EXPORT‐LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: FURTHER ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

This paper examines the export‐led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five South Asian countries through cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. Strong support for a long‐run relationship among exports, imports, and real output for all the countries except Sri Lanka were found. Feedback effects between exports and GDP for Bangladesh and Nepal and unidirectional causality from exports to output in the case of Pakistan were found. No causality between these variables was found for Sri Lanka and India, although for India GDP and exports did induce imports. A feedback effect between imports and GDP was also documented for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as unidirectional causality from imports to output growth for Sri Lanka. These and other findings are discussed from the standpoint of the export‐led growth hypothesis.     

Blowing the Whistle on Less Serious Forms of Fraud: A Study of Executives and Managers

A whistleblowing survey was completed by 725 executives and managers. A variety of individual, organizational, and moral perception variables were examined and hypotheses developed with respect to the likelihood of their blowing the whistle on less serious fraud. Major determinants of blowing the whistle on less serious fraud were identified by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis. Results are presented and recommendations made for practitioners and future research.     

Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons

This study attempts to determine the causal relationship between budget and current account deficits as well as the direction of such causality. A selected sample of some developed and developing countries with annual time series data is used and cointegration techniques are applied to bring evidence regarding this important issue. Our results do not support any long-run relationship between the two deficits for developed countries while the data for developing countries do not reject such a relationship. However, our results suggest a causal relationship between the two deficits for most of the sample countries. First version received: November 1996/final version received: September 1998     

经济转轨国家的再就业政策及其启示

随着经济体制与经济增长方式的转变 ,我国经济中就业问题的深层次矛盾日益突出。经济转轨国家的再就业政策与实践经验 ,对我们解决失业问题具有重要启示。在我国 ,必须建立和完善社会保障体制 ;规范职业教育 ,发展职业培训 ,提高职业介绍的数量和质量 ;在政府与社会的扶持下 ,鼓励失业人员自谋职业。     

环中国圈国家战略合作的重新审视——来自于“经济圈域论”的分析框架

运用"经济圈域论"对环中国圈国家战略合作进行重新审视,可提出合作倾向和利益的帕累托改进路径以及成员间合理的收益差距的分析框架,从而进一步地提出经济圈域的运作机制.结论则显示了对于目前亚太地区的区域合作,"经济圈域论"具有较强的解释力.     

Social protection for people with disabilities in Africa and Asia: a review of programmes for low- and middle-income countries

Despite a greater need for social protection among people with disabilities, there is limited evidence of their inclusion into social protection programmes in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents the findings from a review of regional and global data sources for Asia-Pacific and Africa to identify social protection programmes that aim to include people with disabilities. It finds a substantial number of programmes in both regions, although there is considerable variation in the quantity and types of programmes within and between regions and countries, as well as between low- and middle-income countries. Further, the quality of data is not sufficient to assess the degree to which these programmes are genuinely inclusive of people with disabilities. As such, it highlights important limitations in the way data is currently being collected that require further attention in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and the commitment to ‘Leave No-one Behind’     

The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.     

发达国家社会保障的城乡差别演变与启示

发达国家城乡社会保障发展的历史表明,城乡社会保障的一体化和平等化是一种必然趋势,而我国当前"二元"的社会保障模式决定了城市社会保障和农村社会保障之间存在较大的差异。因此,建立农村社会保障体系,缩小城乡社会保障差距,实现完全意义上的城乡社会保障体系一体化是我国社会保障制度改革的根本目标。     

我国欠发达地区的产业集群培育研究

产业集群是欠发达地区加快工业化进程、实现跨越式发展的一条新路,是推动区域经济发展的一个重要动力。近几年,产业集群在欠发达地区得到了迅速发展,但总体还处于初始阶段。如何推进产业集群转型升级,不断增强产业集群竞争力,是摆在欠发达地区面前的战略问题和现实课题。     

发达国家农业税收政策及其对我国的启示

农业作为一个相对弱势产业,客观上需要政府的财政保护和支持。世界各国都非常重视对农业的保护和扶持,在所得税、销售税等方面采取种种优惠措施促进农业的发展,取得了很好的政策激励效果。而我国支持农业发展的税收机制尚不健全,一定程度上抑制了税收对农业的政策激励效应。因此,需要借鉴发达国家发展农业的成功经验,建立与完善有利于我国农业发展的税收政策体系,以促进我国基础产业的健康发展。