原产地标记的战略管理模型——“文山三七”原产地标记个案分析

原产地标记用于指示一项产品来源于该地,且该产品的质量特性完全或主要取决于该地的地理环境、自然条件,人文背景等因素。它是一种稀缺智力资源,基于产业生态(共生、集聚等)共生的平台,围绕战略、文化、结构3个方面构建原产地标记企业战略管理模型。     

汕头市城市定位与发展模式选择研究

本文系统地分析了汕头市城市发展的基本条件,在此基础上提出汕头市城市定位为“区域中心城市、现代化港口城市、滨海生态城市和国家经济特区”,并从产业发展、空间配置、要素整合、城市创新和城市特色等方面进行了思考。     

上海港对区域经济贡献的实证分析

航运中心服务于经济发展的作用,可以通过港口促进当地城市经济的发展来体现。本文拟通过投入—产出法来分析上海港对区域经济的贡献。     

A Classification of Dutch Manufacturing based on a Model of Innovation

Summary The paper studies the degree of homogeneity of innovative behavior in order to determine empirically an industry classification of Dutch manufacturing that can be used for policy purposes. Defining homogeneity in terms of an economic model distinguishes our classification from existing taxonomies such as those of the OECD, Pavitt and the various classifications based on a principal components analysis. We use a two-limit tobit model with sample selection, which explains the decisions by business enterprises to innovate and the impact these decisions have on the share of innovative sales. The model is estimated for eleven industries based on the Dutch Standard Industrial Classification (SBI 1993). A likelihood ratio (LR) test is then performed to test for equality of the parameters across industries. We find that Dutch manufacturing consists of three groups of industries in terms of innovative behavior, a high-tech group, a low-tech group and the industry of wood. The same pattern shows up in the three Dutch Community Innovation Surveys. The empirical part of this study has been carried out at the Centre for Research of Economic Microdata at Statistics Netherlands. The authors wish to thank Statistics Netherlands, and in particular Bert Diederen, for helping us in accessing and using the Micronoom data set. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors. The authors also wish to thank Fran?ois Laisney, Patrick Waelbroek and participants at presentations in Maastricht, Strasbourg, Leuven and Lille for their helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial support from METEOR.     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

Pure Altruism,Consumer Behavior and Choice Modeling*

An important assumption underlying non‐market valuation is that it is not the environment but the human preference that is valued. This paper attempts to test whether individual consumer behavior is influenced by a purely altruistic motive, examining the attitude of hikers towards the hypothetical removal of the Muju ski resort from the Mount Togyu National Park in South Korea. Data were collected from samples of hikers and skiers who visited the national park. The respondents were forced to consider trade‐offs between the recovery of the lost environmental assets in the Muju ski resort area, skiers’ additional travel time, and willingness‐to‐pay amounts for the hypothetical environmental improvement. It was found that hikers did not take into account skiers’ disutility represented by additional travel time.     

基于建立估价模型的企业并购绩效评价研究

企业并购绩效可借助一些方法加以评价,本文重点研究建立估价模型评价并购绩效。本文首先深入研究建立估价模型评价企业并购绩效的基本原理；在此基础上,通过对具体案例并购绩效实证研究进一步验证文中观点。本文认为建立估价模型、借助于EVA评价企业并购绩效是一种比较理想的方法。     

保险业增长预测中数量经济模型的应用研究

科学合理地预测保险业的发展状况，对于明确保险业未来的总体发展目标和战略重点。促进保险业持续健康发展，具有十分重大的意义。本文以内蒙古自治区保险业为例，通过对2006年-2010年内蒙古自治区保费收入的增长预测，提出了综合运用多元线性回归模型和霍尔特指数平滑法进行保险增长预测的预测方法。与传统预测方法相比，它能更好地保证保险增长预测的精确度。     

基于VAR 的我国预期通货膨胀率的估计问题研究

在当前影响物价变动的因素愈加广泛和复杂的背景下,如何准确把握未来通货膨胀预期走势进而有效调控通货膨胀至关重要。本文首先通过建立附加前瞻性政策变量的 VAR 预期模型, 根据 2002 年第一季度至 2014 年第三季度的通货膨胀率、实际利率和产出偏差的实际值与预期目 标值的偏差值季度数据,采用卡尔曼滤波递归算法得出我国的通货膨胀预期的估计结果。随后基 于理性预期理论对初步估计结果进行检验。研究结果表明,采用前三个月实际利率、实际通货膨 胀率的算术平均作为下期中国人民银行调控目标的预期值是较为符合我国情况的选择。