加快壮大广东县域经济 全面建设小康社会

本文通过分析广东县域经济发展现状并与其他强省比较,提出了广东县域经济发展对策。其对策应是强县扩权,发展地方特色经济,调整和优化产业结构,大力发展民营经济,稳步推进小城镇建设。     

The association between two random elements: A complete characterization and odds ratio models

For random elements X and Y (e.g. vectors) a complete characterization of their association is given in terms of an odds ratio function. The main result establishes for any odds ratio function and any pre-specified marginals the unique existence of a corresponding joint distribution (the joint density is obtained as a limit of an iterative procedure of marginal fittings). Restricting only the odds ratio function but not the marginals leads to semi-parmetric association models for which statistical inference is available for samples drawn conditionally on either X or Y. Log-bilinear association models for random vectors X and Y are introduced which generalize standard (regression) models by removing restrictions on the marginals. In particular, the logistic regression model is recognized as a log-bilinear association model. And the joint distribution of X and Y is shown to be multivariate normal if and only if both marginals are normal and the association is log-bilinear.Acknowledgements The author thanks both referees for their helpful comments which improved the first draft of the paper.     

基于精算方法的信用风险的量化

比较了保险风险和信贷风险的基本特征后可以发现，精算模型的方法和思路可以用来描述商业银行的信用风险。可以通过定性分析和定量分析相结合的方式，推导出适用的信用风险量化管理模型。在数据整理和检验的基础上，借鉴寿险精算的生命模型思想可以建立“正常-损失”模型，进而实现对贷款损失率的解释；借鉴非寿险准备金测算的方法，可以采用链梯法测算商业银行短期贷款业务应提取的贷款坏账准备金数额。在上述方法的基础上，可以将“正常-损失”模型与链梯法结合起来，测算长期贷款的坏账准备金。     

An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices

We explore the ability of alternative popular continuous-time diffusion and jump-diffusion processes to capture the dynamics of implied volatility indices over time. The performance of the various models is assessed under both econometric and financial metrics. To this end, data are employed from major European and American implied volatility indices and the rapidly growing CBOE volatility futures market. We find that the addition of jumps is necessary to capture the evolution of implied volatility indices under both metrics. Mean reversion is of second-order importance though. The results are consistent across the various metrics, markets, and construction methodologies.     

倏逝波在一维氧化硅亚微米波导线中传输特性的研究

[HTK]基于光学倏逝波原理的光纤或波导传感器是目前光学传感器领域的重要发展方向之一,而倏逝波在其中的传输特性是决定该类传感器敏感特性的关键因数.利用倏逝场理论分析了直径102～103nm的一维氧化硅亚微米光波导在其直径与外部介质(折射率)变化时倏逝波的穿透深度.实验结果表明,亚微米光波导的传输损耗将随着波导尺寸和外部环境折射率的变化而变化,倏逝波的传输方式非常适用于高灵敏度探测,可应用于光化学传感器和生物化学传感器的设计.     

对推进我国高师院校音乐教育改革的思考

高师院校音乐教育是我国艺术教育的重要组成部分。当前推进高师院校音乐教育改革,要准确定位人才培养目标,加大课程设置改革与教学内容新体系的构建力度,注重师资队伍建设和音乐教学研究。     

论人们的思想形成发展规律与企业职工思想活动新特点

加强对人们的思想形成发展规律的研究与探讨,是企业在新形势下加强和改进思想政治工作的必然要求。本文在论述人们的思想形成发展规律三个要点之后,指出了企业职工思想活动的新特点与企业思想政治工作的新要求。     

论《全明散曲》所收散曲的体式及其特征

谢伯阳先生主编的<全明散曲>,展示了明代散曲的全貌,是目前收录明代散曲最全的集子.然而<全明散曲>中收录的明代散曲体式却鲜为人知,这里分三部分叙述:名称与分类;宫调与曲牌;用韵与语词,旨在揭示明代散曲体式的概貌.     

An approximation to the limit distribution of the epps-pulley test statistic for normality

Summary The approach of Epps and Pulley (1983) based on the empirical characteristic function is one of the most powerful tools for detecting any departures from normality. We obtain the first four moments of the limiting null distribution of the Epps-Pulley Statistic. Johnson- and Pearson curve fitting yields excellent approximations to simulated quantiles, and by modifying the test statistic the procedure may be carried out easily without the use of extensive tables for all sample sizes. Research done while the author was on leave at the University of Gie?en.     

试论邓小平国家安全观的形成及其特征

国家安全观是邓小平关于国家总体战略思想的一个重要组成部分。坚决捍卫国家利益和国家主权是邓小平国家安全观形成的前提；独立自主、和平共处五项原则是邓小平国家安全观形成的理论基础；为中国特色社会主义的经济建设创造和平稳定的外部环境，是邓小平国家安全观形成的出发点和立足点；不信邪、不怕鬼的精神是邓小平国家安全观形成的关键。同时，邓小平国家安全观具有目的鲜明性、战略性和开放性的特点。