MC's for MCMC'ists

We develop a minimum amount of theory of Markov chains at as low a level of abstraction as possible in order to prove two fundamental probability laws for standard Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms:
1. The law of large numbers explains why the algorithm works: it states that the empirical means calculated from the samples converge towards their "true" expected values, viz. expectations with respect to the invariant distribution of the associated Markov chain (=the target distribution of the simulation).
2. The central limit theorem expresses the deviations of the empirical means from their expected values in terms of asymptotically normally distributed random variables. We also present a formula and an estimator for the associated variance.     

移动式皮带在双岭电站施工中的应用

应用皮带系统浇筑混凝土,极大的缓解了门机的工作压力,为仓面准备工作提供了充分的机械保证,提高了混凝土浇筑速度。移动式皮带在双岭汛前施工中的应用,彻底改变了施工单位在工期上被动局面,为年底厂房封顶的实现奠定了坚实的基础。     

On Targeting Frameworks And Optimal Monetary Policy

We show that speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently outperforms flexible inflation targeting and flexible price level targeting in empirical medium‐scale DSGE models under discretionary policymaking. In contrast to small‐scale New Keynesian models, this welfare ranking of the targeting frameworks is not overturned when inflation dynamics are mostly backward‐looking. Importantly, the performance of the speed limit policy shows less sensitivity to its parameterization than other frameworks that target the inflation rate or the price level.     

关于改进个人银行账户分类管理问题的分析

随着互联网和移动通讯技术的发展,支付领域风险范围、扩散速度、溢出效应程几何级数增长.为有效防范网络新型违法犯罪,保护人民群众财产安全和合法权益,中国人民银行相继发布了多项制度条例,全面推进个人账户分类管理.本文结合对商业银行账户分类管理专项调查结果,分析分类管理中存在的问题及原因,在此基础上,提出进一步改进个人银行账户...     

经济结构战略性调整刍议

股票期权制是一种长期有效的新型激励机制。本文深入探讨了股票期权制的涵义、激励作用 ,进一步分析了其在我国实践过程中存在的问题 ,进而指出了应对策略。