Quantiles as optimal point forecasts

Loss functions play a central role in the theory and practice of forecasting. If the loss function is quadratic, the mean of the predictive distribution is the unique optimal point predictor. If the loss is symmetric piecewise linear, any median is an optimal point forecast. Quantiles arise as optimal point forecasts under a general class of economically relevant loss functions, which nests the asymmetric piecewise linear loss, and which we refer to as generalized piecewise linear (GPL). The level of the quantile depends on a generic asymmetry parameter which reflects the possibly distinct costs of underprediction and overprediction. Conversely, a loss function for which quantiles are optimal point forecasts is necessarily GPL. We review characterizations of this type in the work of Thomson, Saerens and Komunjer, and relate to proper scoring rules, incentive-compatible compensation schemes and quantile regression. In the empirical part of the paper, the relevance of decision theoretic guidance in the transition from a predictive distribution to a point forecast is illustrated using the Bank of England’s density forecasts of United Kingdom inflation rates, and probabilistic predictions of wind energy resources in the Pacific Northwest.     

The role of consumers in product‐oriented environmental policy: can the consumer be the driving force for environmental improvements?

In environmental policy, it is increasingly accepted that more emphasis should be placed on consumption and its implications from the point of view of the environment. Another relatively new feature is the focus on products. At the policy level, this perspective is known as product‐oriented environmental policy or, in brief, product policy. This approach is closely related to the idea of product chain thinking, which means recognizing the fact that environmentally relevant decisions are made at all stages during the products’ life cycle, from raw material extraction to consumption and beyond. Based on a Finnish study on product chain actors and environmental improvements, this article discusses the role of consumers in product policy (i) with respect to theories on consumer mecision‐making and (ii) in the light of product chain thinking. As consumers’ decision‐making models with respect to consumer products are most often based on heuristics simplifying the decision process, incorporating environmental considerations into these models is a challenging task for environmental policy.     

The influence of consumer decision‐making styles on online apparel consumption by college students

Apparel purchases now constitute one of the fastest‐growing segments of e‐commerce. Thus, there are strong theoretical and managerial reasons to better understand consumer characteristics associated with buying apparel online. This paper investigates motivations for online apparel consumption using the Consumer Styles Inventory. Data from a sample of 357 US college students showed that quality consciousness, brand consciousness, fashion consciousness, hedonistic shopping, impulsiveness and brand loyalty were positively correlated with online apparel shopping. Price sensitivity was negatively correlated with online spending.     

Condorcet's Jury Theorem and the reliability of majority voting

The effect on the Jury Theorem of dependency among votes is discussed. Condorcet's original model and theorem depend crucially on the assumption of independence and the applicability of the binomial distribution. Two simple extensions of the binomial distribution are used to illustrate the effects of dependency on the quality of group decision making. With the correlated binomial model, it is possible to isolate the effect of pairwise dependency. In the presence of fairly strong pairwise dependency, we are not even guaranteed the natural property of monotonicity with respect to voters. A Pólya-Eggenberger model illustrates the effect of contagion on group competence. A special case of the beta-binomial distribution is used to demonstrate that, even in the presence of synergetic group effects, we are not guaranteed infallible decisions from a very large group. Consequences for an epistemic theory of democracy are indicated.     

Managers and their not-so rational decisions

Today's corporate environment requires managers to be excellent decision makers. Their ability to make fast, widely-supported, and effective decisions will, in large part, shape the performance of their firms. In this article, we describe two cognitive systems that influence decision making. System 1 refers to a process that is fast, effortless, and intuitive. System 2 is a slow, controlled, and rule-governed decision-making process. Both are important to a wide variety of managerial decisions, and they interact with each other. There are, however, a number of forces at work that hinder the effectiveness of these processes. For example, we know from prospect theory that managers are unwilling to incur loss, so much so that they often make irrational decisions based on a small probability that they could avoid such loss. Another example, the escalation of commitment, explains why managers may continue to dedicate resources to failed projects. We describe these and other biases, with a view toward helping managers better understand the problems of decision making and improve the effectiveness of their decisions.     

“One of these days,things are going to change!” How do you make sense of market disruption?

The significance of mindsets is apparent in everyday business life. As today’s managers and companies face uncertainty and disruptive change in the business environment and markets, there is a growing need to understand and strategically address such change. This becomes challenging when disruptive market forces confront the institutional logic or rules of the game based on collectively acquired experience of doing business in the given field. In overcoming such challenges, managers’ hidden reasoning remains an untapped potential while their existing mindset influences what they attend to and what they decide to do. This article elaborates a diagnostic framework, accompanied by a tool to help managers make sense of disruptive markets and reflect individually and collectively on possible courses of action. The framework has two principal dimensions—strategic scope and focus—that are further divided into three business elements of strategic market-oriented management: offering, customer, and market. The tool offers a practical means of profiling individuals’ mindsets. In increasingly dynamic business environments, reflection capabilities represent a new source of competitive advantage.     

基于多属性模糊决策的行为投资组合优化模型

Simon认为经典决策理论的假定过分地严格,在实际中往往难以满足。运用上、下偏矩的方法来估计未来财富不低于渴求水平的概率,并基于多属性模糊决策方法构建两个心理帐户的行为投资组合优化模型。模型中融入了不同质投资者的真实情感、信念及认知状态,实证分析的结果表明该模型具有很强的实用性和包容性。     

Competitive analysis

Despite the strategic importance of understanding competitive structure and the dynamics of competitive behavior, there has been almost no empirical study of how managers perform these analyses. We provide a conceptualization of how competitive analyses can be framed by decision makers and for researching how human biases in decision making and corporate culture impact on the nature and use of competitive analysis information.We are grateful for the comments of George Day, Peter Dickson, Pete Fader, Don Lehmann, Rajan Varadarajan, and David Wheaton on an earlier version of this paper.