Measuring the natural yield curve

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the natural yield curve (NYC) – the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to directly affect long-term interest rates (e.g. via quantitative easing) the gap between the short-term real and natural rate is no more a good indicator of the monetary policy stance. We estimate the NYC on US data, document its main properties and show i.a. that in the period 2008 to 2011 the NYC allows to better capture the US monetary policy stance than the short-term natural rate.     

Health benefits of tunneling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)

In this paper, we first add to what is a growing literature on the existence and nature of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for developing countries, by testing for the existence of an EKC for China using a panel data set of city-specific, annual ambient levels of SO₂ pollution. We find some support for both the typical inverted-U-shaped relationship and an N-shaped, cubic configuration. More significantly, we then explore the possibility of China's “tunneling” through the EKC, by using newer, cleaner technologies, and thereby avoiding some of the environmental degradation that had often accompanied economic growth. Specifically, we estimate and economically value the health benefits realizable to Chinese cities from successful efforts to “tunnel” under the EKC over the next generation.     

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps. Comments from two anonymous referees, Q. Farooq Akram, Tommy Sveen, Ken West, Fredrik Wulfsberg and seminar participants in Norges Bank are gratefully acknowledged. All mistakes remain our own. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Norges Bank.     

环境规制的技术进步效应：基于省级面板数据的经验分析

利用2000—2010年中国内地30个省市面板数据,对环境规制与技术进步的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,基于全国层面的分析,环境规制对技术进步有正向影响;基于地区层面的分析,环境规制对技术进步的影响具有明显的区域差异,东部地区为正面效应,中部和西部地区为负面效应。在此基础上,验证环境规制对于技术进步的影响呈现倒“N”型曲线特征。针对研究结果,提出相应的政策建议。     

工业废水污染与城镇化进程的动态关系分析

选取2003—2012年中国工业废水中的5类污染物,对工业废水污染物和城镇化率的关系进行库兹涅茨曲线拟合,并在此基础上采用3次指数平滑法对工业废水污染物的排放量进行预测。结果表明:随着城镇化建设的加快,我国工业废水污染物中石油类和铅的排放量呈现先下降后上升的趋势,但化学需氧量、氨氮和挥发酚等污染物却不符合典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状。预计到2020年,化学需氧量和氨氮的排放量将呈现负值,而挥发酚、石油类和铅的排放量将急剧增加。     

The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis and Air Pollution in Finland

Abstract

The historiography of mercantilism has been described as a series of disconnected still pictures which reflect the shifting viewpoints of economic thought.¹ However, historians have favoured different concepts of mercantilism not only in response to the shifts of economic science but also because they have held, explicitly or implicitly, different opinions on the problem of how economic ideas are formed and of the role they have played in historical development. The following reexamination of some of those ‘stills’ concentrate on such differences.²     

资产结构与企业经营绩效的最优化配置研究——以中国纺织机械股份有限公司为例

本文认为,较之资本结构,资产结构的研究更具实际应用价值和普适意义,它们才是创造公司价值和抵御各项风险的源泉。基于此,本文试图从逻辑和实证两个角度评价资产结构与企业绩效之间的关系,并希望通过评价实证结论的相关性程度,来求得各变量之间的函数方程式。在此基础上,本文再分别进行各变量的曲线拟合,试图通过在建立拟合方程模型的基础上,求出其最优资产配置值。     

直流电机系统的建模技术研究

本文针对传统直流电机的模型建立问题，基于曲线拟合技术，提出了简洁有效的参数辨识方法。由于实际的直流电机模型正反向参数差别很大，因此本建模方法中对直流电机的正向模型和反向模型分别对待。实验结果验证了所建立的直流电机模型的优越性能。     

非等变角对数螺旋线在扭曲叶片绘型中的应用

扭曲叶片的绘型常采用的单锥面展开法 ,因是基于局部相似 ,所以 ,存在误差 ,无法分析 ,难以编程。笔者在有关水泵问题研究中 ,对扭曲叶片绘型的单锥面展开法进行了改进 ,给出利用非等变角对数螺旋线进行叶片绘型的新方法。这种方法能够很好地控制β角的变化规律 ,并能对误差进行分析和修正 ,便于编程计算 ,易于操作 ,在水泵设计中有广泛的实用价值。     

传统企业电子商务转型的价值曲线与收支曲线

本文阐述了传统企业电子商务转型的必要性，提出并分析了传统企业电子商务转型的价值曲线和收支曲线。