Visualizing the Invisible Hand of Markets: Simulating Complex Dynamic Economic Interactions

In complex systems, many different parts interact in nonobvious ways. Traditional research focuses on a few or a single aspect of the problem so as to analyse it with the tools available. To get a better insight of phenomena that emerge from complex interactions, we need instruments that can analyse simultaneously complex interactions between many parts. Here, a simulator modelling different types of economies is used to visualize complex quantitative aspects that affect economic dynamics. The main conclusions are: (1) relatively simple economic settings produce complex nonlinear dynamics and, therefore, linear regressions are often unsuitable to capture complex economic dynamics; (2) flexible pricing of goods by individual agents according to their microenvironment increases the health and wealth of the society, but asymmetries in price sensitivity between buyers and sellers increase price inflation; (3) prices for goods conferring risky long-term benefits are not tracked efficiently by simple market forces; (4) division of labour creates synergies that improve enormously the health and wealth of the society by increasing the efficiency of economic activity; (5) stochastic modelling improves our understanding of real economies, and didactic games based on them might help policy-makers and nonspecialists in grasping the complex dynamics underlying even simple economic settings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国际原油价格冲击对我国经济影响的实证分析

本文以VAR计量模型为基础,采用线性方法和非线性方法,通过运用脉冲响应分析及方差分解,计算各经济变量对石油价格冲击的弹性来讨论油价冲击对我国经济的影响。同时引入模型中的还有GDP增长率、财政支出、以M2口径度量的货币供应量、居民消费价格指数和一年期存款利率等因素。最终发现油价冲击对我国经济造成的影响是非对称的,油价上升会滞后性地阻碍经济增长,而油价下降只是在短期对经济有正面的刺激作用。     

变速器拨叉的材料非线性分析与研究

本文针对变速器用某拨叉的材料非线性分析方法和验证进行研究。本文详细介绍了某拨叉材料非线性的加载、仿真分析和结果的验证对比过程。同时,以某拨叉的线性分析和非线性分析的适用工况、二者分析结果的精度进行对比分析,提出了合理化的分析方法选择的建议。最终全面地完成了某拨叉分析工况的确定和分析精度的判断。     

Investigating the Number of Non-linear and Multi-modal Relationships Between Observed Variables Measuring Growth-oriented Atmosphere

This study investigates the number of non-linear and multi-modal relationships between observed variables measuring the Growth-oriented Atmosphere. The sample (N = 726) represents employees of three vocational high schools in Finland. The first stage of analysis showed that only 22% of all dependencies between variables were purely linear. In the second stage two sub samples of the data were identified as linear and non-linear. Both bivariate correlations and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) parameter estimates were found to be higher in the linear sub sample. Results showed that some of the highest bivariate correlations in both sub samples were explained via third variable in the non-linear Bayesian dependence modeling (BDM). Finally, the results of CFA and BDM led in different substantive interpretations in two out of four research questions concerning organizational growth.     

非线性编辑课程开放性实验教学改革探讨

非线性编辑课程是教育技术学专业学生的必修课,课程性质要求学生在掌握基本理论知识的基础上,重点突出实践能力的培养。本研究基于笔者所在学校的教学实际条件,结合非线性编辑课程实验教学的特点,创造性地运用开放性实验教学策略。教学结果表明,开放性实验教学策略能够切实有效地提高课程教学效果,大幅度提升学生的实践操作能力。     

单摆非线性动力响应的增维精细积分法

文章采用高精度、高效率的增维精细积分法推导出求解单摆非线性动力响应的迭推公式,通过单摆线性解与非线性解的对比分析,得出了能够简化为线性动力问题的初始摆角最大值以及初始摆角对非线性动力响应的影响规律。     

Threshold effect in the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market returns: a PSTR specification

This article verifies whether the hypothesis of heterogeneous agent modelling and the behavioural heterogeneity framework can reproduce recent stylized facts regarding stock markets (e.g. the 1987 crash, internet bubble, and subprime crisis). To this end, we investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market returns for the G7 countries from June 1987 to February 2014. We propose an empirical non-linear panel data specification based on the panel switching transition model to capture the investor sentiment-stock return relationship, while enabling investor sentiment to act asymmetrically, non-linearly, and time varyingly according to the market state and investor attitude towards risk. Our findings are twofold. First, we show that the hypotheses of efficiency, rationality, and representative agent do not hold in reproducing stock market dynamics. Second, investor sentiment affects stock returns significantly and non-linearly, but its effects vary with the market conditions. Indeed, the market appears predominated by fundamental investors in the first regime. In the second regime, investor sentiment effect is positively activated, increasing stock returns; however, when their overconfidence sentiment exceeds some threshold, this effect becomes inverse in the third regime for a high threshold level of market confidence and investor over-optimism.     

Asymmetric price transmission in the Spanish lamb sector

This article investigates the non-linear adjustment betweenfarm and retail prices in the lamb sector in Spain, using athree-regime Threshold Autoregressive Model. The results indicatethat, in the long run, price transmission is perfect and anysupply or demand shocks are fully transmitted along the marketingchain. In the short run, price adjustments between the farmand the retail levels are asymmetric and reveal a demand-pulltransmission mechanism. On the other hand, retailers benefitfrom any shock, whether positive or negative, that affects supplyor demand conditions.     

基于RBF网络的商业银行信用风险控制研究

对信用风险的有效控制与管理,在现代商业银行日常运行过程中具有举足轻重的地位。基于信用风险系统是一个高度复杂的非线性动态系统,利用神经网络的自适应学习、并行分布处理和较强的鲁棒性及容错性等特性,建立基于RBF神经网络的信用风险预测控制模型,从理论上探寻信用风险非线性智能控制。仿真试验表明,信用风险度能被控制在以最佳风险度为中心的一定范围内。因此,该预测控制系统适合于商业银行信用风险的控制。