Technology adoption decisions under a mixed regulatory system of tradable permits and air pollution fees for the control of Total Suspended Particulates in Taiwan

By using a newly proposed tradable permit system built under the current air pollution fee regulation for the control of Total Suspended Particulates in Taiwan as an example, a mixed-integer non-linear programming model that minimizes the total regulatory costs of firms is applied to investigate how different permit trading ratios and the design of banking might affect firms’ technology adoption decisions and permit trading behavior. By incorporating binary variables in the model to represent firms’ decisions as to whether or not to install new control equipment, the results show that when the unit air pollution fee rate is higher than the firms’ abatement costs, the design of banking causes many firms to install new control equipment that results in an over-reduction of emissions. If no air pollution fee is imposed, the trading ratio plays a more important role than the reservation rate for banking in determining the firms’ emission reduction strategies under a pure permit trading scheme. While the conclusion from this study that uses a non-uniformly mixed pollutant as an example may hold only when certain conditions are met, the framework can be applied to other uniformly mixed pollutants through parameter changes without any limitation. In addition, the modeling technique presented here offers policy-makers a very convenient approach to empirical analysis.      

南水北调西线一期工程区泥石流发育的非线性特征

通过对研究区103条泥石流沟发育状况统计显示,泥石流沟的数目、发育密度及规模在不同流域表现出不同特点;综合分析表明。泥石流沟的流域面积、主沟长度及平均沟床比降存在明显的分维特征,泥石流堆积物粒度组成具有很好的分形结构,这种良好的非线性关系在一定程度上揭示了研究区泥石流发育的非均一性和自相似性;分析得出了在沟谷流域面积〈5km^2,主沟长度〈5km及主沟平均沟床比降10％～60％时研究区内泥石流最易暴发的结论。     

知识流量与企业绩效的关系——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于知识基础观,以2010—2014年262家中国上市公司为样本,检验了不同来源的知识流量与企业绩效的非线性关系,以及不同来源的知识流量之间的互补或替代效应。研究结果表明:内部知识开发和地理位置分别与企业绩效之间存在倒U型关系;并购重组与企业绩效之间存在U型关系;内部知识开发与并购重组之间存在相互替代效应,该替代效应对企业绩效产生负向影响;未发现内部知识开发与地理位置之间存在互补或替代效应。     

REVISITING THE REAL WAGES–UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP. NEW RESULTS FROM NON-LINEAR MODELS

We examine the long-run real wages–unemployment relationship for five OECD countries over the period 1960:1–2001:4. Given the theoretical possibility of non-linear equilibrium due to downward real wage rigidity we employ econometric tests that allow for the presence of non-linearities in the long-run equilibrium. We adopt the notion of 'hidden co-integration' suggested by Granger and Yoon . This methodology has several advantages with respect to other non-linear models. We find statistical evidence that, in general, there is a long-run positive relation between real wages and unemployment only when both are affected by positive shocks. We also find a negative relationship between unemployment and productivity. The empirical analysis is complemented with the estimation of error correction models for all countries.     

THE EXTENT OF THE WORLD COFFEE MARKET

This paper employs a novel method to determine whether the prices of various types of coffee are co-integrated. In the spirit of Stigler's arbitrage definition of the market, an attempt is made to test whether all the prices co-integrate in pairs, implying that there is a single market for coffee. This test for co-integration is carried out using both linear and non-linear approaches. This finding demonstrates that the conclusions drawn from the linear and non-linear tests may be drastically different.     

