Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

基于ERP环境下的ABC理论及其运用

ERP和ABC是提高企业信息的质量(相关性)的主要手段,而信息的质量直接影响企业决策和管理的科学性。本文基于财务管理、标准成本、库存管理以及生产计划与控制等四个方面对ERP和ABC进行有效地结合,从而有利于企业价值链的优化、促进竞争能力的提高。     

探析汇率制度、购买力平价及国际货币供求因素对人民币汇率的长期影响

影响人民币汇率的因素很多,但其作用时间的长短却不同。文章通过对中国的汇率制度、购买力平价及国际货币供求的分析,来说明其对汇率的长期影响。     

企业核心竞争力提升的模型选择研究

价值链理论提出,系统是由一系列创造价值的环构成,约束理论帮助选择了价值提升的关键环节,价值工程理论从功能与成本的关系进行了投入产出比的分析。三种理论的结合为企业合理选择,提升其核心竞争力提供了理论依据。     

浅谈企业提高竞争力的新策略

随着国内市场的不断开放，尤其是中国“入世”后，企业更需要从国际竞争的角度来考虑和确定企业的竞争战略。     

国外关于旅游地水供需矛盾的研究

旅游业是地表水和地下水的主要使用者之一。随着旅游业的不断发展，对水资源的影响日益凸现，水供需矛盾已成为全球旅游可持续发展的主要制约因素之一。本文在阐述国外水供需矛盾旅游地主要区域特征的基础上．从系统角度深入分析了国外旅游地水供需矛盾及其主要影响因素，并从管理、技术、经济和教育等方面总结了国外水供需矛盾的主要调控措施与实施情况．以期丰富旅游水环境的研究视角，为我国旅游地水供需管理提供帮助。     

MODELLING THE ADAPTATION OF BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANNING BY BUSINESSES USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Business continuity planning is an important element of business continuity management and is regarded as a fundamental step towards reducing the negative impacts of business disruptions caused by internal and external hazardous events. Many businesses are not prepared for such events, and very few studies have tried to examine and model the factors that contribute to business continuity management planning by various companies. In this paper we propose and develop a feed‐forward neural network for modelling businesses continuity planning by businesses based on a dataset of 283 businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada. The fully connected neural network applied was trained on 65 % of the dataset records using different subsets of input variables. In order to preserve the generalization ability of the trained network, 15 % of the dataset records were used as a validation set for early stopping during the network's training process. Prediction capability of the trained networks was evaluated on 20 % and never‐seen records of the dataset. The classification ability of the networks was then analysed using receiver operating characteristic and detection error trade‐off curves, where the results obtained were promising. The equal error rate for the best models was 12 %, which reflects a very good accuracy of these models in predicting the existence of business continuity planning for a generic company. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城镇低收入人群社会保障供给测算模型及应用

以我国现行社会保障制度为依据,本文建立了城镇低收入人群社会保障供给的分析框架;基于城镇低收入人群社会保障供给系统的内在关系,运用微元分析法构建城镇低收入人群社会保障供给测算模型;并运用陕西省经验数据进行实证研究,结果表明陕西省城镇低收入人群社会保障供给以年均19.51%的增长速度从1997年的5.96亿元增长至2020年的429.63亿元,证明了模型的有效性。     

Can a Shorter Workweek Induce Higher Employment? Mandatory Reductions in the Workweek and Employment Subsidies

This paper presents a unified model of the impact on employment of a mandatory reduction in work hours in combination with an employment subsidy to reduce quasi-fixed costs of employment, while attempting to maintain worker's take-home pay or welfare level. Achieving the dual policy objectives of enhancing employment and maintaining worker income is not necessarily feasible. Nevertheless, a reduction in the legal workweek may induce a degree of downward wage flexibility, while an employment subsidy to firms accommodates downward wage rigidity. It may be possible, therefore, to increase employment with a policy that combines a reduction in the workweek with an employment subsidy. In general, however, the long run employment outcome is ambiguous, and a decline in output cannot be ruled out. More direct policy measures whose impact can be assessed with greater certainty—in particular, removing structural rigidities in the labor market—should be given priority to decrease long term unemployment.     

学习技术还是学习思想——西方经济学教学中的难点评析

在西方经济学的教学中,思想和技术的学习应该完美地结合起来,缺一不可。而中国大学西方经济学的课时安排与教材选择,基本的倾向是侧重于技术的学习而忽略了思想的学习。经过几年尝试性的试验,我们认为,应该在现在的教学模式上再增加一些基础课时来学习经济学基础,这对今后理解和掌握西方经济学并且借鉴西方经济学的有益部分不无好处。