液液萃取-高效液相色谱法测定粮食中黄曲霉毒素的研究

采用液液萃取净化的前处理方法,建立了用甲醇-乙腈-水(40∶5∶55体积比)三元流动相体系分离黄曲霉毒素(G2、G1、B2、B1),柱后碘衍生、高效液相色谱荧光检测器测定粮食中黄曲霉毒素的新方法。使用该方法可在24 min内完成测定,4种黄曲霉毒素的线性关系r值均大于0.9995。样品在不同水平的加标回收试验中,回收率为80.3%~97.0%,相对标准偏差2.1%～4.0%,黄曲霉毒素G2、G1、B2、B1的检出限均小于0.40μg/kg。该方法具有样品前处理简单、操作稳定、试剂消耗少、成本低、准确且重复性好等优点,适用于粮食中黄曲霉毒素的定性定量分析。     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

中国碳减排政策的模拟分析——基于中国能源CGE模型的研究

通过构建中国能源CGE模型,在模型中引入碳税和碳排放变量,细化出能源部门,并将煤炭、石油和天然气三种主要能源作为生产要素,设定节能减排基准情景,针对碳减排、碳税和能源结构调整这三个不同的能源政策对经济发展以及碳排放的冲击效果进行了模拟分析.模拟结果表明,单一的能源政策总有不足之处,要么减排效果欠佳,要么严重制约经济发展,因此国家应该将减排政策系统化,构造一个适应现实需要的低碳经济政策体系.     

Nudging the jetset to offset: voluntary carbon offsetting and the limits to nudging

Abstract

“Nudge”-style interventions have often been successful in terms of changing behaviour, particularly for behaviours which are pro-self. Less research has been conducted into encouraging solely pro-social behaviours with nudges. This article examines the application of nudges to promote one pro-social behaviour: voluntary carbon offsetting for air travel. Testing nudges through randomised controlled trials and evaluating them using focus groups, nudges were found to be ineffective in promoting offsetting. Two explanations are proposed, addressing specific design problems of the nudges tested, which can in theory be overcome, and then more substantive barriers, which cannot. This article presents empirical evidence that nudges are unlikely to be effective when the target behaviour is not perceived as common, is not visible and has negative connotations, e.g. as carbon offsetting is often associated with other add-on extras for flights. Proposing a typology of automatic/reflexive systems of thinking, and pro-self/-social target behaviours, the article offers a conceptual contribution regarding the limits of effective nudging. Identifying behaviours beyond these limits means that in such cases, there is a need for industry-level “budges” – or “behavioural economic-informed regulation,” instead of individualised nudges. In regard to the expanding and carbon-intensive aviation industry, it is argued that such a need is particularly acute.     

Does climate change matter to the travel trade?

This study evaluated the awareness of, attitudes toward and opinions about the ability of travel agencies in Hong Kong to help address tourism's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. The retail travel agent sector is a major player in the tourism distribution system, accounting for about 25% of travel activity, and is the primary distributor of package tours. In-depth interviews were conducted with senior managers and owners/operators of a sample of travel agencies in Hong Kong, followed by a survey of 485 front line staff. The study revealed senior managers adopted a range of neutralisation techniques to abrogate themselves from any personal or corporate responsibility in this issue. Front line staff were largely unaware and ill-informed, and mainly see their role as simply pushing products. Cluster analysis revealed five groups with diverse views: Cluster 1, the “Deeply concerned” group (11%); Cluster 2, the “Deep knowledge” group (6%); Cluster 3, the “Moderate knowledge and awareness” group (18%); Cluster 4, the “Concerned but unaware” group (31%); and Cluster 5, the “Neither concerned nor aware” group (34%). The combination of lack of leadership among managers and ignorance among front line staff means that neither feels responsible for, nor able to, address this issue.     

Decision criteria for selecting air source heat pump technology in UK low carbon housing

The use of low or zero carbon technologies has been encouraged in the UK, one of which is air source heat pump (ASHP). However, the current ASHP uptake in UK housing is low, far behind that in Europe and America. This paper aims to contribute to knowledge of utilising ASHP by examining the decision criteria for selecting ASHP and exploring underlying considerations of UK housebuilders. The research was carried out through a case study with a housebuilder and seven nation-wide suppliers, engaging four new-build projects. A wide range of decision criteria were identified. Despite the dominance of cost considerations, non-cost factors also imposed significant commercial implications on the housebuilder’s technology selection. For achieving more effective ASHP selection, a structured approach is suggested to manage the decision criteria and appreciate the stakeholders’ roles and relationships regarding technology uptake. Improved practice should enable a more informed technology decision culture in UK housing.     

基于投入产出分析的旅游碳排放核算——以山东省为例

基于投入产出模型并从终端消费角度核算了2007年山东省旅游碳排放。结果表明：以隐含碳指标衡量,2007年山东省旅游碳排放总量为7.88MtC,其中国内旅游碳排放占93.07%,入境旅游碳排放占6.93%;以单位消费碳排放指标衡量并与最终使用相比较,在山东的旅游消费属于低碳消费;以人均碳排放指标衡量,入境旅游碳排放远高于国内旅游碳排放,同时国内旅游与入境旅游碳排放的差异也反映在碳源构成方面。由此建议山东省发展低碳旅游时关注入境旅游低碳产品的开发,以及在入境旅游碳减排中侧重建设低碳旅游交通,在国内旅游碳减排中提倡使用清洁的热力与电力。     

北京碳排放与经济增长间关系的实证研究——基于EKC和STIRPAT模型

利用1981—2010年北京经济增长和碳排放的数据,验证了两者间EKC的存在性。运用碳生率和脱钩指数分析了经济增长与碳排放的短期静态关系和长期动态关系,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了北京碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:北京经济增长与碳排放之间存在倒U型关系,拐点为人均GDP为34423元;研究期间北京碳生产率呈不断上升趋势,年均增长率为6.1%;在1981—2010年期间的绝大部分年份,北京处于弱脱钩状态,脱钩指数与其经济发展阶段比较吻合;经济发展水平对北京碳排放的影响最显著,其次是能源利用效率,能源消费结构的影响较小。     

我国中部六省碳排放量影响因素分解分析

估算了1995—2009年期间我国中部六省的碳排放总量、人均碳排放量,从产业、能源消费结构、城乡消费结构的角度,对碳排放结构进行了分析。利用LMDI分解方法将碳排放量的影响因素分解为经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构以及碳排放系数,分析其具体影响,并进行省际比较。结果表明:1995—2009年期间中部六省的碳排放总量和人均碳排放量均呈增长趋势,且各省的差距较大;从产业结构和能源结构的碳排放情况看,各省的碳排放均来自第二产业和燃煤;经济规模的扩张是碳排放量增加的最主要因素,能源结构变化和碳排放系数变化对碳排放量变化的抑制作用不明显。     

山西省应对气候变化的对策研究

气候变化问题是当今21世纪对人类最大的考验。山西省要紧紧抓住国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区的政策机遇,提升应对气候变化的综合竞争力。本文首先阐述了世界各国在应对气候变化方面所做的实践及中国的态度和努力,然后分析了全球气候变化对山西带来的影响和挑战,提出了山西省应对气候变化的主要任务,在此基础上,围绕“十二五”期间,山西省单位 GDP 能耗降低16%,单位 GDP 二氧化碳排放降低17%的减排目标,从健全管理体系,加强组织领导;完善法规政策,强化制度保障;加强监督考核,落实发展目标;创新科技体系,提高研发能力;建立应对体系,提高民众意识;扩展对外合作,发展山西经济等六个方面提出了应对气候变化的对策建议。