Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&T). Forecasts of the likely future development of S&T are generated; then research and development (R&D) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast. But for new and emerging S&T this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are not articulated yet. A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence. This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach. The work is linked to a programme of Future oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities coordinated within a European nanotechnology research network.
Our paper addresses well-known lacunae of alignment tools from the viewpoints of the path creation/dependency literatures. We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms. We demonstrate a plausible variety of paths, which provides a broader set of strategic choices. This enables management of expectations and hype by which emerging S&T are characterised, and leads to alignment of actors. Our tool can be applied in strategic management of research and R&D at the level of science-to-industry networks. These are becoming an important element in European S&T policy but will only be successful if ways are found for closing gaps in the innovation chain. 相似文献
Understanding the nature of structural change and the sources of economic growth of an economy, especially the relative importance of different industries, is essential for policy‐making. This paper estimates industry contribution to economic growth in both Canada and the United States. It argues that industry contribution should be evaluated on the basis of the performance of an industry in terms of creating economic value relative to other industries. In particular, it calls for the quantity and the price effects, which is consistent with real GDP in the chained‐Fisher index that values the industry more when its price rises and less when its price declines. This is an important departure from the traditional methodologies that consider only quantity effect. This paper shows that the contribution from demand‐driven industries is significantly more than the finding based on traditional thinking. 相似文献