非线性系统的决定论与非决定论

非线性系统的决定论问题是科学领域内的一个十分复杂的问题。非线性科学表现出的许多特征使决定论面临巨大冲击,动摇着经典科学基于简单性信念的世界图景,引发持续不休的论争和困惑。基于当代力学学科所具有的普遍非线性特征,结合当代科技革命所带来的新的变化和新的要求,首先对非线性系统进行了区别于数学形式上的非线性定义,力求突破通常对决定论与非决定论的简单二分。在对决定论与非决定论概念重新界定和分析的基础上,给出了态的哲学定义,进而提出了态决定论的观点,指出：非线性是对严格决定论的彻底否定,但不是对非决定论的肯定,因此,并不必然导致科学的非决定论。态决定论的非线性、外部扰动、多因素耦合、结构和参数不确定性或时变性等多因素作用,使对非线性系统的研究呈现出新的科学图景,     

技术创新视角下外商直接投资与金融发展的空间非线性关系——基于半参数空间模型的实证检验

本文以全国30个省份的面板数据为样本,建立普通面板回归、空间滞后模型以及半参数空间滞后模型进行比较,探讨科技创新视角下金融发展的空间溢出效应以及外商直接投资对金融发展的非线性单向影响形态。由结果可知,由于金融资源高度流动性和信息扩张的快速化,金融发展的空间溢出效应明显;外商直接投资对金融发展的影响是非线性、呈现“V”型的三阶段效应。建议优化外商直接投资结构、缩小区域金融发展差距、大力投资教育和研发以推动全国金融市场的发展、提高外商直接投资利用率,转变经济发展模式。     

新型城镇化能否提高农业全要素生产率——基于地级市面板数据的分析

目的 农业全要素生产率提高是推动乡村振兴的关键因素之一,新型城镇化与农业全要素生产率之间具有内在的逻辑关系,对新型城镇化与农业全要素生产率之间的关系进行探究具有重要意义。方法 文章从经济基础、社会功能、生态环境和城乡融合等4个维度构建新型城镇化综合指标体系,基于2001—2021年的数据采用熵权TOPSIS方法对我国285个地级市的新型城镇化发展水平进行测度,采用DEA-Malmquist指数测算农业全要素生产率,构建动态面板平滑转移模型研究新型城镇化对农业全要素生产率的影响。结果 （1）样本期间,从总体来看,我国的新型城镇化和农业全要素生产率均呈增长趋势。（2）新型城镇化对农业全要素生产率的影响存在显著的非线性关系,当农村居民人均可支配收入低于门槛值时,新型城镇化会对农业全要素生产率产生显著的推动作用;而当农村居民人均可支配收入高于门槛值时,新型城镇化会对农业全要素生产率产生显著的阻碍作用。（3）新型城镇化对不同地区、不同城市规模以及不同粮食功能区农业全要素生产率的影响均存在显著的异质性。结论 新型城镇化会对农业全要素生产率产生显著影响,要想在推动城镇化的同时实现农业全要素生产率提升,必须从提高农业现代化水平、农业生产效率以及农业扶持力度等多个方面同时入手。     

Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk

We propose a novel semi-nonparametric distribution that is feasibly parameterized to represent the non-Gaussianities of the asset return distributions. Our Moments Expansion (ME) density presents gains in simplicity attributable to its innovative polynomials, which are defined by the difference between the nth power of the random variable and the nth moment of the density used as the basis. We show that the Gram–Charlier distribution is a particular case of the ME-type of densities. The latter being more tractable and easier to implement when quadratic transformations are used to ensure positiveness. In an empirical application to asset returns, the ME model outperforms both standard and non-Gaussian GARCH models along several risk forecasting dimensions.     

The Economics of Shallow Lakes

Ecological systems such as shallow lakes areusually non-linear and display discontinuitiesand hysteresis in their behaviour. Thesesystems often also provide conflicting servicesas a resource and a waste sink. This impliesthat the economic analysis of these systemsrequires to solve a non-standard optimalcontrol problem or, in case of a commonproperty resource, a non-standard differentialgame. This paper provides the optimalmanagement solution and the open-loop Nashequilibrium for a dynamic economic analysis ofthe model for a shallow lake. It alsoinvestigates whether it is possible to induceoptimal management in case of common use of thelake, by means of a tax. Finally, some remarksare made on the feedback Nash equilibrium.