“中国人口性别比”:我们知道什么,还应该知道什么

结合文献梳理,提出了人口性别比研究中存在的若干问题,并运用相关数据进行检验。我国出生人口性别比数据中既存在女性的漏报瞒报,也存在男性的漏报瞒报;1949年以来中国总体人口性别比与出生人口性别比的关系不对应;婚姻挤压由于存在连续性,靠扩大婚龄差无法缓解;男孩偏好是个文化观念问题,更是个社会结构与制度问题;当前独生子女政策正面临考验;人口调查与数据分析中还存在值得认真面对的技术问题。     

Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications

This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations, network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications.The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved.     

效率体现式技术进步对经济增长的贡献分析

要素生产率提升是技术进步的效用结果和完整体现。本文引入效率体现式技术进步概念,以资本生产率与劳动生产率的综合指数来体现总体技术进步水平,构建经济增长中资本规模、劳动力规模和总体技术进步三因素贡献的分解模型,并利用中国1980-2010年的时间序列数据,对期间的技术进步贡献及其结构进行了实证分析。本文研究结果表明,经济增长的动力主要源于资本规模增长,劳动力投入规模贡献不大,技术进步贡献不小。技术进步贡献主要源于生产技术质量和生产技术效率,产业间劳动力构成和其他管理技术进步贡献微小。     

节能环保产业科技支撑体系研究--论山西省生态文明建设的保障措施

十八大报告和新党章将生态文明建设与经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设并列,还放在了突出地位、摆在中国特色社会主义事业总体布局的高度上,事关我党执政的可持续性.山西省做为一个能源与重化工省份,因经济偏重,造成了一些环境污染、生态欠账的问题,“十二五”期间,“高能耗、高排放”给经济增长带来的污染压力还将持续增加;为了保障山西省生态文明建设落到实处、解决过去经济发展中所造成了一些环境污染、生态欠账的问题,实现绿色发展、可持续发展,必须实施创新驱动发展战略.因此,山西省要建立生态文明建设中节能环保科技的支撑体系,全面提升山西省节能环保产业的发展水平和速度,建成美丽山西.     

信息技术与国家审计质量——基于违规金额和地区生产总值的视角

基于信息技术在审计领域的不断应用和"科技强审""审计全覆盖"的政策驱动背景,探讨信息技术和国家审计质量之间的关系。研究发现,社会信息化环境提高给国家审计质量带来了负面影响,而国家审计机关选择加大信息化投入,开展信息化建设、组织审计人员参加信息技术培训的应对策略,能显著改善社会信息化环境对审计质量带来的冲击,提高国家审计质量。当前信息技术已进入大数据时代,研究结论对国家审计机关持续开展信息化建设和加强信息技术培训提供启示;审计人员更应该提高信息化审计分析技能,提升审计效率,保证审计质量,使得信息技术更好地为国家审计工作服务。     

The changing pattern of industrial technology linkage structure of Korea: Did the ICT industry play a role in the 1980s and 1990s?

The notion of the knowledge-based economy highlights the strategic importance of inter-industrial knowledge flows. Among others, the crucial role of information and communications technology (ICT) industry is emphasized. The pattern whereby technological knowledge is created, accumulated and disseminated through the interactive learning among industries can be portrayed as a network. Based on the network theory, this empirical study analyses, from the dynamic perspective, inter-industrial technological knowledge structure of Korean industries during the reference period of early 1980s to mid-1990s. Overall, the density of the network increased over time, implying that the knowledge network has expanded and intensified. The role of the ICT industry in the global network has also increased but needs to be further strengthened, especially informatization of non-ICT industries by the outflow of ICT industrial knowledge in the future. The findings in turn render some important policy implications that should be addressed in developing technology policy.     

Niche Entry as a Route to Mainstream Innovation: Learning from the Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell in Stationary Power

The paper charts the efforts to establish a successful niche position for the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) in stationary power generation, as a precursor to wider technological system and regime change. Market entry depends on matching price/performance characteristics to a niche, and improving performance through increasing returns, the most important and immediate of which are ‘learning effects’. The paper identifies five types of learning effect: (i) migrating the technology to other niches and into the mainstream; (ii) opening the way for other technologies that may have greater scope for migration; (iii) transferring learning within the pioneering company to other technologies or products; (iv) transferring experience to others in the industry; and (v) enabling users to learn. Although PAFC may be perceived as a failure in some respects, a wider perspective suggests it has made a positive and useful contribution to learning.     

我国互联网金融发展模式与对策建议

我国互联网技术发展迅猛,现代化信息科学技术渗透生活方方面面,其对金融领域的影响尤为突出,改变了大众投资消费观念及渠道。在未来,传统的金融模式将不再是现代社会唯一的金融融资模式。从互联网金融的产生入手,总结归纳了互联网金融的特点及存在模式,并结合我国现阶段互联网金融的发展情况,对当前发展中存在的问题与风险进行了分析,探讨了未来我国互联网金融模式的发展方向并就面临的问题提出相应解决对策。     

基于碳交易的石化产业温室气体减排对策探究

依据温室气体排放权交易市场机制及其进展,讨论了石化产业与碳交易市场机制的关联,揭示了不同产能减排对绿色企业效益的贡献和期望。通过石化企业的碳减排对策分析,提出研究国内外碳排放交易市场机制,注重企业碳排放额度配置,突出装置型碳减排和综合低碳技术并重的企业技术创新模式,以及建立碳排放普查制度等。     

数字经济发展促进我国产业结构升级的机理与路径

通过数字经济发展来推动产业结构升级已经成为我国经济发展的重要战略。数字经济发展可以为产业结构升级提供技术创新、产品创新、商业应用模式创新、产业融合创新及需求侧结构创新等支持。然而,当前我国区域经济发展不平衡、数字技术的依赖效应、数字经济的垄断性、企业创新动力不足、复合型数字技术人才供给不足及数字化公共服务体系缺失等因素降低了数字经济推动产业结构升级的作用。基于此,我国应从完善数字经济治理体系,加强平台反垄断,加大需求侧改革,加强数字技术人才培养,加快数字经济与三次产业融合等方面提升数字经济对产业结构升级的促进作用。