The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve. We estimate a Phillips curve model taking into account the non-stationary properties in inflation and identify a small but significant positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results also provide some evidence that the trade-off between inflation and the rate of unemployment in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases.     

Measuring the natural yield curve

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the natural yield curve (NYC) – the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to directly affect long-term interest rates (e.g. via quantitative easing) the gap between the short-term real and natural rate is no more a good indicator of the monetary policy stance. We estimate the NYC on US data, document its main properties and show i.a. that in the period 2008 to 2011 the NYC allows to better capture the US monetary policy stance than the short-term natural rate.     

Dynamics of environmental quality and economic development: the regional experience from Yangtze River Delta of China

This article investigates the dynamic relationship between economic progress and environmental quality at a regional level. An important economic intuition in this context is that environmental degradation will be limited by human behaviour if costs and benefits of such degradation are local since economic agents will then be incentivized to choose appropriate corrective action. Therefore, we note the likelihood that regional economic development can help regions ‘grow out of’ environmental problems. Using a new data set from Yangtze River Delta of China, we find a strong confirmation of the intuition that human can and will resolve the environmental problem by altering the damaging behaviour of economic agents. A very interesting finding of this study is that the relationship between environmental quality and economic progress measured by per capita income can display a wave-like function in the case of water pollution, as opposed to the much dramatized environmental Kuznets curve, with significant policy implications.     

Strategic visualisation tools for managing technological information

In an information economy, the effective management of a massive amount of technological information is inevitable when attempting to facilitate the decision-making process. It is an important part of selecting R&D projects and allocating budgets to promising technology development. Information visualisation is thus regarded as a critical tool in technological information management because it can provide decisive implications that the intelligence of humans cannot produce. This paper proposes six graphical forms, including a technology tree, a technology map, a technology network, a technology matrix, a technology curve, and a technology dictionary, presenting the generic form and concept of each method. Moreover, the principles and applications of such visualisation tools are suggested in order to enhance their use in practical circumstances. A case study of TFT-LCD (thin film transistor-liquid crystal display) technology will help to explain how to apply visualisation tools to strategic technology management.     

Leaving EMU: a real options perspective

The real option implicit in a country's decision of whether to leave an existing monetary union when there is uncertainty over the future benefits of this move is examined. The theoretical model used is calibrated for the current Euro-12 area by proxying policymakers’ inflation preferences with unemployment rates and debt-to-GDP ratios. A robust group of countries is observed that would choose to remain within EMU consisting of Belgium, Finland, Greece and Italy; France and Spain loosely also belong to this core. Only Luxembourg would robustly want to leave EMU; Ireland and The Netherlands, however, complement that core closely.     

品牌经济学的理论基础——引入品牌的需求曲线及其经济学分析

需求定律是经济学分析的理论基础之一,品牌经济学的理论基础为引入品牌的需求曲线或考虑选择成本的需求定律。把品牌引入经济学中后,品牌信用度的提高使需求曲线右移并变得更为陡峭,同时品牌信用度的提高改变了需求曲线的位置,使得均衡价格提高,均衡数量增加,增加了消费者剩余和生产者剩余,提高了社会福利水平。文章为“品牌战”替代“价格战”提供了理论依据,即通过品牌建设提高品牌信用度,使得在价格提高的条件下需求量增加,而这只有在需求曲线改变位置时方能做到。     

Unemployment disparities and regional wage flexibility: comparing EU members and EU-accession countries

This paper provides empirical evidence on regional labor market flexibility in Europe and, in particular, in the EU-accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Whereas substantial regional disparities in unemployment are found for pre-accession EU member countries as well as for accession countries, an empirical analysis taking account of spatial effects shows that regional wage flexibility is significantly higher for accession countries. Moreover, unemployment disparities are found to be less persistent in the accession countries.

我国商业银行利率风险管理技术探究

随着利率市场化的不断深化,我国商业银行日益面临重大的利率风险。本文简要分析了利率风险的基本态势,同时考察并探究了利率风险管理技术如何适应这类变化。     

环境约束下地区全要素生产率增长及影响因素研究——基于马姆奎斯特生产率指数和环境库兹涅茨曲线分析

采用非参数马姆奎斯特(Malmquist)指数估算我国2000～2009年29个省、直辖市和自治区的全要素生产率(TFP),并分析了人均GDP、人口密度、教育水平、城镇化率对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:在给定资源投入情况下,东部的生产率增加值大于中部、西部,同时污染排放还小于中部、西部;人均GDP与TFP呈倒U型曲线,即环境要素生产率与人均GDP之间存在环境库兹涅茨(EKC)曲线关系;教育水平与环境要素生产率正相关,城镇化率和人口密度与TFP负相关。     

经济发展与环境关系的实证研究

运用1995～2008年我国省际面板数据,对我国人均GDP与人类发展指数(HDI)两类经济发展指标与包括废水、废气、废渣的3类污染指标之间的关系进行了检验。实证结果发现,3类污染物指标与2类收入指标均大都呈现倒N型的关系,只有工业废水排放量与HDI呈现倒U型关系。表明我国各类污染物排放量随着经济的发展还是遵循较一致的路径的,这告诫我们,不发达省份应当吸收借鉴发达省份的环境治理经验,发挥后发优势,避免再走先污染后治理的老路。更为重要的是,已经越过倒N型第二个临界值的发达省份应极力避免经济发展与环境污染之间发生不利的重组现象,例如倒N型重组为W型。