Prediction with Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis: Theory

We propose the notion of multivariate predictability as a measure of goodness-of-fit in data reduction techniques which are useful for visualizing and screening data. For quantitative variables this leads to the usual sums-of-squares and variance accounted for criteria. For categorical variables we show how to predict the category-levels of all variables associated with every point (case). The proportion of predictions which agree with the true categories gives the measure of fit. The ideas are very general; as an illustration we use nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) in association with ordered categorical variables. A detailed example using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) will be given in Blasius and Gower (quality and quantity, 39, to appear). It will be shown that the predictability criterion suggests that the fits are rather better than is indicated by “percentage of variance accounted for”.This article was written while John Gower was a visiting professor at the ZA-Eurolab, at the Zentralarchiv für Empirische Sozialforschung, University of Cologne, Germany. The ZA is a Large Scale Facility funded by the Training and Mobility of Researchers program of the European Union.     

Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the symmetric case

Summary. Suppose a large economy with individual risk is modeled by a continuum of pairwise exchangeable random variables (i.i.d., in particular). Then the relevant stochastic process is jointly measurable only in degenerate cases. Yet in Monte Carlo simulation, the average of a large finite draw of the random variables converges almost surely. Several necessary and sufficient conditions for such “Monte Carlo convergence” are given. Also, conditioned on the associated Monte Carlo -algebra, which represents macroeconomic risk, individual agents' random shocks are independent. Furthermore, a converse to one version of the classical law of large numbers is proved. Received: October 29, 2001; revised version: April 24, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Part of this work was done when Yeneng Sun was visiting SITE at Stanford University in July 2001. An early version of some results was included in a presentation to Tom Sargent's macro workshop at Stanford. We are grateful to him and Felix Kübler in particular for their comments. And also to Marcos Lisboa for several discussions with Peter Hammond, during which the basic idea of the paper began to take shape. Correspondence to: P.J. Hammond     

Should governments fund basic science? Evidence from a willingness-to-pay experiment in five universities

ABSTRACT

Tax-payers are usually the ultimate funders of large-scale research infrastructures (RIs), but the expected discoveries of such projects often do not have any known use-value. By interviewing 1,022 undergraduates, we study the drivers of preferences for paying for basic research, which are still little known. We focus on the LHC at CERN, where the Higgs boson was discovered. Income, awareness, and positive attitudes towards science drive a positive willingness-to-pay for science. Students in social sciences and the humanities are willing to contribute to scientific curricula at least as much as their peers. Findings offer support to government funding of basic research as a public good.     

Functional laws of the iterated logarithm for small increments of empirical processes

Let F , denote the uniform empirical distribution based on the first n ≥ 1 observations from an i.i.d. sequence of uniform (0, 1) random variables. We describe the almost sure limiting behavior of the sets of increment functions {F_n(t + h_n.) - F_n(t): 0 ≤ t ≤ 1 - h_n}, when {h_n: n ≥ 1) is a nonincreasing sequence of constants such that nh_n /log n ← 0.     

利润操纵、股权再融资与资本配置效率研究

本文研究了资本市场参与者的行为与利润操纵之间的关系,并分析了对资本配置效率的影响效应。大股东通过操纵报告盈余来改变会计盈余的时间分布和误导投资者,从而攫取更多的隐性收益,造成资本市场配置效率的降低。研究结果表明:(1)大股东通过利润操纵在股权再融资过程中可以获得中小股东无法得到的隐性收益;(2)大股东的收益随着利润操纵程度的增加而提升,中小股东的财富随着利润操纵程度的增加而降低;(3)利润操纵程度的增加将降低上市公司的资本配置效率和企业价值。     

基于AHP法的地铁施工区域周围交通仿真及组织

目前中国各城市在大力开展地铁建设,临时占用普通道路情况普遍,大型车辆的频繁进出极大地降低了道路交通通行水平,增加了出行风险。为了评价地铁施工路段和区域内的普通居民出行质量,考虑到施工区域道路标线及信号相位改变的情况,通过调查问卷及层次分析法分析出对安全影响较大的因素,提出合理交通组织方案,并利用微观交通仿真软件VISSIM对某一特定区域进行综合评价。结果表明,施工区域安全性得到提高,具有一定的可推广性和实用性。     

WTO下中国大型纺织企业的创新探析

相对于国内外一些强势企业来讲,中国大型纺织企业存在着科研开发投入相对较低、产品结构不能完全适应国内外市场的需求、设计创新能力不足、没有完全建立起适应市场经济的现代企业制度等创新问题。面对WTO下的一系列创新压力,大型纺织企业应强化以创新为基本内容的战略转型,同时从积极寻求联合发展之路、采用内部网技术、强化微观基础建设等方面努力。     

多维偏好视角下特大型项目极端争议决策的演化博弈研究

特大型项目关联主体在决策过程中受到多种行为偏好集合影响。鉴于此,在高质量发展背景下,基于行为博弈基本逻辑,运用演化博弈方法构建政府方、项目建设方及社会民众方的偏好集合极端争议决策演化博弈模型,解析项目决策主体复杂心理偏好、多维利益构成与行为演进变化。结果显示：政府方的奖惩力度越大,均衡越稳定;项目建设方的公平偏好越高,均衡越容易达到平衡;博弈三方的损失规避偏好越低,越容易达到最优均衡解。