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Laila Arjuman Ara 《美中经济评论(英文版)》2005,4(10):13-19,32
This paper empirically investigates the performance of GARCH model in forecasting the volatility of exchange rate of some developing countries. We apply linear GARCH model and non-linear GARCH model. We fit these two models to some developing countries exchange rate index from January, 1998 to February, 2005. The return series of the developing countries' foreign exchange rate are leptokurtic, significantly skew, deviating from normality and volatile clustering as well. We find within-sample and out-of-sample evidence that conditional estimates of non-linear GARCH model outperform the conditional estimations of linear GARCH models. In our comparisons in most of the developing countries, the non-linear GARCH model produce better results than the linear GARCH model tor forecasting the volatility of exchange rate. 相似文献
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Synopsis The Neo-classical approach to fisheries management is based on designing and applying bioeconomic models. Traditionally, the
basic bioeconomic models have used pre-established non-linear functional forms (logistic, Cobb–Douglas) in order to try to
reflect the dynamics of the renewable resources under study. This assumption might cause misspecification problems and, in
consequence, a loss of predictive ability. In this work we intend to verify if there is a bias motivated by employing the
said non-linear parametric perspective. For this purpose, we employ a novel non-linear and non-parametric prediction method,
called Genetic Algorithms, and we compare its results with those obtained from the traditional methods. 相似文献
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管理信息系统已深入到各行各业,但开发高质量的MIS远落后于计算机发展,由于系统设计缺陷及满足需求增长的不适应,给用户带来不便与损失,并缩短了系统使用寿命。为此,提出了基于非线性科学的管理信息系统构建思路:对系统信息进行统计自相似性分析,能对未来信息进行动态预测;对功能部分与整体进行自相似性分析,从而部分能有效地过渡到整体。 相似文献
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The popular sentiment-based investor index SBW introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) is shown to have no predictive ability for stock returns. However, Huang et al. (2015) developed a new investor sentiment index, SPLS, which can predict monthly stock returns based on a linear framework. However, the linear model may lead to misspecification and lack of robustness. We provide statistical evidence that the relationship between stock returns, SBW and SPLS is characterized by structural instability and inherent nonlinearity. Given this, using a nonparametric causality approach, we show that neither SBW nor SPLS predicts stock market returns or even its volatility, as opposed to previous empirical evidence. 相似文献
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中国农村经济发展积累过程形态分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
了解中国农村经济发展的经济结构对认识中国农村经济有着特殊的意义。本文旨在通过全国30个省、自治区和直辖市经济发展的比较研究,运用值域分析、方差分析和回归分析方法、探索出全国经济积累过程的发展形态,总结出地区伴随着经济发展过程而出现的特有经济结构现象,寻找问题症结的所在和解决问题的突破点,为国家经济提供建设性参考建议。 相似文献
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