深度贫困地区多维贫困治理绩效研究*——以四省藏区为例

[目的]我国贫困治理正在由单一驱动转变为多维治理,对四省藏区的多维贫困治理绩效展开测度与分解,不仅有助于更加清晰地认识当前阶段四省藏区贫困治理的现状与短板,而且有利于对深度贫困地区脱贫攻坚工作提供明确的参考。[方法]借鉴A-F多维贫困测量方法,提出多维贫困治理的测量方法,利用四省藏区484份农户调查数据,对四省藏区农户的多维贫困治理绩效进行测量与分解。[结果]四省藏区收入和住房维度的治理绩效突出,但在居住环境、教育和医疗意识维度表现出来的现代伦理思想差距明显;青海藏区多维贫困治理绩效最高,云南藏区排名靠后,主要受居住环境和医疗意识维度限制;户主受教育年限与多维贫困治理绩效成正比。[结论]四省藏区多维贫困治理绩效显著,主要体现在经济收入与基础设施方面,但贫困农户的现代思想与发展意识还较为匮乏。因此,一方面,在安排教育、住房、医疗等项目时,不能单纯追求数字层面或指标层面的脱贫,应当辅以相应现代思想的教育引导,转变贫困农户的落后陈旧意识,并将其作为脱贫攻坚的重要手段。另一方面,把基础教育作为解决四省藏区深度贫困问题的突破口,在普及义务教育的同时,采取有效的举措重点解决学生不愿意进入高中阶段学习的问题,并转变陈旧的子女教育观念,以防止教育维度的代际传递。     

农户多维贫困及致贫机理研究——以甘肃省840份农户为例

贫困是人的可行能力在收入或消费、教育、就业、医疗卫生、社会保障、获取信息和技术的机会等多个维度被剥削的现象,多维贫困指数反映了贫困人口或家庭的多维贫困发生率及承受的剥削强度。借鉴Alkire and Foeter开发的多维贫困测量方法,并以此方法为基础设计调查问卷,采用分层随机抽样选取甘肃省13个村子进行调查研究,然后利用对甘肃省部分农户家庭的实地调研数据,从收入、教育、健康、生活水平和社会关系5个维度对贫困地区农户的多维贫困状况进行了测算与分解。结果表明,1~5个维度的多维贫困指数分别为28.8%、21.7%、16.3%、7.6%和1.1%;甘肃省农户家庭的"基本可行能力"被剥削的情况严重,贫困发生率高,贫困深度和贫困强度均高于其它省份或地区。从农户所处贫困的维度状况梳理出了甘肃省农户致贫的机理:受教育水平不足导致的"能力贫困"导致家庭普遍陷入多维贫困和低收入均衡水平,其贡献率随着贫困维度增加而递减,对绝对贫困的贡献较小;而收入和健康的贫困贡献率随着贫困维度的增加而上升,在绝对贫困家庭中,家庭成员不理想的健康状态,尤其是主要劳动力残疾或患有重大疾病使得家庭陷入"贫困的恶性循环"。未来政府扶贫政策制定和执行应根据致贫维度状况进行有效瞄准,更加关注农户遭受的"能力贫困"困境,提高扶贫效率。     

Retirement and Social Security in a Probabilistic Voting Model

Why are social security transfers associated with retirement rules? This paper focuses on the political interactions between retirement and social security. Using a probabilistic voting approach, it analyzes why old people are induced to retire in order to receive pension transfers from the young. A crucial hypothesis is that leisure in old age represents a “merit good,” which is positively valued by all agents in the society, young and old. Thus, the politicians choose to tax the labor income of the old, to induce them to retire. Retirement increases the level of ideological homogeneity of the old. In fact, once retired, the elderly are more “single-minded,” since they only care about redistributive issues, such as pensions. This increase in their political power allows them to win the political game and to receive a positive transfer from the young (social security).     

生态治理:政府主导作用的逻辑理路、基本样态 和多维转型

在推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的进程中,生态治理在国家治理体系中举足轻重。面对经济转型带来的各种生态环境问题,基于市场经济的局限性和政府基本职能的价值指向,政府在生态治理中起主导作用。提供财政、税收、金融体制支撑和决策、法律、监督、激励、补偿机制保障是政府发挥生态治理主导作用的基本样态。价值理念、思维方式和行动逻辑三个维度的转型则是对政府提升生态治理能力的进一步诠释。     

基于Neo4j图数据库的人员关系挖掘

针对重点关系人分析与确定问题,基于人员信息数据、话单数据和火车/航班出行数据构建多维关系网络,提出利用Neo4j图数据库的查询分析功能挖掘共同联系人、共同出行人和重点关系人,查找和发现密切接触者、嫌疑人及团伙等的方法,搭建了多维关系网络分析演示系统。实验结果表明,在保证准确率的情况下,所提方法的分析效率相较对比方法提高5倍以上。     

Developing Moral Principles and Scenarios in the Light of Diversity: An Extension to the Multidimensional Ethics Scale

The purpose of this article is to develop the multidimensional ethics scale and moral scenarios that allow or even support diversity in managers’ reactions when measuring their moral decision-making. This means that we expand the multidimensional ethics scale with a female ethics dimension and take a critical look at the previously used scenarios in the light of diversity. Furthermore, we develop two new scenarios in order to better attain diversity in managers’ moral decision-making. Diversity is primarily looked at from a gender perspective, meaning that we pay attention to the femininities and masculinities of the scale items and scenarios. In addition, we use the concept of social desirability to assess diversity as we presume that social desirability works against diversity. Our article builds on previous research using the multidimensional ethics scale. First, we present a summary of the theoretical dimensions of the original multidimensional ethics scale and extend the scale with female ethics principles to foster diversity. Second, we analyse and assess previously used moral scenarios in order to see how they permit the expression of diversity. Third, we develop two new scenarios based on the interviews conducted with female managers.