Dynamic panel cointegration approaches to the estimation of money demand functions

This paper investigates properties of the money demand functions of Group of Six (G6) member countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, U.K., and U.S.) using the estimation and inference techniques of panel cointegration. Empirical analyses are conducted by estimating money demand equations of G6 countries individually and as a whole, allowing heterogeneity in individual specific fixed effects across countries through dynamic, nonstationary panel estimation techniques. By using recently developed panel cointegration techniques, the paper contributes to the literature of money demand studies by improving the power performance of the relevant estimation and inference procedures. It reports fully modified OLS (FMOLS) estimation results of the money demand model for different data frequencies, to find varying signs and magnitudes of real income, interest rates and inflation elasticities of money demand for G6 nations.     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

我国农产品价格与热钱的实证研究

自2005年中国汇率形成机制改革以来,热钱流入中国的话题就开始趋热。在2006年末,世界农产品价格大幅上涨,围绕粮食、食品的国内外投资和交易成为新的经济热点。鉴于最近中国农产品价格发生了强烈波动的事实和农产品市场的重要性,本文通过对热钱规模和农产品价格指数的月度数据进行实证分析,得出热钱与农产品价格存在均衡关系,是农产品价格变化的Granger原因。     

Learning to choose a commodity-money: Carl Menger's theory of imitation and the search monetary framework

This paper studies Carl Menger's theory of the emergence of a commodity money. We propose an interpretation of Menger's learning by imitation process based on the search theoretical formal framework. We show that there exists a tension between the importance of intrinsic properties of commodities and the pure conventional self-fulfilling expectations of agents. This confirms the role of imitation in the emergence of monetary equilibria in search theory. We conclude that Menger's approach may support the idea that the fundamental property of a commodity-money (namely its great liquidity) is the result of its emergence process and not necessarily of its original intrinsic properties.     

Supra-National Money and the Euro Crisis: Lessons from Karl Polanyi

The paper seeks to examine some of the key features of Karl Polanyi’s ideas explaining the collapse of the pre-Great Depression unregulated market system by using his broad framework of analysis, as developed in The Great Transformation and published over 70 years ago, to explain the present Eurozone crisis. Emphasis is placed on the two key institutions of the pre-Depression era, namely haute finance and the gold standard, as well as his heterodox views on the nature and origin of money to shed light on the evolving crisis within the Eurozone. On the basis of Polanyi’s insights, the paper concludes that the cause of the latter crisis is similar and it lies primarily in the adoption of stateless or supra-national money that is even more restrictive on the behaviour of national authorities than the conditions imposed under the gold standard. The current situation of quasi-permanent austerity in the Eurozone is the inevitable consequence of its monetary architecture, and it will remain a long-term feature of Europe, unless significant institutional changes are put in place to bridge the gap between money and the state.     

2014年上半年中国货币市场运行报告

2014年上半年，中国人民银行继续执行稳健货币政策，适时主动地进行预调微调，有效稳定市场预期。货币市场平稳运行，成交规模稳步扩大，市场利率震荡下行，波动幅度逐步收窄，各子市场发展速度出现分化。银行业金融机构融出意愿有所增强，非银行市场主体参与度不断提升，货币市场流动性管理功能进一步发挥。     

Rethinking Money as an Institution of Capitalism and the Theory of Monetary Circulation: What Can Modern Heterodox Economists/Institutionalists Learn from Karl Polanyi?

Modern heterodox theories of money reject the neoclassical conception of money as primarily a medium to facilitate exchange. These heterodox theories of money all have as common starting point an analysis of credit-debt relations in which production is a central feature, with these economies organized along capitalistic design. The Keynesian-Marxian framework describing the process of monetary circulation, traditionally referred to as the theory of the monetary circuit (TMC), perhaps best represents this comprehensive vision. This broad TMC analytical framework is compatible with institutionalist theories of money that also point to the importance of credit-debt relations. The question, however, is whether this more unified heterodox theory of money, which describes sequentially monetary relations under capitalism, can be used to understand pre-capitalistic monetary institutions. By conceptualizing money as a means of payment rather than medium of exchange, Karl Polanyi’s analysis offers social scientists crucial insights to understanding monetary relations in all types of societies in which credit-debt relations have emerged historically.